Decision Analysis

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  • An analytical process for making decisions under conditions of uncertainty and complexity. Uncertainty can be caused by lack of information, lack of time, and other general factors that can “bound” the decision-making process. Complexity is usually a function of the intricate and intractable nature of the problem or issue. The analysis process involves breaking down complex decisions into smaller—more manageable— components. The smaller components allow decision makers to make simple and familiar choices.

    Since complexity and uncertainty bound the decision-making process, decision analysis uses existing literature and/or experts to develop estimates of the likelihood of particular events or outcomes occurring based on each small decision made. The aggregation of each small decision, via mathematical models, helps the decision makers arrive at a more comprehensive decision with ...

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