The Future of Global Conflict
Publication Year: 1999
This critical analysis of long-term trends and recent developments in world systems examines such questions as: Will the cycles of boom and bust, peace and war of the past 500 years continue? Or have either long-term trends or recent changes so profoundly altered the structure of world systems that these cycles will end or take on a less destructive form? The noted international contributors to this volume examine the question of future dominance of the core global systems and include comprehensive discussions of the economic, political and military role of the Pacific Rim, Japan and the former Soviet Union.
- Front Matter
- Subject Index
Part I: Different Predictions for the Future
- Chapter 2: From Leadership to Organization: The Evolution of Global Politics
- Chapter 3: The Next World War: World-System Cycles and Trends
- Chapter 4: Beyond Cycles of Hegemony: Economic, Social and Military Factors
- Chapter 5: Hegemonic Transition, West European Unification and the Future Structure of the Core
Part II: Post-War Shifts in the World Political Economy
- Chapter 6: Global Cooperation or Rival Trade Blocs?
- Chapter 7: Clashes of Life Spaces and other Logics of Hegemonic Rivalry
- Chapter 8: Who Has the Most Fortune 500 Firms? A Network Analysis of Global Economic Competition, 1956–89
- Chapter 9: Twenty-Fifty: The Hegemonic Moment of Global Capitalism
Part III: Prospects for Potential Future Hegemons
- Chapter 10: Japan: A Hegemonic Power? Reflections on Economic Success and Possible Political Futures
- Chapter 11: Germany, the USA and Future Intercore Conflict
- Chapter 12: Future Hegemonic Rivalry between China and the West?
Part IV: Looking Back and Ahead
SAGE Studies in International Sociology[Page ii]Editorial BoardEditor
Neil Guppy, University of British Columbia, Canada [from no. 48 onwards]Associate Editors
Paul Bernard, University of Montreal, Canada
Y.B. Damle, Pune, India
Elizabeth Jelin, CEDES (Centro de Estudios de Estado y Sociedad), Buenos Aires, Argentine
Endre Sik, Institute for Social Sciences, Budapest, Hungary
© International Sociological Association 1999
First published 1999
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, transmitted or utilized in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the Publishers.
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British Library Cataloguing in Publication data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
ISBN 0 7619 5865 7
ISBN 0 7619 5866 5 (pbk)
Library of Congress catalog card number 98-61493
Typeset by Mayhew Typesetting, Rhayader, Powys
Printed in Great Britain by Biddies Ltd, Guildford, Surrey
Albert Bergesen is Professor of Sociology at the University of Arizona and has written extensively on the world system. He is presently working on a book, The World System of Art, which rewrites conventional art history since the Renaissance from a world-system perspective.
Volker Bornschier was born in Witten, Germany, in 1944. After studies in sociology, economics and psychology he received his PhD in sociology in 1972. His habilitation followed in 1976, when he served on the Faculty of Philosophy at the University of Zürich, where he has been a professor since 1981. He has published 12 books and numerous articles in leading social science journals and in edited volumes. His latest monograph is Western Society in Transition (1996). From 1983 to 1996 he was President of the World Society Foundation sponsoring social science research worldwide. Since 1997 he has been Director of the Sociological Institute of the University of Zürich.
John Borrego is an Associate Professor of Community Studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz where he teaches global political economy, regional integration and community development. His current research is focused on how North American integration and transnational production are structuring two local communities and daily life. His publications include two co-edited books, La insercion de Mexico en la Cuenca del Pacifico (1990) and Capital, the State and Late Industrialization: Comparative Perspectives on the Pacific Rim (1996).
Terry Boswell is Professor of Sociology at Emory University. His current research projects include a time-series analysis of revolutions in Europe since 1500 and a cross-national study of the relationship between class exploitation and income inequality. In addition, he and Chris Chase-Dunn are collaborating on a book about the future of the world system.
Christopher Chase-Dunn is Professor of Sociology at Johns Hopkins University and founding editor of the Journal of World-Systems Research. He received his PhD in 1975 from Stanford University. He is the author of Transnational Corporations and Underdevelopment (1985) with Volker Bornschier, Global Formation (1989) and with Thomas D. Hall, Rise and Demise: Comparing World-Systems, (1997). His current research is on the rise and fall of empires, globalization, the future of warfare, and popular responses to neo-liberalism. He is co-authoring a book on global democracy with Terry Boswell.[Page viii]
Roberto Fernandez received his doctorate from the University of Chicago in sociology. He is currently Professor of Organizational Behavior at the Graduate School of Business, Stanford University. His research interests include formal organizations, social networks and social policy.
Walter L. Goldfrank is Professor of Sociology and of Latin American and Latino Studies at the University of California, Santa Cruz. He is co-editor of World-Systems and Environmental Issues (1998) and has published many papers on social transformations and revolutions.
Gerd Junne holds a chair in International Relations at the University of Amsterdam. He studied political science, law and economics at the Free University of Berlin and the University of Geneva. His book publications deal with multinational corporations, international dependency, game theory and critical studies of social sciences. He initiated the Biotechnology and Development Monitor, published by the University of Amsterdam in cooperation with the Dutch Ministry of Foreigh Affairs, and wrote extensively on the impact of new technologies and the development of the international division of labour. His actual research concentrates on the link between processes of privatization and globalization.
George Modelski is Professor of Political Science Emeritus at the University of Washington, Seattle. His most recent book, Leading Sectors and World Powers: The Coevolution of Global Economics and Politics (1996), was coauthored with William R. Thompson. His current research includes evolutionary world politics and world-system history.
Bruce M. Podobnik is a PhD candidate in sociology at Johns Hopkins University. He is the author of ‘Revolutionary terrorism in the periphery: a comparative analysis of the Shining Path and the Khmer Rouge’, in William Smith and Patricio Korzeniewicz (eds), Latin America in the World-Economy (1996). He is currently working on a dissertation analysing the energy foundations of the modern world economy.
Brigitte Schulz is an Associate Professor of Political Science at Trinity College in Hartford, CT. She is the author of Development Policy in the Cold War Era (1995) and co-editor of The Soviet Bloc and the Third World (1989). She has also written numerous articles and book chapters on the former GDR, Germany's aid and trade policies vis-à-vis the Third World, and problems of unification. Her current research compares German and Japanese foreign policy behaviour in the post Cold War era.
Tiering Su teaches at the Department of Sociology and Criminal Justice of the State University of New York at Plattsburgh. He is currently analysing global trade networks from the early twentieth century to the present.
Erich Weede is Professor of Sociology at the University of Bonn, Germany. From 1978 to 1997 he was Professor of Sociology at the University of [Page ix]Cologne. He is a member of the editorial board of International Interactions, the Journal of Conflict Resolution and Pacific Focus. He has written eight books, the most recent being Economic Development, Social Order and World Politics, with Special Emphasis on War, Freedom, the Rise and Decline of the West, and the Future of East Asia (1996). He has contributed more than 130 papers to a variety of American, European, and Asian publications – about half in English and half in German. His main research topics are deterrence and causes of war; violence, rebellion and revolution; determinants and correlates of economic growth rates and income distributions in cross-national perspective; and the rational choice approach to the social sciences.
Yasusada Yawata was born in Otaru, Hokkaido, Japan. He studied philosophy at the Sophia University in Tokyo, and sociology at the University of Munich, Germany. He worked then as a journalist of international economy for 10 years in Germany. In Japan he taught sociology at Nihon University, and since 1987 he has been Professor for Sociology at the Sophia University. His main field of interest is industrial development in non-Western societies.[Page x]