Target-Centric Network Modeling: Case Studies in Analyzing Complex Intelligence Issues
Publication Year: 2016
In Target-Centric Network Modeling: Case Studies in Analyzing Complex Intelligence Issues, authors Robert Clark and William Mitchell take an entirely new approach to teaching intelligence analysis. Unlike any other book on the market, it offers case study scenarios using actual intelligence reporting formats, along with a tested process that facilitates the production of a wide range of analytical products for civilian, military, and hybrid intelligence environments. Readers will learn how to perform the specific actions of problem definition modeling, target network modeling, and collaborative sharing in the process of creating a high–quality, actionable intelligence product. The case studies reflect the complexity of twenty-first century intelligence issues by dealing with multi–layered target networks that cut across political, economic, social, technological, and military issues. Working through these ...
- Front Matter
- Subject Index
- Process and Methodology
- Chapter 1: Introduction
- Chapter 2: Working with the Case Studies
- Case Studies
- Chapter 3: Narcotics and the Afghan Insurgency
- Chapter 4: Balkans Organized Crime
- Chapter 5: Democratic Republic of Congo Baseline
- Chapter 6: Democratic Republic of Congo: Gray Arms Traffic
- Chapter 7: Democratic Republic of Congo: Narcotics Traffic
- Chapter 8: Democratic Republic of Congo: Disease Outbreak
- Chapter 9: Democratic Republic of Congo: Likasi Chemical Plant
- Chapter 10: International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference Collection Plan
- Chapter 11: Mara Salvatrucha
- Chapter 12: Defeating the Balamiran Transporter Erector Launcher and Radar
- Chapter 13: Horn of Africa
- Chapter 14: Cyber Attack in the North Kelon Sea Region
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Tables and Figures[Page xi]Tables
- 2.1 6 × 6 Source Evaluation and Rating Schema 27
- 2.2 PMESII for Activity-Based Analysis 31
- 2.3 Example PMESII/ASCOPE Template 32
- 2.4 Intelligence Collection Plan: Sierra Leone Gray Arms Traffic Matrix 35
- 2.5 Partial Target Set: Sierra Leone Arms Traffic 36
- 5.1 Democratic Republic of Congo Forces Order of Battle 95
- 5.2 United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of Congo Forces Order of Battle 97
- 12.1 Balamiran SSM Range Parameters 193
- 13.1 Yemeni Regular Army Brigades 208
- 13.2 Yemeni Army Brigade Equipment 209
- 13.3 Yemeni Heavy Weapons Inventory 210
- 13.4 Yemeni Aircraft Inventory and Basing 211
- 13.5 Yemeni Naval Ship Inventory and Basing 212
- 13.6 Eritrean Army Units 214
- 13.7 Eritrean Air Force Inventory 214
- 13.8 Eritrean Naval Units 215
- 13.9 C-801 SARDINE Specifications 215
- 1.1 Intelligence Sharing in Network Versus Network 8
- 1.2 Intelligence in the Observe-Orient-Decide-Act Loop 9
- 2.1 Working with the Case Studies 12
- 2.2 PMESII System of Systems Framework 13
- 2.3 Cyber Threat Assessment Generic Problem Definition Model 14
- 2.4 Cyber Threat to Estonia Problem Definition Model 1.1 14
- 2.5 International Trade Issues Generic Problem Definition Model 1 15
- 2.6 Circumventing Sanctions Problem Definition Model 1.1 16
- [Page xii]2.7 Joint Task Force 76 Operational Environment PDM 1 17
- 2.8 Joint Task Force 76 Operational Environment PDM 1.1 19
- 2.9 Generic Arms Transfer Network Model 21
- 2.10 Viktor Bout Arms Transfer Target Network Model 1.1 22
- 2.11 Joint Task Force Arms Smuggling Target Network Model 1 23
- 2.12 Joint Task Force Pirating Target Network Model 2 23
- 2.13 Joint Task Force Mitambian Military Target Network Model 3 24
- 2.14 Transfer Model of Rundown Flats Property Target Network Model 1.1 39
- 2.15 Ownership of Rundown Flats Property Target Network Model 1.2 39
- 2.16 Social and Family Relationships among Owners of the Rundown Flats Property Target Network Model 1.3 40
- 2.17 Rundown Flats Property Transactions Target Network Model 1.4 41
- 3.1 Narcotics and Taliban Taxation 54
- 3.2 Helmand Tribal Laydown 55
- 3.3 Helmand Opium Production Belt 56
- 3.4 Opium Cultivation in Afghanistan during 2009 65
- 3.5 2009 Opium Production by Province 66
- 4.1 General Routes Used for Criminal Activity 71
- 5.1 Territory Controlled by the Mai Mai Kata Katanga and M23 91
- 6.1 Possible Arms Flow Route through Angola 104
- 6.2 Tor (SA-15) Surface-to-Air Missile System 111
- 8.1 Map of the Kivu Provinces 128
- 9.1 Katanga Province, Democratic Republic of Congo 142
- 10.1 Map of Singapore with International Maritime Defense Exhibition and Conference Location 156
- 10.2 Reported Anchorage Location of Patrol Boat 164
- 10.3 Sketch of Patrol Boat Taken from Imagery 165
- 10.4 Sea Shadow Stealth Ship 166
- 10.5 Norwegian Skjold-Class Patrol Boat 166
- 11.1 Mara Salvatrucha Past Activity in the Washington Metropolitan Area 173
- 12.1 Transporter Erector Launcher and Radar 184
- 12.2 Disputed Straits of Mira 187
- 12.3 Assessed Balamira Navy Regional Coastal Defense Cruise Missile Support Bases Laydown, August 2009 191
- 12.4 Balamira Navy P.15M/SS.N.2C STYX Prior to Display in Holk, March 2006 192
- 12.5 Maritime Commercial Activity in the Straits 193
- 12.6 Estimated Ranges of the Individual Regional Coastal Defense Cruise Missile Sites 194
- [Page xiii]12.7 Suspected Mined Areas 195
- 13.1 The Horn of Africa 196
- 13.2 Somalia 201
- 13.3 Yemen 203
- 13.4 Eritrea 204
- 13.5 Djibouti and Oman 205
- 13.6 Saudi Arabia 207
- 13.7 Yemeni Military Organization 208
- 13.8 Yemeni Military Deployment 210
- 13.9 Yemeni Air and Naval Bases 211
- 13.10 Eritrean Military and Paramilitary Forces Deployment 213
- 13.11 C-801 Missile Battery Deployment Pattern 216
- 13.12 C-801 Threat Area 217
- 13.13 The Three Parts of Somalia 218
- 14.1 North Kelon Sea Region 236
About the Authors
This workbook is designed to complement the textbook Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach, as well as other existing course texts on intelligence analysis. It is about creating and sharing models of intelligence problems and intelligence targets. Creating target models is something that intelligence analysts do routinely in the course of their work. The workbook further focuses on a specific class of target—networks—because most intelligence problems today in any field (such as national, military, law enforcement, and even commercial) concern networks.
The workbook is focused on the practical training and development of intelligence students and analysts. Its mission is to teach them to put the principles of target network modeling and analysis into practice. Through case studies and scenarios, readers will learn tools to succeed at defining the problem, decomposing it into constituent parts, and creating and using a target network model to produce finished intelligence. They will realize the value of collaboratively sharing the model. In short, they will learn how to create high-quality, defensible answers to a customer’s question. The workbook also includes an optional step of developing a collection strategy.
Part I of the workbook includes a brief review of intelligence analysis methodology, stressing the general basics of intelligence problem definition, model building, and the creation of network models. Chapter 1 briefly introduces two analytic concepts—the problem definition model (PDM) and the target network model (TNM)—and explains their importance. It concludes with a discussion of model sharing and how to do it effectively. Chapter 2 is an overview of how the cases in Part II can be used to create and use these models.
Part II comprises case studies based on detailed scenarios that allow students to develop competence in critical elements of intelligence analysis. Different exercises emphasize different parts of the intelligence analysis process. Some focus on problem definition and dealing with a customer’s poorly defined problem; others on getting the problem breakdown right; and others on the modeling or collaborative problem-solving stages, for example.[Page xvi]
Target audiences for the book include the following:
- intelligence analysis students and instructors
- active intelligence analysts from all organizational environments
- collectors who must develop targeting strategies and productively work with analysts
The workbook differs from others in three ways:It Is Internationally Relevant
The customer set and cases include international, national, military, and law enforcement customers of intelligence. Many texts on intelligence assume a U.S. audience and are targeted specifically at national policy or military intelligence analysis. The case studies presented here allow users to select from a wider cross section of intelligence customers.It Employs Realistic Intelligence Reporting
Each case study contains raw intelligence that is designed to give students a feel for the type of reporting they can expect in the real world. Students must deal with ambiguity, uncertainty, conflicting and contradictory reporting, and denial and deception.It Allows Instructors Extensive Flexibility
The workbook is tailored to provide ease of use for teaching the following:
- The material adapts to a standard semester or a short course: the text as a whole includes ample material to encompass a full semester, but each case study easily stands on its own for shorter courses.
- The design allows curriculum flexibility: instructors can choose analytic problems best suited to their classes by stressing or skipping steps in the analysis process.
- The format encourages assignment flexibility: cases can be assigned as whole-class, individual, or team projects.
- Multiple valid solutions exist: most exercise problems have more than one possible answer, as usually is the case in real-world intelligence issues.
- Many of the cases are easily adaptable to military doctrine: they can be used to generate standard documents such as an intelligence preparation of the battlespace (IPB), intelligence collection plan (ICP), high-value target lists (HVTLs), and target sets.
The cases in this workbook are based on fictitious scenarios. Many place names, equipment names, and organization names exist in the real world, but the events described in the cases generally are apocryphal.
[Page xvii]All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the authors and do not reflect the official positions or view of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) or any other U.S. government agency, the Royal Danish Defence College (RDDC), or any other Danish government agency. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or agency endorsement of the author’s views. This material has been reviewed by the CIA to prevent the disclosure of classified information.
This book would not have existed without the initiative and extensive inputs from Dr. Clark’s wife, Abigail, and we both appreciate her unstinting efforts. Dr. Clark also thanks his former colleagues in the DNI’s Intelligence Community Officers’ Course—Dr. Donald Cummings, John Allison, Peter Oleson, Marcia Barkell, and Dr. Gary Goodrich—whose efforts inspired the Democratic Republic of the Congo case studies. Dr. Mitchell would like to acknowledge the Danish Defence forces and the many there who have, over the years, facilitated a renaissance in military intelligence learning and practice, both in the classrooms of the Royal Danish Defence College, and on operations overseas. In this regard, his special thanks go to Brigadier General Lennie Fredskov Hansen, Lieutenant Colonel Thomas Funch, Lieutenant Colonel Hans Henrik Møller, Major Niels Petersen, Commander Søren Spodsberg, and Chief Advisor Søren Kirkbak. We also wish to thank Suzanne Flinchbaugh, acquisitions editor; Davia Grant, editorial assistant; David C. Felts, production editor; and Megan Markanich, copy editor at CQ Press, for shaping the finished product.[Page xviii]