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Chapter 6: Domestic Theories of War
In Principles, we observed how A's probability of attack depends on a threshold for p, the probability that A will win if A attacks B. In Principles, we also investigated how the probability of actually threatening country B depends on a threshold for X, the value of the status quo for country A. More specifically, if A believes that B will counter and A is prepared to fight rather than back down, then A threatens B, provided that its policy status quo, X, meets the following condition: X < (1 + Ψ) p + Ψ (m – 1) – ka.
Recall that Ψ measures the cost to a leader if she loses office. Ψ then ...