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Craig R. M. Mckenzie

In: Handbook of Cognition

Chapter 14: Judgment and Decision Making

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Judgment and Decision Making
Judgment and decision making
Craig R. M.Mckenzie

A habit of basing convictions upon evidence, and of giving to them only that degree of certainty which the evidence warrants, would, if it became general, cure most of the ills from which the world is suffering.

Bertrand Russell

The above quotation suggests that our ability to properly evaluate evidence is crucial to our well-being. It has been noted elsewhere that only a very small number of things in life are certain, implying that assessing ‘degree of certainty’ is not only important, but common. Lacking omniscience, we constantly experience uncertainty, not only with respect to the future (will it rain tomorrow?), but also the present (is my colleague honest?) and the past (did the defendant commit the crime?).

Understanding ...

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