Resort to War, 1816-2007

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Edited by: Meredith Reid Sarkees & Frank Wayman

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    Acknowledgments

    This book would not have been possible without the tremendous teamwork of the entire Correlates of War (COW) community. Extraordinary recognition is owed to J. David Singer, the founder of the COW Project, and Melvin Small, the project historian, who were the authors of the two preceding COW war handbooks. They created a groundbreaking quantitative study of war and established a wide-ranging research project that has been a model throughout the world politics community. Their dedication as scholars and their political commitments as individuals have inspired a countless number of colleagues. They have encouraged and sustained this war update, and their professional and personal support has been invaluable. The entire COW Project is also indebted to Phil Schafer, who has done a lifetime of archival work that forms the bases of many of the COW datasets. His research and insights are behind many of the war narratives, and his dataset on States, Nations, and Entities has informed the discussions of the typologies of wars and of the war participants. Jeffrey Dixon, COW intra-state data co-host, has devoted tremendous effort in studying the intra-state wars and has contributed significantly to the further development and increasing specificity of the COW coding rules. Many COW colleagues have furnished helpful commentary and insights, especially Scott Bennett, Zeev Maoz, and Paul Diehl, the current COW director. The University of Michigan, the Pennsylvania State University, and the University of Illinois, which have hosted the COW Project over the years, merit special recognition. The staff of CQ Press have been wonderful to work with. Andrea Pedolsky, Editorial Director, Reference Information Group, and Doug Goldenberg-Hart, Senior Acquisitions Editor, have been most encouraging, understanding, and supportive. David Arthur, Anastazia Skolnitsky, Janine Stanley-Dunham, and Anne Stewart were instrumental in ensuring the professionalism of this work.

    In addition to our heartfelt joint expression of gratitude, each of us as co-authors need to acknowledge special work that was done for us separately. Frank Wayman would like to thank those who contributed on his end. Peter Brecke, a professor at Georgia Tech, kindly provided his own, unpublished war data to Frank Wayman and Atsushi Tago in 2003, permitting us to start with a cross-check on other published figures. At the University of Michigan-Dearborn, Courtney Dean, Kenn Dunn, Salam Elia, Dr. Mark Hoeprich, Nura Lutfi, Meaghan Ograyensek, Kim Ostrenga, Beth Rivard, Bianca Rus, Michael Taggert, Sarah Wright, and Sarah Yousif provided research support, often with special language skills. Thanks also to Dr. Robert Donia and Prof. Ronald R. Stockton. Especially helpful advice came from three skilled political scientists and treasured friends: Drs. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Michael Levy, and Paul R. Williamson. Bram Wayman, a Yale University computer coordinator, and Eric Wayman, a web developer in Ann Arbor, supplied computer assistance to “dad” along the way. Professor Ellen C. Schwartz, Frank's wife and also a scholar of Byzantine studies, deserves special praise. She was a constant source of much inspiration and support, as well as such sage advice as only a published author and skillful writer can provide.

    As for the special support team for Meredith Reid Sarkees, we are also grateful for the dedicated research assistance of Amy Frame, Carol Reid, Christine Sarkees, and John R. Sarkees. Further thanks go to Karen O'Connor of the Women & Politics Institute at American University for providing Meredith with a research home. Meredith is particularly indebted to J. David Singer for his willingness to read and comment upon the manuscript. She is also profoundly appreciative of the advice and the constant support and encouragement so generously proffered by David Singer and Diane Macauley. Most important, enduring gratitude goes to John R. Sarkees, who truly understands the magnitude of effort that this book has entailed. He has borne the many costs of this work with grace and an optimism that it would one day be completed.

    Finally, we are grateful to the COW “invisible college” of associates at universities across the globe who work together selflessly in support of the COW Project and in pursuit of a greater understanding of all types of armed conflict.

    Foreword

    As I watch the coauthors of this volume, and the research assistants who have done so much to move the enterprise along, my emotions are mixed. Certainly there is pride that I initiated this ambitious Correlates of War Project in 1963 and recruited an impressive team of students and colleagues, who have done much of the creative work and heavy lifting for more than four decades here at the University of Michigan as well as other places far and wide. It has been said that this project has been a driving force behind a major paradigm shift in the study of world politics. One result is that we have played a central role in moving the study of world politics in general, and armed conflict in particular, from a largely anecdotal field of study to one that is today considerably more rigorous, systematic, and scientific. Many questions that had been mere matters of opinion for decades or even centuries are now getting answers that, while not always conclusive, evoke considerably more confidence and consensus, and can be realistically affirmed or challenged.

    When I had initially described my ideas to Michigan colleagues and confessed my aspirations, Anatol Rapoport warned me not to hope for too much; we were not likely to come up with an integrated explanatory theory of war, he said, but at the least we would lay to rest many of the foolish and self-serving platitudes that had characterized the field and led all too many nations into the brutal abyss of war. To date, his prediction has been correct—an interesting mix of success and failure. To be sure, we know quite a bit more about the origins and etiology of war, but at the same time we are not yet close to an adequate theory. Wars are all too different; nor are the roads to war that visible.

    While the number of scholars and their students who follow the scientific style has gone from a few intrepid souls to hundreds in the United States, we have yet to see our ideas penetrate the national security circles around the world. This is certainly true here in the United States, where the policy community remains skeptical of quantitative analysis, despite its acceptance in the academic community. Given the motivation that propelled me into this project, I can hardly express great satisfaction in terms of its broader impact. Thus, as the COW team and its allies continue to chalk up valuable gains in research design, theoretical models, and empirical discoveries, we need to develop intellectual and educational strategies that will make our research more relevant to the political process and make the members of the policy communities more competent and more responsive to our growing bodies of knowledge. This new war data handbook—Resort to War—will play a crucial role in fulfilling that dream.

    J. David Singer, founder of the Correlates of War Project and emeritus professor of political science at the University of Michigan

    Preface

    I was skeptical when I hired on in 1964 as the “historian” on a project filling up with political scientists eager to quantify virtually any activity having to do with international diplomatic and military interactions. I did have some interest in social science, since my dissertation involved public opinion and foreign policy, but when it came to numbers, I was, as Dave Singer would accurately contend, “preoperational.” Needless to say, I learned a lot about the folks across the interdisciplinary wall, while I think I was of assistance to some of them who could not find Tuscany on a map or whose historical references went back only as far as the Korean War. They, of course, helped me to see how history could be more than a series of unrelated anecdotes. Along the way, they were amused by those same anecdotes at the legendary weekly seminars.

    The main problem I encountered working on the project at the start was one of data-quality control. COW was omnivorous, eager for whatever data I could provide and not always as interested as I was in their provenance. More important, I found myself often playing the role of historical grand poobah, pointing out that certain kinds of data were simply unavailable, or especially, that even when we had accurate datasets, some fanciful indicators that could easily be developed did not have face validity.

    On the other hand, I think I was of some assistance in constructing surrogate variables for complicated historical processes that did not do violence to history and that could be aggregated and analyzed with our then primitive tools in a meaningful way. Speaking of primitive tools, it would have been so much easier to begin COW in the present time, with the vast resources of the Internet available in multiple languages. We had to do it the old way in libraries, with dusty tomes such as our perennial favorite, the Almanach de Gotha, which is so little used now that one has to file special requests to retrieve it from storage.

    At the least, most of those tomes were more reliable than some of the seemingly authoritative information we might pluck from the Internet today. Indeed, I frequently have to tell students engaged in historical research with me that they should go the library to perform most of their work. When informed, some ask, “Where is the library?” Many of the political science students working as assistants on the project learned their way around the stacks, especially in the “D,” or Eurocentric area.

    I enjoyed working on the COW team. Almost all historians do their work alone. When I was an undergraduate, I looked forward to the time when I would be in a history department, talking with colleagues about our mutual research. Alas, although we share our ideas with one another at seminars and brown bags, most of us are too busy with our own work to take a serious interest in our counterparts' work and generally do not have the expertise in narrow subdisciplines to offer more than theoretical and stylistic commentary.

    Of course, working on an ever-growing team meant the need for larger grants. I was concerned about the amount of time COW people spent discussing, planning, and writing grant proposals every two years or so.

    One role that I played with some gusto was as the official respondent to Karl Deutsch. Deutsch, a brilliant polymath who knew a good deal about history, came into town periodically as COW's most distinguished consultant. On occasion, it was my task to gently challenge his memory of facts when he confidently lectured to COW political scientists about an obscure nineteenth-century Middle European war. It was difficult competing with him, since his charming Middle-European accent lent authenticity to his account.

    Despite some interest in quantification among economic and social historians in the 1960s and 1970s, most were not impressed with the work I did with COW. Leading two lives, I generally was careful to leave numbers out of my writing in modern American history. Once, when I included two figures depicting the opinion-policy relationship during the Vietnam War era, a colleague in an otherwise friendly review wondered why I needed to use them.

    More interesting, perhaps, my work with COW social scientists has taught me to begin my articles and books with lengthy methodological introductions and to insist that my students do likewise. And for this I am most grateful to my more scientifically oriented colleagues. Although explicit concern about “coding rules” may seem elementary to most other scholars, many accomplished historians still pay little attention to how they go about their business. Even though political science is the softest of the “sciences” and history is the hardest of the humanities, the twain still do not meet.

    Over the years I have been gratified to see how many students who worked on COW have achieved prominence in their discipline. It is also rewarding to witness the vast number of scholars outside of the project who have used and continue to use some of the data that I had a hand in developing. This important new volume will surely add to the utility of COW for the next generation of social scientists interested in trying to understand the problem of war in modern society.

    Melvin Small, Correlates of War Project historian and professor of history at Wayne State University

    Introduction

    In the midst of World War II, Quincy Wright, a leader in the quantitative study of war, noted that people view war from contrasting perspectives:

    To some it is a plague to be eliminated; to others, a crime which ought to be punished; to still others, it is an anachronism which no longer serves any purpose. On the other hand, there are some who take a more receptive attitude toward war, and regard it as an adventure which may be interesting, an instrument which may be legitimate and appropriate, or a condition of existence for which one must be prepared.1

    Despite the millions of people who died in that most deadly war, and despite widespread avowals for peace, war remains as a mechanism of conflict resolution. As Sven Chojnacki and Gregor Reisch recently observed: “[V]iolence at the highest level of armed conflict is still a way of enforcing decisions and allocating values.”1

    Given the prevalence of war, the importance of war, and the enormous costs it entails, one would assume that substantial efforts would have been made to comprehensively study war. However, the systematic study of war is a relatively recent phenomenon. Generally, wars have been studied as historically unique events, which are generally utilized only as analogies or examples of failed or successful policies. There has been resistance to conceptualizing wars as events that can be studied in the aggregate in ways that might reveal patterns in war or its causes. For instance, in the United States there is no governmental department of peace with funding to scientifically study ways to prevent war, unlike the millions of dollars that the government allocates to the scientific study of disease prevention. This reluctance has even been common within the peace community, where it is more common to deplore war than to systematically figure out what to do to prevent it. Consequently, many government officials and citizens have supported decisions to go to war without having done their due diligence in studying war, without fully understanding its causes and consequences.

    The Correlates of War (COW) Project was founded by J. David Singer in the hopes that the world would be more likely to avoid war if we understood it more completely. Over the years, the COW Project has produced a number of interesting observations about wars. For instance, an important early finding concerned the process of starting wars. A country's goal in going to war is usually to win. Conventional wisdom was that the probability of success could be increased by striking first. However, a study found that the rate of victory for initiators of inter-state wars (or wars between two countries) was declining: “Until 1910 about 80 percent of all interstate wars were won by the states that had initiated them…. In the wars from 1911 through 1965, however, only about 40 percent of the war initiators won.”1 A recent update of this analysis found that “pre-1900, war initiators won 73% of wars. Since 1945 the win rate is 33%.”1 In civil war the probability of success for the initiators is even lower. Most rebel groups, which are generally the initiators in these wars, lose. The government wins 57 percent of the civil wars that last less than a year and 78 percent of the civil wars lasting one to five years.1

    So, it would seem that those initiating civil and inter-state wars were not able to consistently anticipate victory. Instead, the decision to go to war frequently appears less than rational. Leaders have brought on great carnage with no guarantee of success, frequently with no clear goals, and often with no real appreciation of the war's ultimate costs. This conclusion is not new. Studying the outbreak of the first carefully documented war, which occurred some 2,500 years ago in Greece, historian Donald Kagan concluded: “The Peloponnesian War was not caused by impersonal forces, unless anger, fear, undue optimism, stubbornness, jealousy, bad judgment and lack of foresight are impersonal forces. It was caused by men who made bad decisions in difficult circumstances.”1 Of course, wars may also serve leaders' individual goals, such as gaining or retaining power. Nonetheless, the very government officials who start a war are sometimes not even sure how or why a war started. During the Cuban missile crisis, President John F. Kennedy was concerned with developing a more rational foreign policy decision-making process. Kennedy had recently read Barbara Tuchman's Guns of August, which detailed the miscalculations that led to World War I. He encouraged his advisers to read Tuchman's book and warned his crisis managers: “If this planet is ever ravaged by nuclear war—if the survivors of that devastation can then endure the fire, poison, chaos, and catastrophe—I do not want one of the survivors to ask the other, ‘How did it all happen?’ and to receive the incredible reply, ‘Ah, if only we knew.’”1 Santayana once said that if we do not remember the past, we will be condemned to relive it.1 In our age of nuclear weapons, the stakes of war are higher: If we do not understand the past and its wars, we may not survive to relive it—as individuals, perhaps even as a species.

    The Debate: Is War Evolving?

    Quincy Wright's observation about war is as applicable today as it was during World War II. War is seen differently by various groups of people, both within the general public and within the community of researchers who study war. Some see war as an unfortunate but still pervasive element of human experience. Others see war as a phenomenon that is undergoing fundamental changes in its origins and in the ways in which it is conducted. Others see war as an atavistic savagery left over from humankind's cruel past. This latter perspective has recently found support among both policymakers and scholars. Generally, they see history as a story of human progress, entailing not only advances in our standard of living but also movement toward a more peaceful, less warlike future. When the Cold War ended as the Berlin Wall was torn down, on November 9, 1989, euphoria was widespread. Francis Fukuyama, who was working at the Policy Planning Staff of the U.S. State Department, described the end of the Cold War as “The End of History.”1 In his view there was a growing convergence of states into a liberal democratic model. Wars, which in the past predominantly had had ideological components (liberals vs. communists, liberals vs. monarchists, liberals vs. fascists, communists vs. monarchists, communists vs. fascists, and so forth), would mostly disappear. In the same vein, President George H. W. Bush, for whom Fukuyama worked, announced a “New World Order,” which for many people meant that war was now obsolete. Similarly, President George W. Bush argued in his 2005 State of the Union address, “It should be clear that the advance of democracy leads to peace, because governments that respect the rights of their people also respect the rights of their neighbors.”1

    This same optimism was prevalent within the scholarly community as well. Following in the philosophical tradition of the early liberals, a plethora of scholars argued that the spread of democracy was going to bring about a “democratic peace.” Though there had been a wide diversity of opinion among the early liberals (including John Locke, Jeremy Bentham, and Adam Smith), common elements of liberalism included a generally positive view of human nature, a focus on individual rights, a pacific view of the state of nature, and a positive view of the role of citizens in government as a mediating force against unwise governmental actions, including war.1 Probably one of the most well-known statements of this perspective was put forward by Immanuel Kant, who, in arguing that democracies would be less warlike than their predecessors, claimed that a republic was “by nature inclined to seek perpetual peace.”1

    The reasoning as to why democracies would be peaceful has generally relied on either a monadic or a dyadic analysis. The monadic view (which emphasizes the attributes of a single country) argues that democracies are always more peaceful than nondemocracies because of their nonviolent norms or the restraint of the citizenry. The more constrained dyadic view (which looks at the relationships between a pair of countries) argues that democracies are less likely to go to war only with other democracies.1 Both variations of this democratic peace perspective have become increasingly popular among international relations scholars, and support for the democratic peace in a variety of statistical studies has led many to claim that the democratic peace is “as close as anything we have to an empirical law in world politics.”1

    A corollary of the democratic peace argument is the conclusion that since the number of democracies is growing worldwide, then the number of wars must be declining as well. This conclusion has recently been presented in the Human Security Report 2005. The report relies on the data generated by the Uppsala University's Conflict Data Program and the International Peace Research Institute, Oslo (PRIO), and it looks at wars from 1946 to 2003 to conclude that there has been a dramatic decline in armed conflicts around the world since the end of World War II. Thus it claims that those who believe that violence has increased are wrong.1

    Other scholars have rejected this optimistic view, on both theoretical and data-analysis grounds. John Mearsheimer declared, “[W]e will soon miss the Cold War,” and anticipated a bloodier set of conflicts.1 Others see the “democratic peace” as a statistical artifact that correlates, mistakenly, a decline in war with ideology, when it could more aptly be understood by political similarities, economic systems, trade, polarity, or alliances. For instance, was the low level of war in post–World War II Europe due to the spread of democracy or was it due to the fact that many of the pairs of democracies were in the North Atlantic Trade Organization (NATO) alliance against the Soviet Union and, so, less likely (as allies) to fight each other? Errol A. Henderson replicated one of the major democratic peace studies, that done by Oneal and Russett,1 and concluded that his finding should disabuse scholars of the notion that democracies are more peaceful.1 He found that democracies are not particularly more peaceful in relation with other democracies and that democracies are in fact more likely to initiate inter-state wars than are nondemocracies.1 Recent events have even led one of the primary proponents of the democratic peace, Bruce Russett, to claim that their point of view had been undercut and in particular that U.S. policy was “Bushwhacking the Democratic Peace.”1

    In addition to these competing perspectives, there have been a number of scholars who have claimed that wars are evolving or experiencing fundamental change. A common observation within international relations' scholarship is that the end of the twentieth century was marked by the relative decline in inter-state war and a corresponding increase in intra-state war. Many have seen these developments as harbingers of a complete alteration in the practices and incidence of war, in which new types of war are emerging.1 Consequently, there have been calls for the development of an innovative war typology to describe these “new” wars, including ethnic wars, peoples' wars, postmodern wars, and “wars of the third kind.” For instance, Donald Snow has argued that contemporary internal wars are more like international wars than traditional civil wars, leading him to call them “uncivil wars.”1In a related vein, Kal Holsti has argued: “War today is not the same phenomenon it was in the eighteenth century, or even in the 1930s. It has different sources and takes on significantly different characteristics.”1 He concludes that the wars we are currently facing are wars of a third kind, which he contrasts to institutionalized war and total war.1 The objective of “wars of the third kind” is to create a state, and Holsti argues that this process is fundamentally different from state formation in Europe.1 The characteristics of these “wars of the third kind” include: no fronts, no campaigns, no set strategies, the use of terror, the high number of casualties—especially civilian casualties—and little distinction between the armed forces and the civilian population.1 Similarly, Mary Kaldor highlighted new types of wars based on economic conflict and the activities of paramilitary actors.1

    Perhaps the most common of the claims for a new type of war is the argument that ethnicity is one of the most powerful forces in contemporary international relations, and that the contemporary international system is characterized by a proliferation of ethnic wars and ethnic conflicts, which are unlike conflicts in the past. This perspective was popularized by Samuel Huntington, who argued that the ideological conflict of the Cold War would be replaced by ethnic conflict along historical cleavage lines, or a “clash of civilizations.”1 Along these lines, it has become common to argue, as do Rajat Ganguly and Raymond Taras, that nationalism, ethnicity, and religion are the fault lines of contemporary international relations in the post-bipolar world.1 Michael Brown summarized this point of view: “Many policymakers and journalists believe that the causes of internal conflict are simple and straightforward. The driving forces behind these violent conflicts, it is said, are the ‘ancient hatreds’ that many ethnic and religious groups have for each other.”1 Similarly, David Lake and Donald Rothchild argued that the early 1990s can be characterized as a “new world disorder” characterized by “ethnic conflict.” They further note:

    Since the end of the Cold War, a wave of ethnic conflict has swept across parts of Eastern Europe, the former Soviet Union, and Africa. Localities, states, and sometimes whole regions have been engulfed in convulsive fits of ethnic insecurity, violence, and genocide. Early optimism that the end of the Cold War might usher in a new world order has been quickly shattered. Before the threat of nuclear Armageddon could fully fade, new threats of state melt down and ethnic cleansing have rippled across the international community.1

    The focus on ethnic wars also parallels research that conceptualizes the contemporary world as dominated by the North-South divide. In this view, wars, particularly inter-state wars, are being fought almost exclusively in the South, while wars in the North are less likely.1 While some theorists relate this divide to the importance of ethnicity in the South, others see the dividing line as being more one of development and technology.1 For instance, David Singer argued that the geocultural divide was being breached by the divide between the nuclear haves and have-nots.1 He concluded: “All of which reminds us that any reference to a clear dichotomous division on the basis of race or geographic position will lead to a gross oversimplification.”1

    Many of the theories that posit major changes in war are derived from examinations of only one type of war, generally inter-state or intra-state, and from examinations of war during relatively short time periods, frequently the post–Cold War era or the post–World War II period. A differing perspective arises when one examines the data on all types of war throughout a long historical period in order to gain an adequate understanding of war in all its manifestations. Here the evidence seemed more mixed, revealing a relative consistency in the overall experience of war, though there were fluctuations within the various categories of war. For instance, extra-state wars (or wars between a state and a non-state entity outside its borders, such as colonial wars) had stopped in the 1970s. Yet, intra-state, or civil, wars were becoming more common and more bloody. In the late 1980s, inter-state wars had been occurring at their usual expected frequency, rather than declining, and were still at higher levels than in earlier periods of our history.1 If these post–Cold War patterns continued until the new millennium, we predicted that the 1990s, which were supposed to be the first decade of the “New World Order,” would witness more wars than any decade since 1816. When we updated this analysis after the twentieth century had ended, our warning against premature optimism was confirmed. Inter-state wars in the 1990s (as in the 1980s) were still at higher levels than average.1 Intra-state wars were at a record high in the 1990s. Even extra-state war, which had seemed to cease in the 1970s and 1980s, reappeared in the 1995–2004 period. Consequently, the 1990s ended up being the decade with the most war onsets since Napoleon. Some of the patterns revealed in these earlier data would be consistent with a thesis positing that types of war may be substituted for each other and that reducing one type may just displace war into another form.

    The new data presented throughout this book constitute both an update of the war list and an attempt to increase its comprehensiveness by the inclusion of non-state wars. The implications of these data for the discussion of the evolution of war will be addressed in the concluding chapter, Chapter 7.

    The Need for Systematic Studies of War

    To both understand the nature of war and determine whether it has been increasing or decreasing, one needs to study it scientifically, to categorize it, and to measure it carefully and consistently over a long span of time. Though a discrete analysis of a particular war can provide a wealth of detail, context, and specific information, it can also be misleading if people attempt to utilize one case as an analogy for all wars. When trying to understand war, people have felt a need for such detailed and comprehensive information, and, sadly, they are often let down and misled. When writing The Wages of War, 1816–1965 in 1972, J. David Singer and Melvin Small discussed one particularly egregious example of a lack of scientific information, “a series of reports whose appearance can only be explained by a complete disregard for the most elementary rules of scholarship.”1 As revealed in The Great Statistics of War Hoax,1 several impressive-sounding sources, such as the United States Naval Institute Proceedings (“The Art of War,” 1960), the New York Times Magazine (1963), and Military Review (“The Art of War,” 1960, 1962), had all published almost identical reports on the frequency and magnitude of war. They reported that there had been only 292 years of peace since 3600 B.C., and that 3,640,000,000 people had been killed in a total of 14,531 wars during that period.”1 Each of these studies and a subsequent article in Time magazine (1965) cited a Norwegian source, but David Singer, during a year in Norway, was unsuccessful in locating this purported study. Brownlee Haydon, then at the Rand Corporation, finally discovered an article by Norman Cousins in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, December 13, 1953, saying that it was too bad that we did not have good data on wars, but if we had, scholars might find that since 3600 B.C., 3,640,000,000 people had been killed in war, and so on.1 Soon, these made-up “facts,” which Cousins had labeled “fanciful,” were being treated as real. One might have hoped that Singer and Small's report, amplifying Haydon's detective work, would have put this hoax to rest. But a decade later, in World Politics: Trend and Transformation (1981), Charles Kegley and Eugene Wittkopf wrote, “It has been hypothesized by Norman Cousins [cited in Beer 1974: 7] that since 3600 B.C. there have been over 14,500 major and minor wars which have taken the lives of over 3.5 billion people.”1 These two authors provide no words of warning to the reader concerning the misleading implications of what they had said in their widely used textbook.

    To appreciate the value of a scientific understanding of war, it may be helpful to view war as a disease, for which a cure might be sought. Such a cure requires some scientific knowledge of what cases have broken out, what course the affliction has taken, and what forces seem to be most strongly associated with a worsening or an improvement in the condition. To do this properly, it seems best to begin with distinguishing the cases into useful categories. Physicians, for example, have learned that it is useful to distinguish between two types of stroke, those originating from clots, which improve with the administration of blood thinners, and those originating from hemorrhaging, which are made fatally worse by the administration of blood thinners. Once these different categories are defined, cases of each type of disease can be identified and records can be kept of what is associated with the onset or cure of their condition. For instance, a great accomplishment in the twentieth century was the discovery that tobacco smoking is a major cause and risk factor in the onset of lung cancer.

    In this vein of discovery, J. David Singer created the Correlates of War Project in an attempt to apply the methods and procedures of the scientific method to the study of war—beginning with categorizing the participants in war, the various types of war, and the incidences of war, and identifying the elements related to the onset of war. Singer and Melvin Small hoped to provide sound data that would make possible the understanding of war and would facilitate steps toward peace. They hoped to ensure that people would be able to rely on factual rather than fanciful information.

    Brief History of the Correlates of War Project

    The rise of scientific and quantitative analyses of war began in the 1930s with the work of Quincy Wright and Lewis Fry Richardson, who developed comprehensive lists of wars.1 In 1963 J. David Singer launched the Correlates of War (COW) Project as a continuation of this endeavor to systematically describe and understand war, and the social and political conditions associated with war onset, with the ultimate goal of hopefully controlling or eliminating it.1 This book tells of the story of that COW Project, which continues as perhaps the longest-running research program in the study of international relations.

    The initial problems facing the project were daunting. Singer and his collaborator, Melvin Small, decided to develop a typology of wars that was based on differentiating between or among the different types of war participants. Wars were initially defined as armed conflicts that resulted in a minimum of 1,000 battle deaths. Their three basic types of war were: (1) inter-state, wars that were between or among states or members of the interstate system; (2) extra-state (initially referred to as extrasystemic), wars that were between a state and a non-state entity outside the state's borders; and (3) civil, wars that involved a conflict between the government and another group within a state. Singer and Small wanted to begin their study of wars by examining international wars, which encompassed inter-state and extra-state wars; however, before they could identify the wars, they had to first identify the potential war participants, or the members of the interstate system. Thus their project began with an attempt to identify the population of states, the results of which were published in 1966 as “The Composition and Status Ordering of the International System 1815–1940.”1 Subsequently, Singer, Small, and Bruce Russett expanded this list to include other entities that either had not qualified for system membership or were part of the broader international system in the twentieth century.1 With the potential war participants now identified, Singer and Small were able to focus on the primary project of identifying all of the international wars (entailing a minimum of 1,000 battle-related fatalities for inter-state wars and 1,000 battle-related fatalities per year for the system member in extra-state wars) that occurred after 1816. They also developed a dataset concerning the alliance behavior between/among system members. In 1968 David Singer edited a volume, Quantitative International Politics, which included both discussions of the quantitative method and some of the early statistical findings.1

    The first COW war handbook, The Wages of War, 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook, was published in 1972, and it included lists of all of the inter-state and extra-state wars. The data on each war included variables for battle deaths, start and end dates, initiators, and the victors in each. From these data, it was possible to compute such fundamental information as the percentage of war initiators who won, magnitudes of wars (measured by nation-months or the total of the number of states multiplied by the length in months of their war participations), duration, severity (battle-connected deaths), and intensity (fatalities per nation-month, per capita, and so forth). The second handbook for the project was published in 1982 as Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980.1 Here Small and Singer not only updated the data on international war but also included new data on civil wars.

    In addition to the specific data on wars, the Correlates of War Project was also interested in the correlates of war, that is to say, the other elements that might be associated with war. Thus additional datasets were developed that tapped into the correlates of war, beginning with the national material capabilities of states. For each year, the military expenditures, military personnel, energy consumption, iron and steel production, total population, and urban population were determined for each state in the system. From these data, each state's share of the overall system capabilities (or power) was computed. This allowed, further, an analysis of the structure and polarity of the international system. Subsequent datasets focused on alliance patterns between states, diplomatic representation, memberships in intergovernmental organizations, territorial contiguity, cultural groups, and trade. All these elements have been utilized by scholars in a multitude of studies that have enhanced our understanding of various aspects of war onsets. In 1985 Melvin Small and J. David Singer published an edited volume, International War, An Anthology and Study Guide, which included articles about the various ways in which war had been studied.1 This book not only included Small and Singer's discussion of international warfare, but it also presented an article by Charles S. Gochman and Zeev Moas (Maoz) that described a major advance in the project, the development of the Militarized Interstate Dispute (MID) dataset.1 MIDs are conflicts between states that entail fewer than 1,000 fatalities.1 In general, each MID, such as the Cuban missile crisis, represents a sequence of interstate interactions, including at least one threat, display, or use of force. Over 2,000 MIDs have been recorded by COW in the period since 1816, so there are over ten MIDs per decade. In most instances, inter-state wars are preceded by interstate disputes, and the MID dataset allows a study of the process leading to war. Additional data-gathering projects were established to examine conditions relating to the formation of MIDs. For instance, the Behavioral Correlates of War (BCOW) Project has examined in greater detail the sequences of military and diplomatic moves of these dangerous confrontations.

    Overall, the COW Project and its growing number of datasets have begun identifying many attributes of the international system and the issues leading to war. Some of the findings were collected in a 1990 volume edited by J. David Singer and Paul F. Diehl, Measuring the Correlates of War.1 The Project has also prompted the accumulation of a vast array of related data. A comparison of COW to other datasets was prepared by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla and published as The Scientific Measurement of International Conflict.1 Similarly, a comprehensive list of a vast array of empirical studies using COW data was presented by Brian Gibbs and J. David Singer.1 A former student of Professor Singer, Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, has written a book also available through CQ Press, Principles of International Politics, which is a sophisticated introductory textbook to international politics that presents students with a summary of many studies using COW data and allows them to learn how to test hypotheses using the data.1

    Work on the data is continuing throughout the COW Project, and it is anticipated that much of it will be published in the new Correlates of War series offered by CQ Press. Most recently, a two-volume work concerning alliances was written by Douglas Gibler as International Military Alliances 1648–2008, which is the first book in the COW series.1 This current book is the second work in this series, and it will be followed by a book on intra-state war by Jeffrey Dixon and Meredith Reid Sarkees and an examination of international rivalries by William Thompson. The reader may also wish to examine the COW datasets, which are available at the COW Web site, www.correlatesofwar.org. The current director of the Correlates of War Project is Paul F. Diehl of the University of Illinois. Previous directors have been J. David Singer of the University of Michigan and Stuart Bremer of the Pennsylvania State University.

    Purpose of This Work

    This book is the third war data handbook of the Correlates of War Project, following in the tradition of The Wages of War and Resort to Arms. The goal of all these books is to serve as a primary resource on wars that will be accessible on a number of levels to both students and senior scholars. The fundamental purpose of this volume is to gather together the COW data on wars—retaining the information from the previous handbooks yet giving particular emphasis to the developments of the past twenty-seven years since Resort to Arms was published. Not only does this volume update the data on all wars through 2007, but it also presents information on a number of newly identified historical wars, which were included as more original source material has become available. To a significant degree this work is also a chronicle of COW's theoretical evolution. It presents the coding decisions and rules that drove the data-gathering process and also describes the ways in which these guidelines changed and gathered specificity as the scope of the project grew and new types of wars were added.

    In this vein this handbook provides information on a new COW type of war, “non-state” wars, and describes the relationship of these wars to our other war categories. In fact, the discussion of non-state wars represents a major innovation in the Project, since for the first time COW has gathered data on conflicts that do not involve the governments of countries (or system members). The combatants in such wars could be entities such as nongovernmental organizations, private militaries, political entities that have not yet developed the requisite characteristics of system membership, or ethnic groups. From a historical perspective this category includes wars such as that between the Boers and the Zulus. This category is significant, since it constitutes about 10 percent of all wars and is a classification that has been omitted in other war studies. It is hoped that this expanded examination will provide a more comprehensive understanding of not only the trends in war but also the interplay among the types of war.

    Overall, this handbook is structured around four primary tasks: (1) to address the theoretical basis of the COW Project, which is the understanding of the international system that emerged after the Napoleonic Wars, upon which depend the COW definitions of system membership and the war categories; (2) to present the data of all categories of war—these data will include updates of the existing war types but also introduce a new category of war; (3) to provide brief descriptions of each war; and (4) to offer some analyses of war patterns, focusing on trends in the separate classes of war over time and their spatial distribution in regions. These patterns should reveal ways in which wars are evolving and which particular types of war are becoming more or less common over time. In addition to the separate analyses of each individual class of war, a composite list of all wars has been prepared and presented in the Appendix. A discussion of trends in evidence in this comprehensive dataset will return to the theme of war evolution that began this introduction. It will also facilitate consideration of the question as to whether there are connections among all the different types of war.

    Those of us associated with the COW Project are exceedingly fortunate to have been involved in discussions concerning the most important problems of peace and security in the modern world. The coherent framework of the project and the careful data gathering by a multitude of people have laid the foundations for this handbook. It is hoped that this work will be of assistance to the next generation of scholars who appreciate the value of quantitative analyses for addressing issues of war and peace.

    Quincy Wright, A Study of War, 2 vols. (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1942): I:3.

    Sven Chojnacki and Gregor Reisch, “Perspectives on War: Collecting, Comparing and Disaggregating Data on Violent Conflicts,” Beiträge aus Sicherheitspolitik und Friedensforschung 26 (April 2008): 244.

    Karl W. Deutsch, “An Interim Summary and Evaluation,” in The Correlates of War II: Testing Some Realpolitik Models, ed. J. David Singer (New York: Free Press, 1980), 292.

    Dan Lindley, “Is War Rational? The Extent of Miscalculation and Misperception as Causes of War” (paper presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago, April 2006), 23.

    T. David Mason, Joseph Winegarten, and Patrick Fett, “Win, Lose, or Draw: Predicting the Outcome of Civil Wars,” Political Research Quarterly 52, no. 2 (1999): 239–268.

    Donald Kagan, The Origins of the Peloponnesian War (Ithaca, N.Y.: Cornell University Press, 1969), 356.

    Theodore Sorenson, Kennedy (New York: Bantam Books, 1966), 577–578.

    Santayana, quoted in William L. Shirer, The Rise and Fall of the Third Reich (New York: Simon and Schuster, 1960), vii.

    Francis Fukuyama, “The End of History?” The National Interest 16 (Summer 1989): 3–5, 8–15, 18.

    Quoted in T. Purdon, “For Bush, No Boasts, but a Taste of Vindication,” New York Times, March 9, 2005.

    See the discussion by Michael W. Doyle in Ways of War and Peace (New York: W.W. Norton, 1997), 205–311.

    From “Perpetual Peace,” cited in Doyle, Ways of War and Peace, 251.

    For a complete discussion and testing of these two democratic peace propositions, see Errol A. Henderson, Democracy and War: The End of an Illusion? (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 2002).

    Jack Levy, “Domestic Politics and War,” in The Origin and Prevention of Major Wars, ed. Robert Rotberg and Theodore Rabb (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1989), 88.

    Human Security Centre, Human Security Report 2005: War and Peace in the 21st Century (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2005), 15, 17.

    John Mearsheimer, “Back to the Future: Instability in Europe after the Cold War,” International Security 15 (1990): 5–56.

    John R. Oneal and Bruce Russett, “The Classical Liberals Were Right: Democracy, Interdependence, and Conflict, 1950–1985,” International Studies Quarterly 41 (June 1997): 267–293.

    Henderson, Democracy and War, 156.

    Henderson, Democracy and War, 146.

    Bruce Russett, “Bushwhacking the Democratic Peace,” International Studies Perspectives 6, no. 4 (2005): 395–408.

    For a more complete discussion, see Meredith Reid Sarkees, “Trends in Intra-state (not Ethnic) Wars” (paper presented at the international, joint meeting of the International Studies Association, Hong Kong, July 26–28, 2001), 2.

    Donald M. Snow, Uncivil Wars (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1996), 1–2.

    Kalevi J. Holsti. The State, War, and the State of War (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1996), xi.

    Holsti. The State, War, and the State of War, 28.

    Holsti. The State, War, and the State of War, 38, 61.

    Holsti. The State, War, and the State of War, 37.

    Mary Kaldor, New and Old Wars: Organized Violence in a Global Era (Stanford: Stanford University Press, 1999).

    Samuel Huntington, “The Clash of Civilizations,” Foreign Affairs 72 (1993): 56–73.

    Rajat Ganguly and Raymond C. Taras. Understanding Ethnic Conflict (New York: Longman, 1998), xi.

    Michael Brown, “The Causes of Internal Conflict,” in Nationalism and Ethnic Conflict, ed. Michael E. Brown, Owen R. Coté Jr., Sean M. Lynn-Jones and Steven E. Miller (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1997), 3.

    David A. Lake and Donald Rothchild, eds. The International Spread of Ethnic Conflict (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 1998), 97.

    Rafael X. Reuveny and William R. Thompson. “The North-South Divide and International Studies: A Symposium,” International Studies Review 9, no. 4 (Winter 2007): 558.

    J. David Singer. “Nuclear Proliferation and the Geocultural Divide: The March of Folly,” International Studies Review 9, no. 4 (Winter 2007): 664.

    Singer. “Nuclear Proliferation and the Geocultural Divide,” 665.

    Singer. “Nuclear Proliferation and the Geocultural Divide,” 671.

    Meredith Reid Sarkees and J. David Singer, “Old Wars, New Wars and an Expanded War Typology” (paper presented at the joint meeting of the International Studies Association and the Japan Association of International Relations, Tokyo, September 20–23, 1996) and Meredith Reid Sarkees, J. David Singer, and Frank Wayman, “System Structure and Inter-State, Extra-Systemic, and Intra-State Wars” (paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, San Diego, April 1996).

    Meredith Reid Sarkees, Frank W. Wayman, and J. David Singer, “Inter-State, Intra-State and Extra-State Wars: A Comprehensive Look at Their Distribution over Time, 1816–1997,” International Studies Quarterly 47, no. 1 (March 2003): 49–79.

    J. David Singer and Melvin Small, The Wages of War, 1816–1965: A Statistical Handbook (New York: Wiley, 1972), 10.

    Brownlee Haydon, The Great Statistics of War Hoax (Santa Monica, Calif.: Rand, 1962).

    Singer and Small, The Wages of War, 11.

    Norman Cousins in the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, December 13, 1953.

    Charles Kegley and Eugene Wittkopf, World Politics: Trend and Transformation (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1981), 352.

    Wright, A Study of War, and Lewis F. Richardson, Statistics and Deadly Quarrels (Pittsburgh: Boxwood, 1960).

    Singer and Small, The Wages of War, 4.

    J. David Singer and Melvin Small, “The Composition and Status Ordering of the International System 1815–1940,” World Politics 18 no. 2 (January 1966): 236–282.

    Bruce Russett, J. David Singer, and Melvin Small, “National Political Units in the Twentieth Century: A Standardized List,” American Political Science Review 67 (1968): 932–951.

    J. David Singer, ed., Quantitative International Politics, Insights and Evidence. (New York: Free Press, 1968).

    Melvin Small and J. David Singer, Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980 (Beverly Hills, Calif.: Sage, 1982).

    Melvin Small and J. David Singer, eds., International War, An Anthology and Study Guide (Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press, 1985).

    Charles S. Gochman and Zeev Moas, “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1976,” in International War, An Anthology and Study Guide, ed. Melvin Small and J. David Singer (Homewood, Ill.: Dorsey Press, 1985), 27–36.

    Daniel Jones, Stuart Bremer, and J. David Singer, “Militarized Interstate Disputes, 1816–1992: Rationale, Coding Rules, and Empirical Patterns,” Conflict Management and Peace Science 15, no. 2 (Summer 1996): 163–215; Faten Ghosn, Glenn Palmer, and Stuart Bremer, “The MID3 Data Set, 1993–2001: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description,” Conflict Management and Peace Science 21, no. 2 (Summer 2004): 133–154.

    J. David Singer and Paul F. Diehl, eds., Measuring the Correlates of War (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1990).

    Claudio Cioffi-Revilla, The Scientific Measurement of International Conflict (Boulder, Colo.: Lynne Rienner, 1990).

    Brian H. Gibbs and J. David Singer, Empirical Knowledge on World Politics: A Summary of Quantitative Research, 1970-1991 (Westport, Conn.: Greenwood Press, 1993).

    Bruce Bueno de Mesquita, Principles of International Politics: People's Power, Preferences, and Perceptions, 3rd ed. (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2006).

    Douglas M. Gibler, International Military Alliances 1648–2008 (Washington, D.C.: CQ Press, 2009).

  • Appendix

    Appendix: Chronological List of All Wars

    Appendix

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