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Planning Fallacy
Definition
The planning fallacy refers to a specific form of optimistic bias wherein people underestimate the time that it will take to complete an upcoming task even though they are fully aware that similar tasks have taken longer in the past. An intriguing aspect of this phenomenon is that people simultaneously hold both optimistic beliefs (concerning the specific future task) as well as more realistic beliefs (concerning relevant past experiences). When it comes to planning the future, people can know the past and yet be doomed to repeat it.
The tendency to underestimate task completion times has important practical implications. Governments, businesses, and individuals all spend a considerable amount of time, money, and effort trying to forecast how long projects will take to complete. In daily ...
- Action Control
- Action Identification Theory
- Adaptive Unconscious
- Apparent Mental Causation
- Approach-Avoidance Conflict
- Authenticity
- Auto-Motive Model
- Autonomy
- Behavioral Contagion
- Choking Under Pressure
- Control
- Controlled Processes
- Decision Making
- Delay of Gratification
- Drive Theory
- Ego Depletion
- Excitation-Transfer Theory
- Extrinsic Motivation
- Feedback Loop
- Free Will, Study of
- Goals
- Grim Necessities
- Guilty Pleasures
- Habits
- Helplessness, Learned
- Home-Field Advantage and Disadvantage
- Hormones and Behavior
- Implementation Intentions
- Intrinsic Motivation
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- Locus of Control
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- Meta-Awareness
- Mindfulness and Mindlessness
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- Procrastination
- Reasoned Action Theory
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- Rubicon Model of Action Phases
- Scripts
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- Self-Defeating Behavior
- Self-Determination Theory
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- Self-Efficacy
- Self-Handicapping
- Self-Regulation
- Social Facilitation
- Social Learning
- Social Loafing
- Stereotype Threat
- Stress Appraisal Theory (Primary and Secondary Appraisal)
- Temporal Construal Theory
- Theory of Planned Behavior
- Zeal
- Antisocial Behaviors
- Aggression
- Antisocial Behavior
- Aversive Racism
- Betrayal
- Bobo Doll Studies
- Bullying
- Catharsis of Aggression
- Cheater-Detection Mechanism
- Conflict Resolution
- Date Rape
- Deception (Lying)
- Displaced Aggression
- Frustration–Aggression Hypothesis
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- Hostile Masculinity Syndrome
- Intimate Partner Violence
- Media Violence and Aggression
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- Moral Hypocrisy
- Narcissistic Reactance Theory of Sexual Coercion
- Ostracism
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- Terrorism, Psychology of
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- Attitude
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- Attitude Formation
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- Attitudes
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- Beliefs
- Brainwashing
- Cognitive Consistency
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- Dual Attitudes
- Effort Justification
- Elaboration Likelihood Model
- Forced Compliance Technique
- Forewarning
- Heuristic-Systematic Model of Persuasion
- Implicit Attitudes
- MODE Model
- Motivated Reasoning
- Polarization Processes
- Satisficing
- Theory of Planned Behavior
- Values
- Culture
- Collective Self
- Collectivistic Cultures
- Cultural Animal
- Cultural Differences
- Culture
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- Erotic Plasticity
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- Ideology
- Independent Self-Construals
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- Objectification Theory
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- Facial Expression of Emotion
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- Fear Appeals
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- Happiness
- Hedonic Treadmill
- Hope
- Independence of Positive and Negative Affect
- Intergroup Anxiety
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- Loneliness
- Love
- Mere Exposure Effect
- Moral Emotions
- Nonconscious Emotion
- Opponent Process Theory of Emotions
- Positive Affect
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- Evolution
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- Crowding
- Deindividuation
- Deviance
- Diffusion of Responsibility
- Discontinuity Effect
- Distributive Justice
- Entitativity
- Gossip
- Group Cohesiveness
- Group Decision Making
- Group Dynamics
- Group Identity
- Group Performance and Group Productivity
- Group Polarization
- Groups, Characteristics of
- Groupthink
- Ingroup-Outgroup Bias
- Intergroup Anxiety
- Intergroup Emotions
- Intergroup Relations
- Jigsaw Classroom
- Leadership
- Minimal Group Paradigm
- Minority Social Influence
- Optimal Distinctiveness Theory
- Organizational Behavior
- Other–Total Ratio
- Outgroup Homogeneity
- Polarization Processes
- Power
- Procedural Justice
- Realistic Group Conflict Theory
- Ringelmann Effect
- Risky Shift
- Robbers Cave Experiment
- Roles and Role Theory
- Rumor Transmission
- Scapegoat Theory
- Self-Categorization Theory
- Self-Stereotyping
- Sex Roles
- Social Compensation
- Social Dominance Orientation
- Social Identity Theory
- Social Impact Theory
- Social Justice Orientation
- Social Loafing
- Social Power
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- Subtyping
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- Health
- History
- Influence
- Compliance
- Conformity
- Debiasing
- Door-in-the-Face Technique
- Fear Appeals
- Foot-in-the-Door Technique
- Forced Compliance
- Forewarning
- Heuristic-Systematic Model of Persuasion
- Influence
- Informational Influence
- Ingratiation
- Ingratiator's Dilemma
- Inoculation Theory
- Mere Exposure Effect
- Milgram's Obedience to Authority Studies
- Minority Social Influence
- Normative Influence
- Norms, Prescriptive and Descriptive
- Persuasion
- Reactance
- Reciprocity Norm
- Reference Group
- Resisting Persuasion
- Scarcity Principle
- Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
- Sleeper Effect
- Social Power
- Stealing Thunder
- Supplication
- Interpersonal Relationships
- Attachment Theory
- Betrayal
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- Companionate Love
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- Decision and Commitment in Love
- Dependence Regulation
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- Equity Theory
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- Gossip
- Interdependence Theory
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- Intimacy
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- Loneliness
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- Matching Hypothesis
- Mimicry
- Need to Belong
- Nonverbal Cues and Communication
- Ostracism
- Pornography
- Propinquity
- Rejection
- Romantic Love
- Romantic Secrecy
- Self-Disclosure
- Self-Evaluation Maintenance
- Self-Expansion Theory
- Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
- Sex Drive
- Sexual Desire
- Sexual Economics Theory
- Similarity-Attraction Effect
- Social Exchange Theory
- Social Exclusion
- Social Support
- Social Value Orientation
- Teasing
- Transactive Memory
- Triangular Theory of Love
- Trust
- Unrequited Love
- Judgment and Decision Making
- Behavioral Economics
- Decision Making
- Fast and Frugal Heuristics
- Free Will, Study of
- Grim Necessities
- Group Decision Making
- Group Polarization
- Hindsight Bias
- Hot Hand Effect
- Hyperbolic Discounting
- Illusion of Transparency
- Illusory Correlation
- Ingroup-Outgroup Bias
- Integrative Complexity
- Law of Small Numbers
- Loss Aversion
- Mental Accounting
- Mere Ownership Effect
- Naive Cynicism
- Naive Realism
- Omission Neglect
- Overconfidence
- Planning Fallacy
- Pluralistic Ignorance
- Preference Reversals
- Prisoner's Dilemma
- Prospect Theory
- Public Goods Dilemma
- Recency Effect
- Representativeness Heuristic
- Risk Taking
- Risky Shift
- Satisficing
- Sequential Choice
- Simulation Heuristic
- Simultaneous Choice
- Social Dilemmas
- Spreading of Alternatives
- Sunk Cost
- Visceral Influences
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- Autobiographical Narratives
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- Bennington College Study
- Big Five Personality Traits
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- Bogus Pipeline
- Content Analysis
- Control Condition
- Critical Social Psychology
- Cross-Lagged Panel Correlation
- Deception (Methodological Technique)
- Demand Characteristics
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- Dynamical Systems Theory
- Ecological Validity
- Ethnocentrism
- Experimental Condition
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- Falsification
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- Identity Status
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- Logical Positivism
- Lost Letter Technique
- Meta-Analysis
- Mundane Realism
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- Operationalization
- Order Effects
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- Placebo Effect
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- Personality
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- Authoritarian Personality
- Babyfaceness
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- Control Motivation
- Curiosity
- Defensive Pessimism
- Depression
- Expertise
- Extraversion
- Gender Differences
- Genetic Influences on Social Behavior
- Hardiness
- Hostile Masculinity Syndrome
- Identity Status
- Implicit Personality Theory
- Individual Differences
- Introversion
- Locus of Control
- Masculinity/Femininity
- Metatraits
- Narcissism
- Narcissistic Entitlement
- Need for Affiliation
- Need for Closure
- Need for Cognition
- Need for Power
- Neuroticism
- Personalities and Behavior Patterns, Type A and Type B
- Personality and Social Behavior
- Power Motive
- Rejection Sensitivity
- Self-Complexity
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- Self-Control Measures
- Self-Esteem
- Self-Esteem Stability
- Self-Monitoring
- Sensation Seeking
- Sex Drive
- Sex Roles
- Shyness
- Social Desirability Bias
- Testosterone
- Thematic Apperception Test
- Traits
- Uniqueness
- Prejudice
- Problem Behaviors
- Prosocial Behaviors
- Altruism
- Altruistic Punishment
- Attraction
- Bystander Effect
- Compassion
- Cooperation
- Decision Model of Helping
- Distributive Justice
- Empathic Accuracy
- Empathy
- Empathy–Altruism Hypothesis
- Gratitude
- GRIT Tension Reduction Strategy
- Helping Behavior
- Negative-State Relief Model
- Positive Psychology
- Prisoner's Dilemma
- Prosocial Behavior
- Public Goods Dilemma
- Reciprocal Altruism
- Religion and Spirituality
- Search for Meaning in Life
- Volunteerism
- Self
- Actor–Observer Asymmetries
- Apparent Mental Causation
- Barnum Effect
- Basking in Reflected Glory (BIRGing)
- Brainwashing
- Close Relationships
- Collective Self
- Contingencies of Self-Worth
- Deindividuation
- Downward Social Comparison
- Ego Shock
- Egocentric Bias
- Escape Theory
- Executive Function of Self
- Exemplification
- Facial-Feedback Hypothesis
- Identity Crisis
- Illusion of Control
- Illusion of Transparency
- Impression Management
- Independent Self-Construals
- Ingratiator's Dilemma
- Interdependent Self-Construals
- Introspection
- Looking-Glass Self
- Mental Control
- Mere Ownership Effect
- Misattribution of Arousal
- Moral Development
- Mortality Salience
- Name Letter Effect
- Objectification Theory
- Optimal Distinctiveness Theory
- Overjustification Effect
- Personal Space
- Phenomenal Self
- Positive Illusions
- Procrastination
- Projection
- Psychological Entitlement
- Reactance
- Regulatory Focus Theory
- Roles and Role Theory
- Schemas
- Self
- Self-Affirmation Theory
- Self-Attribution Process
- Self-Awareness
- Self-Categorization Theory
- Self-Complexity
- Self-Concept
- Self-Concept Clarity
- Self-Control Measures
- Self-Deception
- Self-Defeating Behavior
- Self-Determination Theory
- Self-Disclosure
- Self-Discrepancy Theory
- Self-Efficacy
- Self-Enhancement
- Self-Esteem
- Self-Esteem Stability
- Self-Evaluation Maintenance
- Self-Expansion Theory
- Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
- Self-Handicapping
- Self-Monitoring
- Self-Perception Theory
- Self-Presentation
- Self-Promotion
- Self-Reference Effect
- Self-Regulation
- Self-Reports
- Self-Serving Bias
- Self-Stereotyping
- Self-Verification Theory
- Social Comparison
- Social Identity Theory
- Spotlight Effect
- Stigma
- Symbolic Self-Completion
- Terror Management Theory
- Threatened Egotism Theory of Aggression
- Uniqueness
- Value Priorities
- Zeal
- Social Cognition
- Accessibility
- Accountability
- Action Identification Theory
- Actor–Observer Asymmetries
- Adaptive Unconscious
- Alcohol Myopia Effect
- Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
- Assimilation Processes
- Associative Networks
- Attention
- Attribution Theory
- Attributional Ambiguity
- Attributions
- Automatic Processes
- Availability Heuristic
- Bad Is Stronger Than Good
- Barnum Effect
- Base Rate Fallacy
- Basking in Reflected Glory (BIRGing)
- Belief Perseverance
- Blaming the Victim
- Central Traits Versus Peripheral Traits
- Confirmation Bias
- Consciousness
- Contrast Effects
- Controlled Processes
- Correspondence Bias
- Correspondent Inference Theory
- Counterfactual Thinking
- Creativity
- Curiosity
- Debiasing
- Defensive Attribution
- Depressive Realism
- Diagnosticity
- Dilution Effect
- Discounting, in Attribution
- Distinctiveness, in Attribution
- Downward Social Comparison
- Dual Process Theories
- Egocentric Bias
- Emotional Intelligence
- Encoding
- Excuse
- Expectancy Effects
- Expectations
- Eyewitness Testimony, Accuracy of
- False Consciousness
- False Consensus Effect
- False Uniqueness Bias
- Focalism
- Fundamental Attribution Error
- Gain–Loss Framing
- Gambler's Fallacy
- Halo Effect
- Heuristic Processing
- Heuristic-Systematic Model of Persuasion
- Hostile Attribution Bias
- Hostile Media Bias
- Hot Hand Effect
- Illusory Correlation
- Implicit Personality Theory
- Inference
- Integrative Complexity
- Interpersonal Cognition
- Justice Motive
- Just-World Hypothesis
- Kelley's Covariation Model
- Lay Epistemics
- Lowballing
- Matching Hypothesis
- Meaning Maintenance Model
- Memory
- Metacognition
- Mimicry
- Mind-Wandering
- Misattribution of Arousal
- Moral Emotions
- Moral Reasoning
- Motivated Cognition
- Motivated Reasoning
- MUM Effect
- Nonconscious Processes
- Norms, Prescriptive and Descriptive
- Omission Neglect
- Person Perception
- Personality Judgments, Accuracy of
- Person-Positivity Heuristic
- Positive–Negative Asymmetry
- Primacy Effect, Attribution
- Primacy Effect, Memory
- Priming
- Projection
- Prototypes
- Recency Effect
- Responsibility Attribution
- Risk Appraisal
- Salience
- Satisficing
- Schemas
- Scripts
- Self-Fulfilling Prophecy
- Self-Reference Effect
- Self-Serving Bias
- Self-Verification Theory
- Shifting Standards
- Similarity-Attraction Effect
- Social Categorization
- Social Cognition
- Social Cognitive Neuroscience
- Social Comparison
- Social Impact Theory
- Social Projection
- Spontaneous Trait Inferences
- Spreading of Alternatives
- Subliminal Perception
- Subtyping
- Symbolic Interactionism
- Theory of Mind
- Thin Slices of Behavior
- Three-Dimensional Model of Attribution
- Transactive Memory
- Value Pluralism Model
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