Actuarial Prediction

Actuarial prediction is a model for psychological decision making in which the decisions or evaluations are based strictly on numerical combinations of past information and not on human clinical judgment in estimated projections of future behavior. Actuarial prediction requires that the empirical determination of relationships that might exist between psychological test data and certain personality nontest behavior be quantifiable. The actuarial prediction model requires the accumulation of substantial, relevant empirical data from an appropriate population on which decisions are to be made. In 1954, Paul Meehl provided the classic analysis in his book titled Clinical VersusStatistical Prediction that introduced this model to the field of psychological assessment. He initiated a great deal of research that established behavioral correlates for the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI) ...