Subjective Probability

Subjective probability is a measure of the degree of belief held for the truth of an answer to a question. It is used in the quantification of uncertainty due to lack of knowledge, also called epistemic uncertainty. The word epistemic stems from the Greek word for knowledge. It indicates that this uncertainty has its origin in the nature and limits of knowledge. In the case of epistemic uncertainty, there are several answers to a question that are considered as possibly true, while there is only one true answer. The true answer will either be deterministic or probabilistic, depending on the formulation of the question. Both may be subject to epistemic uncertainty. A probabilistic answer uses probability in its classical frequentistic interpretation to quantify uncertainty due ...