The violence risk appraisal guide (VRAG) is an actuarial instrument that assesses the risk of further violence among men or women who have already committed criminal violence. On average, it has yielded a large effect in the prediction of violent recidivism in more than three dozen separate replications, including several different countries, a wide range of follow-up times, several operational definitions of violence, and many offender populations. It is the most empirically supported actuarial method for the assessment of violence risk in forensic populations.

The VRAG is a 12-item actuarial instrument that assesses the risk of violent recidivism among men apprehended for criminal violence. It was developed on 618 male violent offenders assessed pretrial in a secure psychiatric hospital; about half of them returned later for ...