A thorough examination of the impact of campaign politics on presidential elections in the United States is presented in this book. Using actual election results and empirical evidence, the author also incorporates data on additional factors such as media coverage, the impact of nominating conventions on public opinion, presidential debates, and other events such as staff shake-ups, endorsements and scandals. In so doing, Holbrook develops a model for testing campaigns and proves how campaigns play a key role in shaping public opinion and, ultimately, influencing outcomes.
Chapter 6: Campaigns, National Conditions, and U.S. Presidential Elections
Campaigns, National Conditions, and U.S. Presidential Elections
The analysis and discussion in Chapters 4 and 5 demonstrated that the major events of the presidential campaign—conventions and debates—usually produce significant changes in candidate support during the campaign. But that is not the end of the story. There are, of course, other factors that influence candidate support. First, there are other factors associated with the campaign that may influence public opinion. Specifically, there are other less noticeable and presumably less consequential campaign events. Second, there is also the phenomenon of momentum, which has been found to be an important factor in primary elections. Third, candidate support is also expected to be influenced by the prevailing national political and economic climate. In ...