A Guide to Intra-state Wars: An Examination of Civil, Regional, and Intercommunal Wars, 1816–2014
Publication Year: 2016
• Provides detailed case studies of nearly 300 civil wars from 1816 to 2014. • Combines the systematic study of war with analyses of trends over time and regions. • Includes discussion of the different types of actors in international relations and presents data from the Nations, States, and Entities dataset. • Considers data describing non-state participants (rebels) in civil wars.
- Front Matter
- Back Matter
- Subject Index
- What Is War and Why Do We Study It?
- The Need for Systematic, Scientific Studies of War
- THE CORRELATES OF WAR PROJECT
- A History of the Correlates of War Project
- The COW Definition of War and Its Key Variables
- The COW Typology of War
- THE STUDY OF INTRA-STATE WAR
- Why Are Intra-state Wars Important?
- How COW Intra-state Wars Are Defined and Categorized
- Innovations in This Update
- INTRA-STATE WARS IN NORTH AMERICA
- List of Intra-state Wars in North America
- Individual Descriptions of Intra-state Wars in North America
- INTRA-STATE WARS IN SOUTH AMERICA
- List of Intra-state Wars in South America
- Individual Descriptions of Intra-state Wars in South America
- INTRA-STATE WARS IN EUROPE
- List of Intra-state Wars in Europe
- Individual Descriptions of Intra-state Wars in Europe
- INTRA-STATE WARS IN THE MIDDLE EAST AND NORTH AFRICA
- List of Intra-state Wars in the Middle East and North Africa
- Individual Descriptions of Intra-state Wars in the Middle East and North Africa
- INTRA-STATE WARS IN ASIA AND OCEANIA
- List of Intra-state Wars in Asia and Oceania
- Individual Descriptions of Intra-state Wars in Asia and Oceania
- INTRA-STATE WARS IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA
- List of Intra-state Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa
- Individual Descriptions of Intra-state Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa
Copyright © 2016 by CQ Press, an imprint of SAGE. CQ Press is a registered trademark of Congressional Quarterly Inc.
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reproduced or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopying, recording, or by any information storage and retrieval system, without permission in writing from the publisher.
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This book is dedicated J. David Singer, the founder of the Correlates of
War Project, and to all those who so selflessly worked on the project
in the hope that we can prevent war by understanding it.
Tables and Figures[Page vii]TABLES
- Table 3.1 List of Intra-state Wars in North America 35
- Table 4.1 List of Intra-state Wars in South America 125
- Table 5.1 List of Intra-state Wars in Europe 225
- Table 6.1 List of Intra-state Wars in the Middle East and North Africa 319
- Table 7.1 List of Intra-state Wars in Asia and Oceania 429
- Table 7.2 Indian Government Estimates of Battle-deaths in Punjab, 1988–1994 562
- Table 7.3 Maximum Estimates of Battle-deaths in Kashmir, 1988–2013 573
- Table 8.1 List of Intra-state Wars in Sub-Saharan Africa 605
This work was started with the support and encouragement of J. David Singer, and we mourn that he did not live to see its completion. Singer’s vision and commitment to the quantitative study of war created the Correlates of War Project (COW), which is now one of the most influential and enduring data-gathering projects in world politics. Singer and Melvin Small, the original project historian, established a framework and coding rules for the study of war that has guided the COW Project and much of the wider scholarship about war for more than fifty years. Singer was a rare academic who valued equally his research, his teaching, and his political activism. His eagerness to mentor students and colleagues brought an eclectic group of scholars into the fold of the COW community, and the expansion of the project, and its prodigious output, would not have been possible without the enthusiasm and tremendous teamwork of this group. The entire COW Project is also indebted to Phil Schafer, whose relentless data gathering has formed the bases of numerous data sets. COW’s survival and continued existence are also due in great measure to the leadership of its subsequent directors, Stuart Bremer, Scott Bennett, Paul Diehl, and Zeev Maoz, the current COW director.
David Singer and Mel Small were the authors of the first two COW war handbooks (The Wages of War and Resort to Arms), while the third, Resort to War, was written by Meredith Reid Sarkees and Frank Whelon Wayman. This book constitutes the fourth in the sequence. It also is being published as part of the Correlates of War book series established by CQ Press. CQ Press staff Andrea Pedolsky, Editorial Director, and Doug Goldenberg-Hart, Senior Acquisitions Editor, originally helped us frame this work and provided encouragement in working toward its completion. Similarly, the book would not have been finished without the patience and flexibility of James Brace-Thompson, previously Executive Editor of SAGE Reference, and Carole Maurer, Senior Developmental Editor, who gently prodded and cajoled us to stop researching and begin writing.
In addition to our collective gratitude to the COW community and to SAGE, each of us, as coauthors, wants to express our thanks to those who have helped us individually in this endeavor. Jeffrey Dixon would like to acknowledge the contributions of research assistants Breann Crane (for work on Latin America), Tara Braas Passini (for work on a few wars in the Middle East), and Kevin Tomaszewski (for citations, formatting, and helpful assistance on some cases in the Middle East and Asia/Oceania). During the early stages of the project, the support of Richard Stoll was essential, and some of the earliest Spanish-language data on Latin American civil wars was gathered by Rosa Sandoval-Bustos, with funding from the [Page ix]National Science Foundation. Katharine Dixon provided patient support throughout most of the project. Finally, we would like to thank coauthor Meredith Sarkees for her guidance early in the project and attention to detail during the writing process.
Meredith Reid Sarkees especially is indebted to and grateful for the dedicated research assistance of Jon Kotaska, who was so skilled at tracking down sources and information concerning some of the more obscure wars. Invaluable research assistance also was provided by Amy Frame, Christine Sarkees, Kerrie Sarkees, Carol Reid, and John R. Sarkees. Lois P. Reid and John R. Sarkees provided much-needed and appreciated editing assistance. Meredith also would like to thank Gediminas Vitkus for his insightful and thought-provoking discussions of the coding of the Forest Brethren war and for his willingness to share his own research on the topic. His research was also key in the coding of the war in Ukraine. Similarly, Meredith is grateful for the assistance of Jorge A. Restrepo in alerting her to the data-gathering efforts of CERAC, and for compiling summary Colombian fatality data. The history of the COW project was significantly improved by the comments and suggestions of Zeev Moaz, Paul Diehl, James Lee Ray, and Richard Stoll, and our exchanges brought back many fond memories of David Singer. Throughout this long endeavor, David Singer and Diane Macaulay epitomized graceful hosts as they provided Meredith with a welcoming place to stay during her visits to Ann Arbor to peruse the University of Michigan archives. Their counsel and encouragement did much to restore her soul. Meredith will never be able to adequately thank them for their influence on her life. Most importantly, Meredith is eternally grateful to John R. Sarkees, who truly understands the magnitude of effort that this book has entailed. He bore the many costs of this work with grace and an optimism that it would one day be finished. Finally, Meredith would like to thank Jeff Dixon, whose stalwartness, meticulous adherence to coding rules, and dedication to this project are the keys to its success.
Wars have been one of the earliest and most persistent collective human endeavors. Many other collective rituals have come and gone, but the practice of mass bloodshed has been a permanent feature of humankind for millennia. Political, economic, social, and technological changes over the course of history have shaped and reshaped warfare. But its main features remain constant. The characteristics of the phenomenon we call war have remained the same since the dawn of civilization: organized groups of (typically) men, equipped with instruments that are capable of causing severe physical damage, engage in a series of sustained violent clashes that result in large number of fatalities.
While these characteristics seem to be fixed, the nature of warfare has undergone dramatic changes over time. The Correlates of War (COW) project, as the first chapter of this book documents, was born out of an intellectual desire to understand both the nature of these changes and the factors that cause individuals, groups, and states to engage in warfare. In contrast to other attempts to do the same—and there were quite a few at the time—the project’s aim was to develop a science of conflict and peace, firmly grounded in systematic, empirical analysis. One of the first prerequisites of such an approach is the collection of quantifiable data on the phenomena under study. Again, as the first chapter of the book shows, the project evolved, expanded, and diversified. Yet, the fundamental philosophy of the application of scientific methods via the systematic testing of quantitative data on political, social, and economic factors related to war and peace remains the backbone of the project.
One of the key changes in the character of warfare was the relative decline of large-scale warfare between and among nations and the relative rise in the number and severity of organized warfare within states. The project’s founder and first director, J. David Singer, was one of the first to recognize this trend and to appreciate its importance. Therefore the second book that provided a systematic description of wars—Resort to Arms (1982)—devoted significant space to the study of a data set on civil wars. The third round of data collection on wars by Sarkees and Wayman—Resort to War (2010)—further expanded on this effort, providing systematic data on various intra-state wars and non-state (or communal) wars. The current volume focuses on various types of war within states, thus adding an important layer of data to the existing compilations of war data collected by the COW project.
One of the most important features of the book you are about to read—which applies to most COW data sets—is that it enables us to trace changes, dynamics, and evolution in intra-state wars over time. There is a glaring absence of systematic data and scientific analysis in the [Page xi]myriad debates in the scholarly literature and public discourse about the changes in the frequency, intensity, and nature of warfare in general and intra-state wars in particular. In part, the unscientific (or, as J. David Singer liked to call it, “prescientific”) nature of this debate was due to the absence of longitudinal data on these issues. With the current volume and the attendant data that are publicly available—the paucity of data on intra-state warfare can no longer serve as an excuse. Thanks to the Herculean efforts of Meredith Sarkees and Jeff Dixon, the raw facts about the changes in the number, severity, location, and participation in intra-state warfare are here; it is now the time for the scientific community to use these data in an effort to understand the nature of these changes and the factors that caused them.
An important tradition pioneered by the COW project in international relations—a tradition that by now has diffused to a large number of scholars engaged in data-based analysis of international processes—is to provide a transparent and detailed explication of the underlying logic of data collection, clear operational definitions of the basic concepts and variables, and a systematic description of the major trends in the data. This is the cornerstone of our ability to replicate analyses and to build cumulative knowledge on war. This book continues this tradition. Anyone wishing to better understand intra-state wars—what they are, what kinds exist, how they start, how they end, when and where they have occurred—would need to consult this book.
Although this book was written by political scientists, and although its focus is on the political aspects of intra-state wars, it is an essential resource for other social scientists interested in economic, social, political, or even cultural evolution. Sociologists who want to understand the causes and consequences of social stratification would need to consult this book. Economists who wish to understand the economic sources and consequences of warfare will need to use these data. Cultural and religious scholars who wish to understand the implications of cultural and religious divisions within societies would have to examine whether and how divergent groups within societies (perhaps divided along cultural, ethnic, or religious fault lines) choose to resort to warfare to resolve their grievances.
The Latin adage si vis pacem, para bellum (if you want peace, prepare for war) has long been a leading line in the study of political-military strategy. The philosophy of the COW project has paraphrased this adage into si vis pacem, studium bellum (if you want peace, study war). This book emerges out of an intellectual passion that rests on the belief that understanding problems is an essential stage in attempts at finding solutions. The study of war—at least within the COW tradition—is related closely to the study of peace. It is not only my hope but my firm belief that this book will contribute to our ability to devise strategies to increase peace and stability in societies that have or are experiencing internal war. Moreover, the study of intra-state wars that relies on the data provided by this book may well help improve the quality of life, human rights practices, justice, and equality in these societies.University of California, Davis Director, Correlates of War Project
I was skeptical when I hired on in 1964 as the “historian” on a project filling up with political scientists eager to quantify virtually any activity having to do with international diplomatic and military interactions. I did have some interest in social science, as my dissertation involved public opinion and foreign policy, but when it came to numbers, I was, as Dave Singer would accurately contend, “preoperational.” Needless to say, I learned a lot about the folks across the interdisciplinary wall, while I think I was of assistance to some of them who could not find Tuscany on a map or whose historical references went back only as far as the Korean War. They, of course, helped me to see how history could be more than a series of unrelated anecdotes. Along the way, they were amused by those same anecdotes at the legendary weekly seminars. The main problem I encountered working on the project at the start was one of data-quality control. COW was omnivorous, eager for whatever data I could provide and not always as interested as I was in their provenance. More importantly, I found myself often playing the role of historical grand pooh-bah, pointing out that certain kinds of data were simply unavailable or, especially, that even when we had accurate data sets, some fanciful indicators that easily could be developed did not have face validity.
On the other hand, I think I was of some assistance in constructing surrogate variables for complicated historical processes that did not do violence to history and that could be aggregated and analyzed with our then-primitive tools in a meaningful way. Speaking of primitive tools, it would have been so much easier to begin COW in the present time, with the vast resources of the Internet available in multiple languages. We had to do it the old way in libraries with dusty tomes such as our perennial favorite, the Almanach de Gotha, which is so little used now that one has to file special requests to retrieve it from storage. At the least, most of those tomes were more reliable than some of the seemingly authoritative information we might pluck from the Internet today. Indeed, I frequently have to tell students engaged in historical research with me that they should go the library to perform most of their work. When informed, some ask, “Where is the library?” Many of the political science students working as assistants on the project learned their way around the stacks, especially in the D, or Eurocentric, area. I enjoyed working on the COW team because almost all historians do their work alone. When I was an undergraduate, I looked forward to the time when I would be in a history department, talking with colleagues about our mutual research. Alas, although we share our ideas with one another at seminars and brown bags, most of us are too busy with our own work to take a serious interest in our counterparts’ work and generally do not have the expertise in narrow subdisciplines to offer more than theoretical [Page xiii]and stylistic commentary. Of course, working on an ever-growing team meant the need for larger grants. I was concerned about the amount of time COW people spent discussing, planning, and writing grant proposals every two years or so.
One role that I played with some gusto was as the official respondent to Karl Deutsch. Deutsch, a brilliant polymath who knew a good deal about history, came into town periodically as COW’s most distinguished consultant. On occasion, it was my task gently to challenge his memory or facts when he lectured confidently to COW political scientists about an obscure nineteenth-century Middle European war. It was difficult competing with him because his charming Middle-European accent lent authenticity to his account.
Despite some interest in quantification among economic and social historians in the 1960s and 1970s, most were not impressed with the work I did with COW. Leading two lives, I generally was careful to leave numbers out of my writing in modern American history. Once, when I included two figures depicting the opinion–policy relationship during the Vietnam War era, a colleague in an otherwise friendly review wondered why I needed to use them.
More interesting, perhaps, my work with COW social scientists has taught me to begin my articles and books with lengthy methodological introductions and to insist that my students do likewise. And for this I am most grateful to my more scientifically oriented colleagues. Although explicit concern about coding rules may seem elementary to most other scholars, many accomplished historians still pay little attention to how they go about their business. Even though political science is the softest of the sciences and history is the hardest of the humanities, the twain still do not meet. Over the years I have been gratified to see how many students who worked on COW have achieved prominence in their disciplines. It is also rewarding to witness the vast number of scholars outside of the project who have used and continue to use some of the data that I had a hand in developing.
This important new volume will surely add to the utility of COW for the next generation of social scientists interested in trying to understand the problem of war in modern society. In Wages of War, David Singer and I focused upon inter-state and extra-state wars. A major advance in Resort to Arms was the addition of civil wars. There we also laid out a war typology of internal war that encouraged further data gathering on regional and communal violence. It is gratifying to see that Dixon and Sarkees have continued this work.Distinguished Professor of History Emeritus, Wayne State University and original historian for the Correlates of War Project
About the Authors
List of All Intra-state Wars in Chronological Order[Page 693]
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