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Risk Assessment, Actuarial

Actuarial risk assessment measures consist of a set of predetermined risk factors (sometimes statistically weighted) that are combined based on an algorithm, which produces a total score that is associated with a final risk estimate or probabilistic statement regarding the likelihood of future recidivism. When assessing risk of general and sexual violence, two commonly used actuarial risk assessment measures are the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide (VRAG) and the Static-99, respectively. Although there has been extensive development and validation of actuarial measures with adult offender populations, there has been limited uptake of purely actuarial measures among young offenders with measures such as the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory representing an adjusted actuarial approach (i.e., lacking in the probabilistic estimate of risk).

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