- Subject index
Business Planning and Market Strategy offers students, entrepreneurs, and executives penetrating insights into developing business plans and market strategies that bolster the odds of succeeding in today's highly competitive marketplace. Rather than reduce the planning process to mechanistic, step-by-step instructions, which promote “thinking inside the box”, author E.K. Valentin provides practical planning guidelines that encourage creative strategic problem solving. Drawing on both his business experience and the business literature, he explains not only what entrepreneurs and executives should look at when pondering plans and strategies, but also what they should look for. The book's unique applied perspective, sets Business Planning '; Market Strategy apart from conventional “how” planning guides.
Chapter 10: Coping with Uncertainties
Coping with Uncertainties
It's a tricky deal, foreseeing what hasn't happened yet.
All business proceeds on beliefs, or judgments of probabilities, and not on certainties.
There are known knowns…. There are known unknowns…. But there are also unknown unknowns.
It ain't so much the things we don't know that get us in trouble. It's the things we know that ain't so.
Uncertainties pervade managerial decision making, including planning. They arise from two sources:
- Insufficient knowledge to predict future worldly developments and events
- Insufficient knowledge to predict decision outcomes, or payoffs, even if the world of the future were known
When gaps in knowledge cannot be bridged with facts, assumptions must be made. In effect, uncertainties raise questions that assumptions answer tentatively.
Making assumptions about the world ...