Correlation and Causation
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The ideal method of science is the study of the direct influence of one condition on another in experiments in which all other possible causes of variation are eliminated. Unfortunately, causes of variation often seem to be beyond control. In the biological sciences, especially, one often has to deal with a group of characteristics or conditions which are correlated because of a complex of interacting, uncontrollable, and often obscure causes. The degree of correlation between the two variables can be calculated by well-known methods, but when it is found it gives merely the resultant of all connecting paths of influence. The present paper is an attempt to present a method of measuring direct influence along each seperate path in such a system and thus of finding the degree to which variation of a given effect is determined by each particular cause. The method depends on the combination of knowledge as may be possessed of the causal relations. In cases in which the causal relations are uncertain the method can be used to find the logical consequences of any particular hypothesis in regard to them.
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