Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century
Publication Year: 2011
“With more weight of the global economy shifting to Asia and the region's rising global footprint, Asia's economies must take on new obligations as responsible global citizens. As this book points out, it is in Asia's self interest to preserve the Global Commons and, particularly, to take urgent action to mitigate climate change.”
— Horst Koehler, Former President of the Federal Republic of Germany
“Asia 2050 presents a bold and enticing vision for the people of Asia—a vision that is achievable through determined action by Asia's leaders on the national front, in promoting cooperation across the region, and in taking ownership of the global agenda. It is a remarkably balanced discussion of the challenges and the opportunities that lie ahead.”
— Hiroshi Watanabe, President and CEO, Japan Bank ...
- Front Matter
- Back Matter
- Subject Index
- Executive Summary
- Makings of the Asian Century
- Actions at Three Levels
- National Action Agenda
- Regional Cooperation
- Global Agenda
- Asian Century vs. Middle Income Trap
- The Intangibles
- Chapter 1: Introduction
- Why an “Asia 2050” Study?
- What is “Asia”?
- Is the Asian Century Preordained?
- Structure of the Book
Part I: Makings of the Asian Century
- Chapter 2: Asia in the Global Economy in 1700–2010: Setting the Scene
- Decline and Reemergence: 1700–1970
- Reaping the Globalization Dividend: 1970–2010
- Three Country Groups
- Chapter 3: Asia in the Global Economy in 2011–2050: The Main Drivers of the Asian Century
- Classic Drivers of Economic Growth
- New Drivers of Asia's Social Transformation
- From Growth to Social Well-Being
- Chapter 4: Asia in the Global Economy in 2050: The Asian Century
- Basic Assumptions
- The Asian Century
- Asia's Growing Output Footprint
- The Engines of the Asian Century: Asia-7 Economies
- Chapter 5: Realizing the Asian Century: Mega-Challenges and Risks
- Inequality within Countries
- The Middle Income Trap
- Competition for Finite Natural Resources
- Disparities across Countries and Subregions
- Global Warming and Climate Change
- Governance and Institutional Capacity
- Risk of Conflict
- Asia's Expanding Global Footprint
Part II: Realizing the Asian Century
- Chapter 6: Realizing the Asian Century: A Strategic Framework
- Three Dimensions
- National Action
- Regional Cooperation
- Global Agenda
- Chapter 7: Growth and Inclusion
- What Progress Has Asia Made?
- Import Substitution, Export Orientation, Poverty, and Inequality
- Poverty Reduction and the Millennium Development Goals (1990 to Date)
- What is Inclusive Growth?
- Why Focus on Inclusion and Equity?
- What is Asia's Status?
- Action Agenda
- Chapter 8: Driving Productivity and Growth
- Why Focus on Productivity and Entrepreneurship?
- Productivity and Entrepreneurship in Asia
- Getting Entrepreneurship and Innovation Right: PRC and India
- Key Elements of the Entrepreneurship and Innovation Ecosystem
- Overall Policy Framework
- Priorities and Action Agenda
- Chapter 9: A New Approach to Urbanization
- Looking Back 40 Years at Asian Cities
- Asia's Urbanization Avalanche
- Rural Development and Urban Development are Complementary
- Cities of the Future
- Major Risks to Be Managed
- Priority Agenda for Moving to a Better Urban Future
- Visionary Leadership
- Chapter 10: Transforming Finance
- Asia's Financial Rise: Past and Present
- Alternative Scenarios of Asian Finance in 2050
- Implications of the Asian Century for Asian Finance
- Conventional Wisdom in Finance: The Great Recession of 2007–2009
- Current Reform Proposals and Asia
- Asia in the International Financial Architecture
- Global Reserve Currency
- Future Asian Financial System: Taming Finance to Serve the Real Sector
- Transformational Changes to Serve the Real Sector
- Transforming Business Models for Asia's Financial Institutional Structure
- Regional Cooperation and Asia's Global Financial Leadership
- Priority Action Plan for Asian Finance in 2050
- The Importance of Using Global Best Practice
- Asian Finance as a Global Leader
- Chapter 11: Reducing Energy Intensity and Ensuring Energy Security
- Historical Perspective: Evolution over 40 Years
- Implications for Energy Security
- Implications for Climate Change
- Improving Energy Security Through Efficiency and Diversification
- Minimizing Damage from Sudden Supply Disruptions
- Priorities for Domestic Action
- Priorities for Regional Cooperation
- Chapter 12: Action on Climate Change in Asia's Self-Interest
- Emerging Economies' Contributions to Global Emissions
- Impact of Climate Change: Business-as-Usual Scenario
- Impact of Climate Change: Mitigation by Developed Countries Only Scenario
- Impact of Climate Change: Complementary Mitigation Actions by Developing Asian Economies Scenario
- Transition to Low-Carbon Economies
- Adaptation and Risk Management
- Global Burden Sharing
- Chapter 13: Transforming Governance and Institutions
- Analytic Framework
- The past 40 Years
- Governance Challenges in Asia Today
- The Corruption Dimension
- Drivers for Change in Governance and Institutions
- Key Actors of Institutional Change
- Principles and Priorities
- Chapter 14: Regional Cooperation and Integration
- The Importance of Regional Cooperation for Asia's Future
- Cooperation Instead of Conflict
- The State of Play 40 Years Ago: Asia in Disarray in 1970
- Forty Years of Progress with Regional Economic Integration: 1970–2010
- Drivers of Economic Integration
- Prospects for Further Economic Integration
- Contours of Future Cooperation and Integration
- Priority Areas to Facilitate Regional Cooperation
- Institutions for Regional Cooperation
- Prospects and Institutional Options
- Chapter 15: Realizing the Asian Century: Asia's Role in the World
- Dramatic Change in Asia's Global Footprint
- Implications of Asia's Global Role
- Global Commons
- Global Trading System
- Global Shipping Lanes, Trading Routes, and Communications Channels
- Global Financial System
- Climate Change
- Global Peace and Prosperity
- Relations with other Parts of World
- Development Assistance
- Impact of National and Regional Policies on others
- Global Governance
- Managing Asia's Rise
- Chapter 16: Conclusion: Cost of Missing the Asian Century
- Tackling Transformation
- National Action Agenda
- Regional Cooperation Agenda
- Changing Asia's Role in the World
- Priorities across Countries
- Need for Enhanced Resilience
- Cost of Missing the Asian Century
- The Intangibles
Copyright © The Asian Development Bank, 2011
The views expressed in this book are those of the authors' and do not necessarily reflect the views and policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB) or its Board of Governors or the governments they represent.
ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this publication and accepts no responsibility for any consequence of their use.
By making any designation of or reference to a particular territory or geographic area, or by using the term “country” in this document, ADB does not intend to make any judgments as to the legal or other status of any territory or area.
ADB encourages printing or copying information exclusively for personal and non-commercial use with proper acknowledgment of ADB. Users are restricted from reselling, redistributing, or creating derivative works for commercial purposes without the express written consent of ADB.
6 ADB Avenue
1550 Metro Manila
Tel +63 2 632 4444
Fax + 63 2 636 2444
First published in 2011 by
SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd
B1/I-1 Mohan Cooperative Industrial Area
Mathura Road, New Delhi 110 044, India
SAGE Publications Inc
2455 Teller Road
Thousand Oaks, California 91320, USA
SAGE Publications Ltd
1 Oliver's Yard, 55 City Road
London EC1Y 1SP, United Kingdom
SAGE Publications Asia-Pacific Pte Ltd
33 Pekin Street
#02-01 Far East Square
Published by Vivek Mehra for SAGE Publications India Pvt Ltd, typeset in 9.5/14.5 pt Helvetica Neue and printed at Artxel, New Delhi.
Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Available
ISBN: 978-81-321-0859-7 (PB)
The SAGE Team: Rudra Narayan, Swati Sengupta, Rajib Chatterjee, and Umesh Kashyap
List of Figures, Tables, and Boxes[Page xi]Figures
- 303.1 Asian total factor productivity (1990–2050) is converging with best practice
- 323.2 Working age population (20–64) will begin to decline in all Asian subregions (1990–2050)
- 333.3 Asia will account for 70 percent of the world's added capital stock between 2030 and 2050
- 353.4 PRC's middle class is about to take-off
- 363.5 India's middle class is about to take-off
- 373.6 Mobile phone subscriptions still have room for growth in PRC and India
- 767.1 Thailand: Poverty falling, inequality growing [Page xii]
- 827.2 PRC: Urban income deciles
- 837.3 Urban Gini coefficients
- 837.4 Spatial inequality: Human Development Index for country's highest-and lowest-ranking regions
- 847.5 Average years of school (age 15–19), lowest and highest income quintiles
- 857.6a Men's level of education in India (%)
- 857.6b Women's level of education in India (%)
- 867.7 Philippines: Prenatal care provision (%)
- 877.8 Indonesia: Hepatitis B vaccination coverage (%)
- 877.9 South Asia sanitation (%)
- 887.10 Gender inequality in Asia
- 917.11 Action agenda
- 1008.1 High growth in converging countries is increasingly a result of TFP improvement
- 1018.2 Entrepreneurship is correlated with TFP levels
- 1028.3 Asia's TFP has been growing fast due to very high growth in converging countries
- 1038.4 TFP levels and growth rates
- 1118.5 Trends in PRC scientific publications
- 1138.6 Asia's ranking on Ease of Doing Business indicators varies by region and income/convergence level
- 1148.7 Asia's physical infrastructure leaves much room for improvement
- 1158.8 Education index scores are correlated with TFP levels
- 1168.9 Asia must try harder on different education indices
- 1178.10 High-income countries in Asia have high secondary and tertiary enrollment, but others are far behind
- 1208.11 Asia's share of global R&D expenditure has been growing significantly and has surpassed the US
- 1218.12 Asia is home to a significant share of world researchers
- 1228.13 Asia's innovation scores vary markedly by subregions and convergence stage
- 15310.1 Baseline, 2009
- 15410.2 Asian Century scenario, 2050
- 15510.3 Middle Income Trap scenario, 2050
- 15510.4 Two-scenario projections for the Asian finance sector landscape, 2009–2050
- 15610.5 Two-scenario projections for the US finance sector landscape based on Asia's shares, 2009–2050
- 15610.6 Two-scenario projections for the EU finance sector landscape based on Asia's shares, 2009–2050
- 20412.1 Developing countries account for a greater proportion of current emissions than the G20 Annex 1 countries
- 20512.2 Three-quarters of the growth in combustion-related global emissions between 2002 and 2007 came from developing countries
- 20912.3 Asia has the ability and incentives to address climate change
- 20912.4 Action by Asian countries can significantly mitigate damage from climate change
- 21012.5 Emerging market action significantly reduces sea-level rise
- 21212.6 Major developing economies are responsible for a rapidly increasing amount of low-carbon energy technology patenting
- 22713.1 Asia has worsened in voice and accountability as well as political stability, but it has improved in other areas: Asia governance indicators (weighted by GDP)
- 22813.2 Asia-7 has outperformed the rest of Asia in governance: Governance [Page xiv]indicators (weighted by GDP)
- 22813.3 Asia-7 has outperformed the rest of Asia in governance: Governance indicators (weighted by population)
- 22913.4 Asia-7 has lagged behind the rest of the world in governance: Governance indicators (weighted by GDP)
- 22913.5 Northeast Asia outperforms other subregions in control of corruption
- 23013.6 Asia, including Asia-7, has underperformed the rest of the world in control of corruption
- 24814.1 Mutual trust: From conflict to cooperation
- 25014.2 Average GDP growth rates of selected Asian economies and subregions, 1958–2007 (%)
- 25114.3a Evolution of intraregional trade shares: World
- 25114.3b Evolution of intraregional trade shares: Asia and the Pacific
- 25314.4 East Asian exports in sectors with increasing returns to scale
- 25414.5 Parts and components trade in East Asia, 1990 and 2003
- 25514.6 Evolution of South Asia's parts and components trade, 1992–2008
- 25514.7 PRC's share of India's imports of manufactured goods, parts and components, 1995–2007
- 25614.8 Intra subregional trade costs in Asia and other regions
- 25714.9 Selected Asian countries in the tariff-freight plane
- 747.1 Poverty reduction in selected Asian countries, 1980–1990 (percentage of population under the poverty line)
- 757.2 Population living on less than $1.25 (PPP) per day (%)
- 817.3 Rising inequality in Asia (Gini coefficients)
- 867.4 Nutritional status of children in Pakistan (% of children below 2 standard deviations of mean)
- 20612.1 GEM cities feature prominently in the list of cities most exposed to half-meter sea-level rise
- 21412.2 Nine of the ten cities with the worst air pollution (particulate matter) are in Asia
- 21612.3 Substantial abatement opportunities that reduce costs are available
- 21812.4 Climate change adaptation types and examples by sector
- 24814.1 Moving toward cooperation without conflict: learning the lessons of history
- 25214.2 ASEAN: An example of constructive regional cooperation
- 25914.3 Central Asia's triple integration opportunity
- 27014.4 Regional cooperation and integration in South Asia
- 27114.5 Proposals for new regional institutions
List of Abbreviations[Page xix]
ABMI Asian Bond Market Initiative ADB Asian Development Bank AEC ASEAN Economic Community AFC Asian Financial Crisis AfPak Afghanistan–Pakistan AFTA ASEAN Free Trade Area AI artificial intelligence AMF Asian Monetary Fund AMRO ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office APEC Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation APG ASEAN Power Grid A*STAR Agency for Science, Technology and Research (Singapore) ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASEAN+3 ASEAN plus PRC, Japan, Republic of Korea ASEM Asia–Europe Meeting ASX Australian Stock Exchange B2B business to business BAU business as usual Bcm billion cubic meters BCG Boston Consulting Group BIMSTEC Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multisectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation BIS Bank for International Settlements BOMCA-CADAP Border Management Program in Central Asia–Central Asia Drug Action Program CAREC Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation CCS carbon capture and storage CMDA Calcutta Metropolitan Development Authority CMI Chiang Mai Initiative CMIM Chiang Mai Initiative Multilateralization [Page xx] CO2 carbon dioxide CSP concentrated solar power DAC Development Assistance Committee DMZ demilitarized zone ECA Economics of Climate Adaptation (group) EED energy efficiency and diversification EFSF European Financial Stability Fund EIU Economist Intelligence Unit EMEAP Executives' Meeting of East Asia and Pacific Central Banks ERPD Economic Review and Policy Dialogue ESCAP Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (of the United Nations) EU European Union FAR floor-area ratio FDI foreign direct investment FSB Financial Stability Board FTA Free trade area GCC Gulf Cooperation Council GDP gross domestic product GE General Electric GED Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index GEM G–20 emerging market (economies) GERD government expenditure on research and development GFC Global Financial Crisis GHG greenhouse gases GMS Greater Mekong Subregion Program GW gigawatts HIV-AIDS Human Immunodeficiency Virus–Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome HNWI high net worth individual HVDC high voltage direct current ICP International Comparison Program (of the World Bank) ICT information and communications technology IEA International Energy Agency IEO Independent Evaluation Office (of IMF) ILS insurance-linked securities IMF International Monetary Fund IMS International Monetary System IOSCO International Organization of Securities Commissions IPO initial public offer IT information technology [Page xxi] KEPCO Korea Electric Power Corporation KMDA Kolkata Metropolitan Development Authority KWh kilowatt hours LEED Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design LIH life and health insurance LNG liquefied natural gas Mb/d million barrels per day MDB Multilateral Development Bank MDF Municipal Development Fund MDG Millennium Development Goals MER market exchange rate MFSC Monetary and Financial Stability Committee (of EMEAP) MNC multinational company Mtoe million tonnes of oil equivalent NIC newly industrializing countries NIE newly industrialized economies NSTB National Science and Technology Board ODA Overseas Development Assistance OECD Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development OTC over the counter P&C property and casualty PFM public financial management PII Physical Infrastructure Index PISA Program for International Student Assessment PM10 particulate matter less than 10 microns in size PPP purchasing power parity P-PP public-private partnerships PRC People's Republic of China RIA-Fin Roadmap for Monetary and Financial Integration of ASEAN SAARC South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation SAFTA South Asia Free Trade Agreement SASEC South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation SCO Shanghai Cooperation Organization SME small and medium enterprises SPR strategic petroleum reserves TAGP Trans–ASEAN GasPipeline TAPI Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India Tcf trillion cubic feet TFP total factor productivity [Page xxii] TWh terawatt hour UAE United Arab Emirates UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNODC United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime VET vocational education and training VoIP Voice over Internet Protocol WBES World Business Environment Surveys WEF World Economic Forum WHO World Health Organization WTO World Trade Organization
The rapid rise of Asia during the last three decades of the 20th century is the most successful story of economic development in recent times. In the 21st century, Asia's rise has been equally impressive, notwithstanding the global financial crisis. Per capita income in developing Asia reached nearly $5,000 in purchasing power parity terms in 2010. Investment rates averaged 35 percent of GDP over the decade. The number of people living below the $1.25-a-day poverty line fell by 430 million between 2005 and 2010.
Developing Asia's V-shaped recovery from the recent global financial crisis and recession further proved its economic prowess and resilience. These achievements accent the region's potential over the next four decades to reach the per capita income levels of Europe today. By the middle of this century, Asia could account for half of global output, trade, and investment, while enjoying widespread affluence.
Many see the ascendancy of Asia—or “the Asian Century”—as being on autopilot, with the region gliding smoothly to its rightful place in destiny. But complacency would be a mistake. While an Asian Century is certainly plausible, it is not pre-ordained. When examining the region's economic and social prospects, one cannot help but notice its many paradoxes.
The world's fastest growing region remains home to majority of the world's extreme poor. “Factory Asia” may be a global hub for manufacturing and information technology services, but vast numbers of its people are illiterate and unemployed. While parts of Asia are aging rapidly, others have booming populations. The region holds the largest savings pool globally, but urgently needs massive investment in infrastructure and social services. Its financial sector remains largely underdeveloped. Asia is urbanizing fast, but its cities are becoming unlivable. While Asia requires massive resources to maintain its rapid development, global stocks of resources are dwindling. The Asian paradox offers both major challenges and opportunities.
Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century, a study commissioned by the Asian Development Bank (ADB), identifies these challenges and suggests ways they can be tackled. The book is candid in saying that Asian nations must act now—individually and collectively—to forge solutions. Delays and inaction will only make solutions difficult and costlier. Policies that worked when Asia was low-income and capital-scarce are less likely to work today and unlikely to work in the future. [Page xxiv]And, as an emerging global leader, Asia must embrace, promote, and advance global public goods—whether free trade, financial stability, climate change, or peace and security.
The book reminds us that challenges and risks are not mutually exclusive. They could impact one another, generate conflict, or build new pressure points within Asia, jeopardizing regional economic growth, and financial stability and security. Asia's paradoxes are neither new nor easily resolved. Widening inequalities, environmental degradation, and the threat of falling into a Middle Income Trap can only be overcome by well-integrated strategies and policies, coupled with the required institutional reforms. Effective regional cooperation is the bedrock for Asia's peace and prosperity. Building trust to assure shared interest in trade, financial stability, and access to natural resources will happen gradually and require leadership at country and regional levels.
These are long-term, generational challenges. Failure to meet them will deprive Asians from reaching potential affluence and greater well-being. We hope that political and economic leaders, the private sector, academia, development practitioners, and civil society will find this book useful when crafting long-term strategies and country-specific development programs.
A study on this scale could only come out of intensive consultations and pooling of expertise from an array of experts. ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration led this flagship project and many individuals contributed to the book. The book benefitted greatly from extensive country consultations. ADB's management team and I joined many of these. Feedback from the Governors' Seminar at ADB's 44th Annual General Meeting in May 2011 and the Asian Wise Persons' Group in June 2011 was particularly valuable.
Asia's march toward prosperity and freedom from extreme poverty will require more than simply high growth. An Asian Century is plausible if Asia builds on its success and focuses on innovation, entrepreneurship, inclusion, sustainable development, and good governance. The Asian Century may well be a century of shared global prosperity. But future prosperity must be earned. I firmly believe Asia's leaders will take up the bold and innovative national policies needed—while pursuing greater regional and global cooperation—to make the Asian Century a reality.
ADB President, Haruhiko Kuroda, provided vision and inspiration for the Asia 2050 study. His stress on intellectual rigor helped present a stimulating yet balanced perspective of the multigenerational challenges and opportunities facing Asia.
ADB Managing Director General, Rajat M. Nag, gave conceptual shape to this study and provided overall guidance. Iwan J. Azis, Head of ADB's Office of Regional Economic Integration (OREI), brought in his intellectual strength to lead the ADB team.
Important contributions were provided by ADB Vice Presidents, C. Lawrence Greenwood, Bindu N. Lohani, Ursula-Schaefer Preuss, Lakshmi Venkatachalam, Xiaoyu Zhao, and ADB Institute Dean, Masahiro Kawai.
Harinder S. Kohli, President and CEO, Centennial Group, the principal author and study director, gathered an international team of experts and worked tirelessly to put together this study. He, together with his two co-editors, Ashok Sharma, Senior Director, OREI, and Anil Sood, COO, Centennial Group, guided the authors to shape the thematic chapters of the book. The three editors together produced the final manuscript. Ashok Sharma also managed the ADB staff team, comprising Jayant Menon, Principal Economist, and Sabyasachi Mitra, Senior Economist, who contributed significantly to this study.
The core authors of the book are: Homi Kharas (Asia in the Global Economy in 1700–2010: Setting the Scene; and Asia in the Global Economy in 2011–2050: The Main Drivers of the Asian Century); Homi Kharas and Harpaul Alberto Kohli (Asia in the Global Economy in 2050: The Asian Century); Homi Kharas (Realizing the Asian Century: Mega-challenges and Risks); Harinder S. Kohli, Ashok Sharma, and Anil Sood (Introduction; Realizing the Asian Century: A Strategic Framework; and Conclusion: Cost of Missing the Asian Century); Jayant Menon, Sabyasachi Mitra, and Drew Arnold (Growth and Inclusion); Yasheng Huang and Y. Aaron Szyf (Driving Productivity and Growth); Anthony Pellegrini (A New Approach to Urbanization); Andrew Sheng (Transforming Finance); Hossein Razavi (Reducing Energy Intensity and Ensuring Energy Security); Cameron Hepburn and John Ward (Action on Climate Change in Asia's Self-Interest); Shigeo Katsu (Transforming Governance and Institutions); Johannes F. Linn (Regional Cooperation and Integration); and Harinder S. Kohli (Realizing the Asian Century: Asia's Role in the World).
[Page xxvi]Other contributors to the study are Amitav Acharya, Vinod Goel, Ramesh Mashelkar, Natasha Mukherjee, and Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize.
The study benefitted from Jong-Wha Lee, former ADB Chief Economist, and Srinivasa Madhur, former Officer-in-charge, OREI, who helped in shaping the study during its formative period.
Country consultations provided valuable insights and perspectives. The study team benefitted from the views of the following: Bangladesh: Abul Maal A. Muhith (Minister of Finance) and Atiur Rahman (Governor, Bangladesh Bank); People's Republic of China: Zheng Xiaosong (Director General, International Department, Ministry of Finance); India: Montek Singh Ahluwalia (Chairman, Planning Commission) and Kaushik Basu (Chief Economic Advisor, Department of Economic Affairs); Indonesia: Hatta Rajasa (Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs), Armida Alisjahbana (Minister for National Development Planning), Mari Elka Pangestu (Minister of Trade), and Emil Salim (Chairman of Council of Advisors to the President and Former Minister of Environment); Japan: Takehiko Nakao (Director General, International Bureau, Ministry of Finance) and Tatsu Yamasaki (Senior Deputy Director General, International Bureau, Ministry of Finance); Republic of Korea: Yoon Jeung-hyun (Minister of Finance), Jong-ryong Lim (Vice Minister, Ministry of Strategy and Finance), and Sung-gul Ryu (Vice Minister, Ministry of Strategy and Finance); and Viet Nam: Nguyen Van Giau (Governor, State Bank of Viet Nam) and Tran Xuan Gia (Former Minister of Planning and Investment; Chairman, Asia Commercial Bank). The study team would also like to acknowledge the views offered by senior policy makers, eminent economists, private sector leaders, and civil society representatives during the country consultations.
The study team gained from discussions with several think tanks and institutions. These included the Federation of Indian Chambers of Commerce and Industry; Central Institute for Economic Management, Viet Nam; Viet Nam Institute of Economics; Shanghai National Accounting Institute; Asia-Pacific Finance and Development Center, Shanghai; China Development Research Foundation, Beijing; Korea Institute for International Economic Policy; and Graduate School of International Studies, Seoul National University, Republic of Korea.
The Governors' Seminar at ADB's 44th Annual General Meeting in May 2011, provided the invaluable views of eminent policy makers, including Abul Maal A. Muhith (Minister of Finance, Bangladesh); Christine Lagarde (Former Minister for Economy, Finance and Industry, France; and incoming MD, IMF); Pranab Mukherjee (Minister of Finance, India); Li Yong (Vice Minister of Finance, People's Republic of China); Nguyen Van Giau (Governor, State Bank of Viet Nam); and Motoyuki Odachi (Parliamentary Secretary of Finance, Japan).
The study also benefitted from discussions of the Asian Wise Persons' Group in June 2011. The Group included Cesar E.A. Virata (Former Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Philippines); Anand Panyarachun (Former Prime Minister and Minister of Finance, Thailand; and Chairman of the Board of Directors, Siam Commercial Bank); Emil Salim (Chairman of Council of Advisors [Page xxvii]to the President, and Former Minister of Environment, Indonesia); R.K. Pachauri (Chairman, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; and Director General, The Energy and Resources Institute, India); Young-Hoon Kwaak (Professor, Jeju National University of Korea; and Founder/Chairman, World Citizens Organization); Phisit Pakkasem (Former Secretary General of National Economic and Social Development Board, Thailand); and Noritada Morita (Chairman and CEO, Asia Strategy Forum).
The study team appreciates the valuable inputs of senior ADB staff including Philip C. Erquiaga, Klaus Gerhaeusser, Juan Miranda, Sultan H. Rahman, Kazu Sakai, Kunio Senga, Changyong Rhee, Robert F. Wihtol, and Xianbin Yao. The study team also acknowledges the inputs of several ADB and ADBI staff including Noritaka Akamatsu, Gambhir Bhatta, Biswanath Bhattacharyay, Sekhar Bonu, Richard Bolt, Jorn Brommelhorster, Giovanni Capannelli, Jin Cyhn, Jesus Felipe, Edimon Ginting, Rana Hasan, Paul Heytens, Zahid Hossain, Xinglan Hu, Abid Hussain, Kavita Iyengar, Hoe Yun Jeong, Thevakumar Kandiah, Jong Woo Kang, Hun Kim, Ayumi Konishi, Mario B. Lamberte, Werner Liepach, Carmela Locsin, Anouj Mehta, Hiranya Mukhopadhyay, Omana Nair, Kuniki Nakamori, Krishnadas Narayanan, Thiam Hee Ng, Cuong Minh Nguyen, James Nugent, Stephen Pollard, Ann Quon, Vivek Rao, Jason Rush, Lei Lei Song, Meriaty Subroto, Anil Terway, Woochong Um, Victor L. You, Shahid N. Zahid, and Juzhong Zhuang.
The team of editors, Bruce Ross-Larson, Natasha Mukherjee, Richard Niebuhr, and Kevin Donahue worked together to give this report its final shape. Kathryn Grober of Centennial Group was responsible for putting together the final manuscript, with the help of Charlotte Hess in organizing, formatting, and checking the document.
Kothandan Balaji, Nguyen My Binh, Sheila David, Lan Thi Tuyet Duong, Mohammed Easin, Keiko Hamada, Maruf Hossain, Meenakshi Jain, Keiko Kawazu, Ma. Criselda Lumba, Tanaka Miwako, Akiko Mochizuki, Ma Nan, Carol Ongchangco, Wilhelmina Paz, Ma. Rosario Razon, Ayun Sundari, Jennifer Tantamco, Meity Tanujaya, Pia Tenchavez, and Charisse Tubianosa (staff); and Michael Bon Albarillo, Santiago Martin Barcelona, Kevin Donahue, Layden Iaksetich, Ivan de Leon, Aldwin Mamiit, Carlo Monteverde, James Ong, Lilibeth Perez, and Theresa Robles (consultants) contributed variously to project administration and logistics, arrangement and coordination of workshops, and consultation seminars.
[Page xxviii][Page xxix][Page xxx]
Appendix 1: Demographic Changes in Asia's Regions by 20501[Page 299]
By 2050, Asia will constitute about 52 percent of the global population, a little smaller than its 57 percent share in 2010, but with roughly 822 million more people than today.
Northeast Asia's share in all of Asia's population will have fallen from nearly 40 percent in 2010 to 31 percent in 2050. What is concealed in this general number is the fact that Japan and Republic of Korea's populations will continue to fall, and by 2050, will have fallen by 14 percent and 2 percent, respectively. New population projections, released by the United Nations Statistics Division, in May 2011, estimate that by 2050 PRC's population will have fallen by 3.4 percent, which represents 46 million fewer people than in 2010.
Southeast Asia is expected to grow faster than the Asia average and to have added about 164 million people by 2050. In the period 2010 to 2050, Indonesia will have grown by 22 percent, adding 54 million people to its total, and Viet Nam by over 18 percent with 16 million more.Figure A1.1 Population changes in Asia's subregions, 2010 vs. 2050
1 This appendix was written by Natasha Mukherjee.[Page 300]Table A1.1 Population changes in Asia, 2010–2050
Central Asia will add around 78 million people by 2050. It will be growing from relatively smaller absolute numbers—but in percentage terms this sub-region, especially Afghanistan and Iran, will be growing dramatically. It is estimated that Afghanistan's population will skyrocket from its current 31 million to 76 million; Iran will add about 11 million to its total population.
In 2050, Asia will be heavily influenced by the relative demographic weight of South Asia. South Asia (with India) is already more populous than Northeast Asia (which includes PRC). By 2050, just Pakistan will have added 100 million more people to the total Asian tally. The balance of Asia's population will shift further from Northeast Asia to South and Southeast Asia.
The Asian population giants, PRC and India, will see very different demographic trends. PRC's population is estimated to have already peaked around 2029; in 2050, PRC's population will be nearly 1.3 billion, 45 million less than in 2010. By 2050, PRC will thereby represent a smaller share of the total global population than before. India, on the other hand, will have grown by 467 million people to a total population of nearly 1.7 billion people in 2050; its share of the total global population will have grown to nearly 20 percent.
The demographic dominance of PRC and India notwithstanding, in the next decades the list of the largest countries in the world will continue to be dominated by Asia. Between now and 2050, there will be five additional Asian countries with the distinction of belonging to the ten most populous countries in the world: besides India and PRC, there will be, Indonesia (293 million), Pakistan (275 million), Bangladesh (194 million) and the Philippines (155 million) in the “top ten”.[Page 301]Table A1.2 Projected growth of Asia's elderly population (number of people, age 65 and above, in millions)Asia's Aging Trends
The demographic figures for Asia in 2050 impress by the sheer numbers of its growing population: in 40 years from now, Asia will have nearly 5 billion people. Projections on how many of these people will be officially classified as ‘elderly’ are just as impressive: in 2050, more than 860 million Asians will be 65 years and older.
What is especially striking about this phenomenon is the relative speed of the process of aging in Asia, and the fact that the ‘greying’ of Asia is occurring at all levels of the economic spectrum, i.e. even in low-income countries.Asia's 3-Speed Aging World
In the context of demographics, it is tempting to borrow the differential-speed economic growth framework that is used in the economic model that underlies the book.
The three-speed demographic taxonomy in Asia occurs around distinct groups: one, the aging countries in North East Asia (notably, PRC and the Republic of Korea; from now on referred to as Speed 1 or Old Asia), two, the countries in South East and South Asia that are approaching the demographic transition (called Speed 2 or Young Asia. This group covers a wide spectrum of countries such as Thailand and Indonesia that are relatively older, and other countries that are roughly 10 years further behind, such as India and Viet Nam), and three, the youngest countries in Asia that are still growing, much further away in their demographic transitions, such as Pakistan and Afghanistan, for instance—referred to as Speed 3 or Very Young Asia.
By tracing the population figures for some of the major (already large) Asian countries, it becomes evident that PRC's population begins to decline around 2029, the Republic of Korea in 2026, Thailand will begin shrinking in 2033, Viet Nam in 2045. Japan's demographic descent has already begun; its population reached its peak in 2009; India's demographic inflection point occurs only after 2050; the same applies to Indonesia, Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Tracing the percentage of the total population that is of a working age (defined as 20–64 [Page 302]years of age) also reveals different and differently timed inflection points: for Speed 1 countries, the old countries of Asia, the working age population has already peaked and is now declining (as in Japan) or is about to do so (as in Republic of Korea). Working age populations in the Speed 2 countries (“Young Asia”) trail the Speed 1 countries by about 20–25 years (e.g., Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh). These inflection points are an important indicator of demographic windows of opportunity and potential demographic dividends that countries could exploit to their advantage.
Table A1.3 Asia's differential-speed demographic inflection years Total population Working age population Speed 1: Old Asia Japan 2009 1997 Republic of Korea 2026 2018 PRC 2029 2018 Speed 2: Young Asia Thailand 2033 2022 Viet Nam 2045 2035 Indonesia Post 2050 2038 Bangladesh Post 2050 2044 India Post 2050 Post 2050 Speed 3: Very Young Asia Pakistan Post 2050 Post 2050 Afghanistan Post 2050 Post 2050Source: Centennial Group International calculations based on data from United Nations Statistics Division, 2011.
An important, valid concern is that a rapidly ageing population is antithetical to achieving high-income status. The fear that a country might become too old before it becomes rich enough has two elements: with high old age-dependency ratios, investments to achieve higher factor productivity are difficult to achieve; and meeting the needs of an elderly population will entail costly economic and social institutions that are needed to achieve income security, adequate health care, and other needs (Lee, Mason, and Cotlear, 2010).[Page 303]
Table A1.4 Projected GDP per capita (PPP) vs. share of aging population, 2050 GDP pc (PPP) in 2050 Share of population (%) 65+ in 2050 Afghanistan 2,456 4.1 Nepal 3,548 11.5 Myanmar 5,275 17.6 Pakistan 8,530 10.4 Tajikistan 16,913 9.0 Bangladesh 19,300 15.9 Iran, Islamic Rep. 23,696 23.5 Philippines 27,208 10.7 Mongolia 30,144 14.0 Cambodia 30,280 12.8 Sri Lanka 33,385 21.6 Viet Nam 34,139 23.1 Lao PDR 37,875 12.6 India 40,715 13.4 Bhutan 41,928 16.9 Armenia 42,160 21.8 Indonesia 42,176 19.2 Azerbaijan 52,174 17.1 PRC 52,681 25.6 Kazakhstan 60,847 13.6Source: Centennial Group International Growth Model, 2011.[Page 304]
Appendix 2: Model for Developing Global Growth Scenarios1[Page 305]
This book estimates GDP as a function of labor force, capital stock, and total factor productivity for 185 countries between 2011–2050 under two different growth scenarios that we call the “Asian Century” and “Middle Income Trap”. This section offers an abbreviated description of the model; a more detailed exposition, in Kohli, Szyf, and Arnold (2012), is available on request.
As seen in equation (1), a Cobb-Douglas function with constant returns to scale is assumed, with a equal to two-thirds:
GDP figures are generated for three different measures: real GDP (constant 2010 prices); GDP PPP (constant 2010 PPP prices); and GDP at expected market exchange rates, which incorporates expected exchange rate movements and serves as this book's best proxy for nominal GDP.
The model first estimates yearly real GDP growth for each country between 2012 and 2050. These estimates are applied to the previous values of real GDP, GDP PPP, and nominal GDP deflated by US inflation (on which GDP at market exchange rates is based) to derive the full series. Finally, to derive GDP at market exchange rates, real exchange rate changes are calculated and multiplied by nominal GDP (deflated by inflation) to obtain GDP at market exchange rates.
Labor force growth stems from population growth and from changes in labor force participation rates. Population growth is based on the 2010 Revision of the UN's World Population Prospects, while labor force participation rates are projected separately, by gender, for seven age cohorts (15–19, 20–24, 25–29, 30–49, 50–59, 60–64, and 65+) to better capture cohort-specific trends. Male rates are projected directly; female rates are derived by projecting the difference between male and female rates for each age group. Labor force participation rates from 1980 through 2011 are taken from the International Labor Organization.
The cross-country, cohort-specific equations to forecast male rates are simple autoregressions of the following form:
[Page 306]where Mage is the percent of males in age group age who are active in the labor force and mage is a constant that varies for each age group.
1 This appendix was written by Harpaul Alberto Kohli.
The cross-country, cohort-specific equations to forecast the differentials between male and female participations rates are:
where Dage equals the difference between the percentage of males in age group age in the labor force and the percentage of females in age group age in the labor force, and dage is a constant that varies by age group. In both male and female models, for certain cohorts, rough upper or lower bounds are incorporated to address outliers. Observations that begin in 2011 beyond these bounds are not governed by the regressions but instead gradually converge over time towards the bounds.
Capital stock growth, based on an initial capital stock and yearly investment rates and depreciation, is defined as:
where K is the capital stock, 0.06 represents the yea +rly depreciation of 6%, and It-1 is the capital investment from the previous year, which is defined as the previous year's GDP (measured in constant 2010 PPP dollars) multiplied by the investment rate as a share of GDP.
The initial capital stock is calculated using the Caselli method (Kharas 2010b), with the following equation:
where K0 is the initial capital stock, g is the average GDP growth over the subsequent ten years, 0.06 is the depreciation rate, and I0 is the initial year's investment. For I0, for each country, the earliest year for which there exists capital investment data (year y) is identified. The average of the investment rate values for year y and the two subsequent years is computed and treated as the initial investment rate. This smoothing out of fluctuations in the initial investment rate is necessary to yield better estimates for certain countries in which there is much volatility in the earliest investment rate values. This rate is then multiplied by the GDP in year y to determine I0. The earliest year possible is chosen for this estimate because the longer the timeframe before the [Page 307]projections commence the more the yearly depreciations will reduce the effects on the model of any initial imprecisions in capital estimates.
The model is calibrated by calculating total factor productivity (TFP) for an initial year (2011) based on labor force, capital stock, and historical GDP, with GDP and capital stock measured in purchasing-power-parity dollars at constant 2010 PPP prices. For subsequent years, TFP is projected.
For the TFP projections, we differentiate four tiers of countries: rich or developed; converging; non-converging; and fragile.
All countries begin with a default TFP growth rate of 1.3 percent per annum derived from past studies (Kharas 2010b). This parameter is close to the 100-year TFP growth rate of the US, and is treated as the global standard. In our model, this is the fixed rate of productivity growth for non-converging, non-fragile countries.
Research shows that some growth differences between developing countries can be successfully modelled by separating them into two groups: converging (Tier 2) and non-converging (Tier 3) countries (Gill et al 2007; Jones 2002; Kharas 2010a; Kharas 2010b; Wolfensohn 2007).
A country is deemed to be converging if its per-capita income has rapidly converged over a 20-year period to that of best practice economies; the lower its productivity relative to the global best practice, the more quickly it converges. This convergence reflects technology transfers from richer innovating countries, technology leapfrogging, the diffusion of management and operational research from more developed countries, and other ways that a country can shortcut productivity-improvement processes by learning from economies that are already at the productivity frontier.
In the model, the lower the country's productivity relative to that of the US, the larger the boost, and the quicker the catch-up.2 The productivity growth of rich (Tier 1) countries is treated the same as that of Tier 2 countries. On the other hand, non-converging (Tier 3) countries have only a 1.3 percent yearly productivity growth and no boost. The general equation for TFP growth is:
where CB is the convergence boost benefiting “converging” countries and FP is the productivity growth penalty suffered by failing or fragile states.
2 TFP is used in the convergence term instead of the per-capita income used by others for three reasons: first, if the equation were to use GDP per capita, over time the TFP of a converging country would not converge to that of the US but instead to other values. Also, since the convergence equation represents convergence of TFP, we use TFP in order to make the equation consistent with its purpose. Third, using the convergence coefficient from past research in tandem with an income-based convergence term yields large discrepancies with the recent historical data for TFP growth for many countries; using TFP yields a better fit.
[Page 308]The convergence boost is defined as follows:
where i is the country, 2.33 percent is the convergence coefficient (derived from historical data), TFP is the total factor productivity, and c takes a value between 0 and 1 and identifies whether a country is treated as a converger (c=1) or as a non-converger or fragile state (c=0), or in an intermediate state of transition between being a converger and non-converger (0 < c < 1).
The failed-state penalty FP is defined as:
where f plays a role analogous to that of c in equation (7) above. For each fragile (Tier 4) nation, f is set equal to 1, corresponding to a penalty in productivity growth of 1.8 percent, so that its yearly productivity is assumed to fall by 0.5 percent a year. The coefficient of negative 1.8 percent and the list of such fragile states is derived by identifying state failures and debilitating wars prior to the global financial crisis that lasted at least 2 consecutive years in 44 nations.
The projections of GDP growth are concluded by applying the labor growth, capital deepening, and productivity changes to each country over the period 2012–2050.
The measure of GDP at expected market exchange rates adjusts the GDP estimate by expected changes in the real exchange rate. First, an equation is derived to establish a theoretical relationship between a country's real exchange rate and its PPP income relative to that of the US. Then, the country's modelled exchange rate converges towards the value that corresponds to its income in this theoretical equation. These relationships are not linear, and the countries for which increases in GDP PPP per capita most appreciate their real exchange rates are the countries whose incomes are between a third and two-thirds that of the United States, and not the poorest or richest countries.
The model also projects the sizes of the low, middle, and high-income populations, again following Kharas (2010b), by measuring the number of people in each country with living standards—in PPP terms—within a certain absolute range. An income distribution for each country is derived from the World Bank's International Comparison Program.
The book makes separate projections for the Asian Century and Middle Income Trap scenarios. The difference between the scenarios is how countries are classified, either as converging, non-converging, or failed, and how countries gradually transition between classifications.
[Page 309]For the first scenario (the Asian Century), the starting point is the countries' statuses in 2010: 38 countries (7 Asian) are rich, 31 (11 Asian) converging, 112 (29 Asian) non-converging, and 14 (2 Asian) failed.3 For 145 countries, the classification is taken from the “Four-Speed World” classification used by Kharas. The remaining 50 countries are classified using a similar analysis of recent historical data.4 The Asian Century scenario assumes the following: all eleven currently converging, middle-income economies in Asia will continue to converge; eleven Asian (and six non-Asian economies) will gradually also become convergers; and all failed states will gradually stop failing beginning in 2021 and fully graduate to the third group in 2025. The convergence of the six non-Asian non-convergers and the fact that all failing states eventually stop failing in this scenario results from the shared prosperity of the Asian Century scenario that benefits the entire world.
The second scenario is the “Middle Income Trap Scenario”. Here, all currently converging Asian countries with a GDP PPP per capita in 2010 below $20,000 are assumed to fall into the Middle Income Trap. They gradually stop converging beginning at varying income-dependent points between 2015–2026, and remain non-convergers for the rest of the time-frame.
In both scenarios, the transition of individual countries between converging and non-converging, or from failed to non-converging, is gradual. That is, countries are made to adopt an intermediate state between failed and not-failed, or between converging and non-converging, by varying the values of f and c in equations (7) and (8).
3 Projections could not be made for 10 of these 195 countries because the required data is not available.
4 However, unlike the Kharas classification, this book does not distinguish between middle income non-convergers and poor non-convergers. We argue that during the next forty years many poor or lower-middle income countries will graduate to middle income status.[Page 310]
Appendix 3: Asia's Technology Landscape[Page 311]andPredicting the Future
As the first decade of the 21st century draws to a close, it is interesting to ponder the future that lies four decades hence. To be fair, we would not have been able to predict today's technological landscape four decades ago. At the time, there was no Internet, no World Wide Web, no laptops, no mobile phones, no network of communications satellites, no iPods or iPads, and no stem cell technology; yet, today all of these items impact—if not dominate—our lives. Thus, it is a very difficult exercise to predict the technological landscape of Asia four decades from now. However, this note attempts a best guess as to what the future state of technology could look like and how such a picture might influence events in Asia. With the current pace of technological change, one can easily conceive of major technological breakthroughs appearing before 2050 (and beyond). As a result, the Asian Century may not only be marked by a shift of economic power to the region, but a shift that extends to technology as well.Rapidly Changing Asia
In terms of technological innovation, Asia has progressed unevenly over the past 4 decades. Following the end of World War II, Japan raced ahead to become a technological superpower, joining the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in 1962. Within another one to two decades, the Republic of Korea and Taipei, China had achieved the status of technologically advanced countries due to an emphasis on and investment in higher education, science, and technology. Singapore eventually joined this club by carving out a niche in specific areas such as biotechnology and making innovative changes in public policy to welcome foreign nationals who had achieved eminence in science and technology elsewhere. In this way, Singapore avoided suffering from the disadvantage of having a small human capital base.
India faced two adversities along its journey of technological innovation following independence in 1947. First, as a poor country lacking financial resources, India had to resort to “frugal engineering,” which meant creating more from less. Second, India lacked access to a variety of technology, ranging from satellites to nuclear power to supercomputers.
The lack of competition in the Indian economy prior to liberalization, which did not begin in [Page 312]earnest until the early 1990s, resulted in technological development that was driven solely by a policy of import substitution. A closed economy also meant a lack of access to foreign direct investment (FDI) and foreign technology. Once it began pursuing a policy of liberalization starting in 1991, India made rapid gains in technological innovation.
The People's Republic of China (PRC) opened its economy two decades earlier than India did and reaped huge benefits as a result. PRC remains ahead of India today in all areas of technology, with the exception of information technology services and computer software development. PRC's prowess in high-technology areas such as advanced space, aerospace, and nuclear technologies is well known, with achievements ranging from high-speed bullet trains and advanced fighter jets, to naval aircraft carriers and advanced nuclear reactors. Furthermore, massive investments in clean technology are already returning a rich dividend, and PRC has acquired the second position behind the United States in nanotechnology even after its late start. Meanwhile, PRC has taken a huge lead over India in supercomputers. The recently announced list of the world's top 500 supercomputers shows PRC topping the global list with 41 indigenously developed supercomputers, compared with four from India.Biotechnology
It is widely agreed that the 21st century will be the century of biology just as the 20th century was dominated by information and communication technology (ICT). Together, these two technologies will have game-changing influence on human development over the next four decades. What will be Asia's position in this century of modern biotechnology? It is plausible that Asia could be a biotechnology leader by 2050 with a dominant position in a variety of frontier fields including stem cell technology, synthetic biology, and pharmaco-genomics.
Stem cell technology has moved from preventive (vaccines) and curative (antibiotics) medicine, to predictive (gene therapy) and regenerative (stem cell therapy) medicine. Several Asian countries have taken an early lead in the development of stem cell technology. Today, the Republic of Korea and Singapore are considered among the leaders in this field of science. India and PRC are beginning to build on the promise of stem cell technology through judicious investments in human capital and infrastructure.
More than 20 research centers in India are carrying out basic stem cell research to develop therapies for cancer, diabetes, heart disease, and brain disorders such as Alzheimer's disease. Although PRC has less than 10 major stem cell research centers, in Taizhou a spinoff of Beijing University known as Beike Bio Technology is already using stem cells to treat more than 250 patients for diseases ranging from cerebral palsy to optic nerve damage. Many of their patients come from the US, where therapies based on stem cell research are difficult to find due to legal restrictions.
An early advantage has been gained by Singapore, Republic of Korea, PRC, and India, which [Page 313]have forged ahead through less restrictive policies concerning stem cell research. Asia has the competitive advantages needed to become a leader in stem cell technology and therapies. This unique positioning in regenerative medicine could have interesting consequences for medical tourism, with a potential explosion in the numbers of Americans coming to PRC seeking stem cell therapies.
Asia could also lead the new age of pharmaco-genomics, or personalized medicine, in which physicians select the drugs that are most likely to help a specific patient, while at the same time ensuring the absence of unwanted side effects. There are two factors that favor Asia in this field: affordability and diversity. First, the costs of sequencing an organism's genetic material have plummeted dramatically; the dream of sequencing an individual's genetic makeup in as little as 15 minutes at a cost of only US$15 is not far off. Affordability can lead to ready access to such sophisticated technologies in learning centers across Asia.
Second, Asia's vast genetic diversity aids research in pharmaco-genomics. Gene-based prevention, diagnosis, and treatment has the potential to revolutionize the treatment of HIV/AIDs, cancer, and other deadly diseases. Genetic sequencing may be particularly useful in combating infectious diseases through a process of reverse vaccinology, which refers to the design of vaccines based on computer analysis of a pathogen's genome. This approach has recently delivered success in the production of a vaccine against Group B meningococcus, which had escaped conventional vaccine production methods for over 40 years. Remarkably, the development of this vaccine took only 18 months, which was far faster—and at a cheaper cost—than previous techniques. The bulk of vaccine production is shifting to countries such as India. Aided by affordable advanced technologies, Asia could be a world leader in the research and production of modern vaccines.
The field of synthetic biology is developing new ways to build living organisms. Simple bacteria can be made routinely by inserting synthetic genomes into empty cells. These organisms do not merely duplicate their natural predecessors but also incorporate whatever new traits their designers wish to include in them. From triggering an immune system response, to conveying new generic material into human cells, to repairing hereditary diseases, to carrying out industrially useful chemicals, the promise of synthetic biology is awesome. Although the US has a clear lead in this field, it would not be surprising if India or PRC took a leading position starting in 2010–2020.
The replacement of traditional chemistry by processes that are modeled on biology will lead the way to bio-mimetic synthesis. Closely related to this is bio-manufacturing—the use of cells to produce medically and industrially useful compounds. Cells will be genetically engineered to deliver compounds that nature overlooked. Scientists have already produced universally acceptable blood from stem cells. Medical researchers have successfully altered complex organs in the human body such as the skin, liver, heart, and pancreas. By 2050, it is entirely possible that [Page 314]organs will be grown in a laboratory from the recipient's own tissue, after appropriate genetic repair and then inserted into the recipient's body.
Another advance will come from combining knowledge of engineering and electronics with biology to make complex systems. One example is the recent work on creating artificial retinas for the blind that can link to the optic nerve and send messages to the brain. Other experiments involve using cells as the serving elements in detectors for pollution, bacteria, and nerve agents.
Bio-genealogy, which is the study of the fundamental processes of ageing, could lead to considerable progress in preventing, delaying, or reversing the ageing process by 2050. Asia will see a dramatic extension in life expectancy as both economic conditions and sanitary standards improve, more effective treatments become available for infectious diseases, and as the results of a concerted effort to treat biological ageing as a preventable disease materialize.
The following life-extending developments are expected to be available by 2050.
- Almost everyone will have their own DNA sequence that can be compiled into a database comprising health risks, therapies, and best practices based on the characteristics of an individual's genes.
- Mitochondrial DNA damaged by disease or ageing will be replaceable.
- Most genetic disorders will be curable through gene therapy.
- Immune systems weakened by age will be replaced using fresh cells grown from the patient's own bone material.
- To replace diseased or failing organs, doctors will grow new ones from patients' own cells.
- Tissue regeneration will take place without rejection by creating, manipulating, and transplanting pristine cells from another part of a patient's body.
These and other anti-ageing therapies will make life spans of over 100 years commonplace. More importantly, based on animal-based studies underway at the moment, the “quality of life” will not suffer with ageing as it does today. This development could have a profound effect on the impacts of a “demographic dividend in some Asian countries.Information and Communications Technology
In the 1960s, Gordon Moore predicted that computer power would double every year, which he later amended to a doubling every two years. Subsequent computer experts have so suggested that this uncannily accurate law may not survive beyond 2020 because transitions will have reached limits of miniaturization at the atomic level. While it took 42 years from 1959 to 2001 for computer speed to increase by a factor of 1 million, according to Denis Bushnell, Chief Scientist at NASA's Langley Research Center, computer power is only likely to grow by a factor of 100 between 2001 and 2030.
Meanwhile, today's silicon chips will no longer be relevant by 2020. They will have been [Page 315]supplanted by newer, much faster technologies, including optical computers, molecular computers, bio-computers, and perhaps even quantum computers. Before the end of the first decade of the 21st century, IBM launched its petaflop machine, which is capable of performing 1 million billion floating point operations per second. But within a year, PRC announced that it was joining the race with a petaflop supercomputer of its own. By 2050, India may also have consolidated its position as a leader in supercomputing.
An evolutionary change in human society in recent decades has been the proliferation of the Internet, facilitated by growing bandwidth. By 2020, it is predicted that a combination of fiber optics, satellite-based Internet backbone services, and universal high speed “last mile” connections will shift all electronic communications to the Internet. Traditional telephones will have been replaced by voice over internet protocols (VOIP). The use of natural user interface (NUI) technologies, which do not employ a keyboard but instead respond to gestures or touch, will bring further dramatic shifts. Similarly, early successes in conversational computing will occur in narrowly focused applications such as toys and pre-school computer tutors. Within 5 years, many professional and technical workers will likely be carrying a chatty cyber-assistant in their cell phones, capable of responding to a large number of routine verbal instructions and work-related requests. Conversational computers will commonly be used in customer service lines, tracing lost luggage, citizen complaints, public crime reporting, and warranty fulfillment. By 2050, humans can expect to have regular conversations with their cars, appliances, and houses, as conversational computer technology further improves with mature artificial intelligence (AI).
Concurrently, the challenges of labor shortages in countries with ageing populations are being addressed through the use of robotic technology. The governments of Japan and the Republic of Korea are each promoting research and development (R&D) in the field of robotics for the specific purpose of reducing dependence on immigrant labor. Sectors such as agriculture, transportation, and healthcare are expected to rely heavily on robots in the future.
Similarly, AI is now used on a limited but growing basis in specialized applications such as medical diagnostics, interpretation of photo-imagery, and student counseling. By 2050, AI-based systems will have displaced a range of technical and para-professional workers, whose jobs involve routine applications of normative and cognitive skills. The evolution of such systems has the potential to significantly reduce the amount of labor devoted to offshore routine customer support services and back office financial service operations, among other activities.
It is conceivable that by 2050 integrated robotics, AI, and conversational computer capabilities will have measurably reduced labor requirements in agriculture, food processing, manufacturing, factory-built housing, transportation, and services. This job displacement will have two potential effects: (i) in mature industrial economies, it will free up scarce labor for high-value jobs; and (ii) in much of Asia, it will take away jobs from semi-skilled functionaries, thereby eliminating a comparative advantage that many Asian countries have enjoyed to date.[Page 316]The Changing Landscape of Science, Technology, and Innovation
There are clear indications that the center of gravity of scientific research and technological innovation is shifting toward Asia.
First, in recent years there has been a massive expansion of educational and research institutions in parts of the Asia, most notably in PRC and India.
Second, in the past decade, there has been a steep rise in the level of the advanced economies' R&D funding in the rapidly expanding economies in Asia.
Third, an abundant availability of scientific talent at a low cost in Asia has meant that international companies are setting up their R&D centers in countries like India and PRC. In India, over 760 international companies have set up R&D centers, employing around 130,000 scientists, engineers, and technologists. These centers have begun to generate significant amounts of intellectual property for their parent organizations.
Fourth, with educational and employment opportunities expanding in leading Asian countries, the well-known phenomenon of “brain drain” is beginning to reverse itself. A significant number of employees of multinational R&D centers are returning Asians who have been trained in some of the best centers of excellence in scientific research in the world. Improved economic conditions in their native countries have led to the availability of more sophisticated equipment for R&D. Advances in ICT have also translated into more productive interactions with overseas peers.
Finally, tighter intellectual property laws in most Asian countries are allowing scientists to create innovative products, such as entirely new drug molecules, rather than simply reverse engineering existing products.
Exciting economic and social developments, as well as intellectually stimulating challenges, have reversed the process of brain drain from Asia to one of “brain gain.” Several governments have even adopted proactive strategies to facilitate the return of talented scientists. For example, Taipei, China was able to secure the return of Nobel Laureate Professor Y.T. Lee by making an extraordinary offer of employment and appointing him the Minister of Science and Technology. PRC has designed schemes to draw top minds back from overseas by creating special high technology facilities to maximize their talents and offering differentiated privileges and remuneration packages. Singapore has drawn some of the world's leading researchers by offering world class facilities and lucrative compensation packages.
These and other proactive incentive schemes are helping to set the stage for Asia to become a leader in science, technology, and innovation by 2050.Potential Game-Changing Technological Breakthroughs
Technological revolutions that have yet to be foreseen might also bring major changes to the lives of entire generations born in the Asian Century.
One of the fundamental mega-challenges the world faces is ensuring a sustainable supply [Page 317]of energy, while at the same time mitigating climate change risks. Some progress is being made through incremental technological innovations, including increasing the cost effectiveness of solar thermal- and solar photovoltaic-based energy systems.
The transport sector, a huge energy consumer and major producer of carbon emissions, has been the focus of research resulting in some progress on energy conservation. For example, by 2035, 50 percent of all vehicles are expected to run on either electricity or hydrogen. By 2050, it has been predicted, 30 percent of all transport will run on alternative fuels, compared with nearly total dependence on fossil fuels today, and 30 percent of all liquid fuels will be bio-fuels.
These forecasts might even change dramatically in the face of innovations that are transformative rather than merely incremental. A research group at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology has already achieved a breakthrough in splitting water molecules at room temperature. Tata Motors from India is partnering with this group to examine the feasibility of on-board hydrogen generation by splitting water molecules, possibly to enable the world's cheapest car, the Tata Nano, to run on water!
Meanwhile, the Nobel Prize winning research of J. George Bednorz and K. Alexander Müller from IBM labs in Zurich has raised expectations about superconductors that can function at ambient temperatures. If such a breakthrough were to occur, superconductors operating at room temperature could power levitating trains that would outperform any of today's high-speed trains.
With regard to climate change, the environmental risks that emanate from the burning of fossil fuels can only be tackled through technological innovation. Physical carbon sequestration could be aided significantly by bio-sequestration, the process of using carbon dioxide-dependent microalgae to convert carbon dioxide, water, and nutrients into lipids through photosynthesis. The lipids, in turn, are converted into bio-fuels. The successful application of this technology could lead to coal-based power plants in which bio-sequestration produces a closed-loop system without any carbon dioxide emissions.
Technological revolutions might occur in other areas as well. For example, even with only incremental innovations between now and 2050, agriculture will become increasingly automated. Robots will appear on farms and in fisheries to replace human laborers. Sensor-based and electronic tagging systems can already monitor growth rates, nutrient levels, and circulation processes. The results produce models, which study plant structures from root to tip to determine their growth patterns. This technology will lead to continued productivity improvements in agricultural output that will help meet the demands of an ever-growing global population that is estimated to reach 9 billion people by 2050. Furthermore, as land and water become scarcer in the decades ahead, modern biotechnology will continue to make advances in crops that can be grown under saline conditions while using a fraction of the water and nutrients needed today.
The most significant scientific discoveries and breakthroughs of the 20th century came exclusively from the developed economies of the EU, Japan, and North America. These [Page 318]included (i) integrated circuits, which led to the ICT revolution that has changed the world; and (ii) the discovery of the structure of DNA, which has led to recombinant DNA technology, a true game-changer for humanity. Given the evolving landscape of science, technology, and innovation today, the potential game-changing breakthroughs of the future may well come from Asia!Asia as an Inclusive Innovation Leader by 2050
Despite the rise of Asia as an economic power, income inequalities and a lack of opportunity for a vast number of Asians remain important challenges. Asia must aim for inclusive growth and inclusive innovation. Enterprises have always sought to get more (performance) from less (resources) for more (profit). A new paradigm should seek to get more (performance) from less (resources) to meet the needs of more and more (people) at the bottom of the development pyramid. This new paradigm constitutes the essence of inclusive innovation.
Examples of inclusive innovation comprise products and services such as the world's cheapest car, the Tata Nano, which is priced at only US$2,500; the world's cheapest mobile phone sets priced at US$20; mobile phone call rates just over US$0.01 per minute compared with US$0.08 in the US; cataract surgery that costs US$30 compared with US$3,000 in the US; and laptop computers costing just US$35. These are not dreams, but accomplishments that have resulted from ingenious innovations in technology, business processes, and work flow. Such achievements bode well for Asian-led inclusive innovation.
Inclusive innovation is not only good for Asia, it is also good for the whole world through reverse innovation (Immelt et al 2009). For example, the General Electric (GE) medical team in India has developed a portable electro cardiogram machine at a fraction of the cost of a similarly performing machine in developed economies. Similarly, the GE medical team in PRC has developed a portable ultrasound machine at a fraction of the cost of a similarly performing machine in developed economies. GE has found that a market is emerging for these machines in the developed world, reflecting a reversal of the traditional paradigm in which researchers in advanced economies would develop an expensive medical machine and make it affordable to the developing world only after dropping certain high-cost features. There is widespread recognition that the old paradigm is now reversing itself as Asian countries such as PRC, India, and others are undoubtedly going to be sources of global innovation in the future.
Whether it is reverse innovation or inclusive innovation that will shape the future, or a combination of both, it is clear that Asian businesses are well-positioned to lead. This evolving reality should form the cornerstone of the vision of Asia's technology and research landscape in 2050.
Appendix 4: Driving Productivity and Growth[Page 319][Page 320]Table A4.1 Asia: GDP growth and TFP growth, 1970–2010Table A4.2 Asia: Composition of growth, 1970–2010
Appendix 5: A New Approach to Urbanization[Page 321][Page 322]Table A5.1 Fifty fastest growing cities in Asia[Page 323]Table A5.1 Fifty fastest growing cities in Asia[Page 324]Table A5.2 World mega cities with population over 10 million for 2010, 2030, and 2050
Table A5.3 Rates of urbanization by country: 2010 and 2050 Economy 2010 2050 PRC 46.96 73.23 Hong Kong, China 100.00 100.00 Macao, China 100.00 100.00 Dem. People's Republic of Korea 60.22 74.53 Japan 66.83 80.08 Mongolia 62.03 79.53 Republic of Korea 82.96 90.83 Afghanistan 22.60 47.00 Bangladesh 28.07 56.41 Bhutan 34.71 64.17 India 30.01 54.23 Iran 70.75 85.52 Kazakhstan 58.51 75.87 The Kyrgyz Republic 34.55 53.58 Maldives 40.10 73.12 Nepal 18.62 47.56 Pakistan 35.90 59.37 Sri Lanka 14.31 31.34 Tajikistan 26.32 46.40 Turkmenistan 49.50 71.60 Uzbekistan 36.25 56.01 Brunei Darussalam 75.65 87.21 Cambodia 20.11 43.83 Indonesia 44.28 65.95 Lao People's Democratic Republic 33.18 68.03 Malaysia 72.17 87.85 Myanmar 33.65 62.87 Philippines 48.90 69.36 Singapore 100.00 100.00 Thailand 33.96 59.96 Timor-Leste 28.12 54.92 Viet Nam 30.38 58.99Source: UN Population Divison.
References[Page 325]2001‘The Colonial Origins of Comparative Development’, American Economic Review, vol. 91, no. 5. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.91.5.1369, &2010The Environment and Directed Technical Change, FEEM Working Paper no. 482, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Milan., , &2005‘Do Norms and Identity Matter? Community and Power in Southeast Asia's Regional Order’, The Pacific Review, 19, no. 1, pp. 95–118. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/095127405000471992010‘Democracy or Death? Will Democratisation Bring Greater Regional Instability to East Asia?’, Pacific Review, vol. 23, no. 3, pp. 335–358. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/09512748.2010.4810522011Global Entrepreneurship and Development Index, 2011Edward Elgar Publishing, Cheltanham, UK.&1988‘Innovation in Large and Small Firms: An Empirical Analysis’, American Economic Review78(4), pp. 678–690.&2008‘Reserve Prices and Mineral Resource Theory’, Energy Journal, Special Issue.&2011‘Prospects and Policy Challenges in the Twelfth Plan’, Economic & Political Weekly, vol. 4–6, no. 21, pp. 88–105.2008‘Interstate Conflicts and regionalism in South Asia: Prospects and Challenges’, Perceptions, Spring-Summer, pp. 1–19.& [Page 326]Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation & Ahmedabad Urban Development Authority2006City Development Plan: Ahmedabad, 2006–2012, Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, New Delhi.2009‘Regional Cooperation on Trade and Transport Facilitation’, Impact of Trade Facilitation on Export Competitiveness: A Regional Perspective, ESCAP, Studies in Trade and Investment 66.1994‘Distributive Politics and Economic Growth’, Quarterly Journal of Economics, vol. 109, no. 2, pp. 165–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2118470&2007Inclusive Growth toward a Prosperous Asia: Policy Implications, ERD Working Paper no. 97, Asian Development Bank, Manila.&2009‘GLO-BIO3: A Framework to Investigate Options for Reducing Global Terrestrial Biodiversity Loss’, Ecosystems, vol. 12, no. 3, pp. 374–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10021-009-9229-5, , , , &2010Municipal Finance of Urban Infrastructure: Knowns and Unknowns, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.2010’The Case for Early Stage Funds’, India Chief Mentor, WSF Blogs.2009‘Impacts of FTAs in East Asia: CGE Simulatin Analysis’, RIETI Discussion Paper Series 09-E-037, Tokyo.2005The Dynamics of Global Urban Expansion, The World Bank, Washington, DC., &Aon Benfield UCL Hazard Research Centre, China Dialogue & Humanitarian Futures Programme2010The Waters of the Third Pole: Sources of Threat, Sources of Survival, University College London and King's College London, London, <http://www.abuhrc.org/Publications/Third%20Pole.pdf>.2006‘Climate Change and Water Resources: A Global Perspective’, in HSchellnhuber, WCramer, NNakicenovic, TWigley & GYohe (eds), Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 167–75.[Page 327]2010Trends in the Global Distribution of R&D Since the 1970s: Data, their Interpretation and Limitations, STEPS Working paper 39 for STEPS Centre, Brighton, UK.&1996The Rise of East Asia in World Historical Perspective, Background paper for Planning Workshop, Fernand Braudel Center, SUNY Binghampton., &Asian Development Bank2003‘Competitiveness in Developing Asia: Taking Advantage of Globalization, Technology and Competition’, in Asian Development Outlook, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2008a, Managing Asian Cities, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2008b, Education and Skills: Strategies for Accelerated Development in Asia and the Pacific, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2009a, The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia: A Regional Review, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2009b, Understanding and Responding to Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2009c, Changing Course: A New Paradigm for Sustainable Urban Transport, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2010a, Focused Action: Priorities for Addressing Climate Change in Asia and the Pacific, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank2010b, Human Capital Accumulation in Emerging Asia, 1970–2030, Asian Development Bank, Manila.Asian Development Bank & Asian Development Bank Institute2008Emerging Asia Regionalism, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.Asian Development Bank & Asian Development Bank Institute2009Infrastructure for a Seamless Asia, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.Asian Development Bank & Asian Development Bank Institute2010Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.Asian Disaster Preparedness Center2010a, ADPC Brochure, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok, <http://www.adpc.net/v2007/About%20Us/Brochures/ADPC_Brochure2010.pdf>.[Page 328]Asian Disaster Preparedness Center2010b, Implementing National Programs on Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction in High Risk Communities—Lessons Learned, Challenges, and Way Ahead, RCC Working Paper Version 2, Asian Disaster Preparedness Center, Bangkok.Asian Disaster Preparedness Center2010b, Joint Ministerial Statement, Ninth Ministerial Conference on Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, Cebu, Philippines, 2 November 2010.Asian Disaster Preparedness Center2010c, Transport and Trade Facilitation Progress Report and Work Plan (later 2010–2011), Senior Officials' Meeting, Cebu, Philippines, 31 October 2010.Asia Policy Forum2009Recommendations of Policy Responses to the Global Financial and Economic Crisis for East Asian Leaders, <http://www.adbi.org/files/2009.03.18.keydocs.policy.recommend.global.financial.crisis.east.asian.leaders.pdf>.2008Climate Change, Agricultural Productivity, and Poverty, World Bank, Washington, DC.&2009Crisis Complexity and Conflict: Contributions to Conflict Management, Peace Economics and Development, Volume 9, Emerald, Bedfordshire, United Kingdom.2011Reshaping Global Economic Governance and the Role of Asia in the Group of Twenty (G20), Prepared under Asian Development Bank's Technical Assistance 7501 Asia's Strategic Participation in the Group of Twenty for Global Economic Governance Reform, Asian Development Bank, Manila.1987Adjusting to Success: Balance of Payments Policy in the East Asian NICs, Institute for International Economics, Washington DC.&2005‘Bank Financing in India’, in India's and China's Recent Experience with Reform and Growth, IMF and Palgrave McMillanWashington DC., &2005Manufacturing Employment and Compensation in China, US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, DC.1997Governance and Regulation of Power Pools and System Operators, An International Comparison, Technical Paper no. 382, World Bank, Washington, DC. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/0-8213-4041-7[Page 329]1999Inequality, Growth, and Investment, NBER Working Paper No. 7038 National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, Massachusetts.Barro, R and Lee, J W (eds.) 2011Costs and Benefits of Economic Integration in Asia, Oxford University Press, Oxford. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780199753987.001.00012010Early Steps towards Regionalism in South Asia: SAARC and Other Arrangements, Background paper for Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2010‘Global R&D Funding Forecast’, R&D Magazine, <http://www.battelle.org/aboutus/rd/2011.pdf>.BBC News2010Finishing School for Indian IT Graduates, 7 March 2010 <http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/8547327.stm>.2010South China Sea: How China Could Clarify Its Claims, RSIS Commentaries no. 116/2010, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore.2008What Makes Growth More Sustained?, IMF Working Paper no. 08/59, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC., &2003The Spatial Structures of Cities: International Examples of the Interaction of Government, Topography, and Markets, presentation, <http://alain-bertaud.com/AB_China_course_part3_PPT_%20.ppt>.2010Land Markets, Government Interventions, and Housing Affordability, Wolfensohn Center for Development Working Paper no. 17, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.2010Estimating Demand for Infrastructure in Energy, Transport, Telecommunications, Water and Sanitation in Asia and the Pacific: 2010–2020, ADBI Working Paper 248. Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.2009‘Enhancing Export Competitiveness through Trade Facilitation in Asia’, in Impact of Trade Facilitation on Export Competitiveness: A Regional Perspective, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Studies in Trade and Investment no. 66, pp. 1–17.[Page 330]2009‘Feasible Climate Targets: The Roles of Economic Growth, Coalition Development, and Expectations’, Energy Economics, vol. 31, Supplement 2, pp. S283-93., &Bloomberg BusinessWeek2010India to Raise $535 Million from Carbon Tax on Coal, <http://www.businessweek.com/news/2010-07-01/india-to-raise-535-million-from-carbon-tax-on-coal.html>.2004Accelerating Agriculture and Rural Development for Inclusive Growth: Policy Implications for Developing Asia, ERD Policy Brief Series no. 29, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2010The New Resilience of Emerging Market Countries: Weathering the Recent Crisis in the Global Economy, Paper presented at the ADB Regional Forum on the Impact of the Global Economic and Financial Crisis: Impact of the Global Crisis on Asia, Lessons Learned, Policy Insights, and Outlook, Manila, 4 November 2010., , , &2009‘Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in Fast-Growing Countries: The Benefits of Early Action’, Energy Economics, vol. 31, Supplement 2, pp. S144–51., &Boston Consulting Group2009The 2009 BCG 100 New Global Challengers, BCG, Boston, MA.2006Equity, Efficiency, and Inequality Traps: A Research Agenda, John F. Kennedy School for Government Faculty Research Working Paper no. RWP06–025, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA., &2009Mitigating Climate Change Through Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions: The Science and Economics for Future Paths for Global Annual Emissions, Policy brief, Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Enviornment and Centre for Climate Change Economics and Policy, London, UK.&British Petroleum2010BP Statistical Review of World Energy, London, United Kingdom.2006‘Uncertainty Estimates in Regional and Global Observed Temperature Changes: A New Data Set from 1850’, Journal of Geophysical Research, vol. 111, no. D12, p. D12106. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2005JD006548, , , & [Page 331]2010Changing Trade Costs between the People's Republic of China and India, ADB Economics Working Paper no. 203, Asian Development Bank, Manila.&Brooks, D & Stone, S (eds) 2010Trade Facilitation and Regional Cooperation in Asia, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2006‘Modeling the Recent Evolution of Global Drought and Projections for the Twenty-First Century with the Hadley Centre Climate Model’, Journal of Hydrom-etereology, vol. 7, no. 5, pp. 1113–25., &2008Infrastructure and Economic Development in Sub-Saharan Africa, Policy research working paper 4712 The World Bank, Washington, DC., & World Bank2003Regionalism in the New Asia-Pacific Order: The Political Economy of the Asia-Pacific Region, Volume II, Edward Elgar, Cheltenham, United Kingdom.Carbonpositive2009Brazil Cuts Deforestation, Sets Emission Target, <http://www.carbonpositive.net/viewarticle.aspx?articleID=1732>.2000Urban Violence in Sao Paulo, Comparative Urban Studies Occasional Paper no. 33, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Washington, DC.2010US Union Challenges China over Clean Tech at WTO, <http://www.pointcarbon.com/news/1.1473202>.2000‘The Information City, the New Economy, and the Network Society’, in ATeokesessa Kasvio, VLaitalainem, HSalonen & PMero (eds) People, Cities, and the New Information Economy, proceedings from conference held at Helsinki, Finland, 14–15 December 2000.Centennial Group2006Regional Cooperation and Integration: Lessons from Experience of Europe and the Americas, Washington, DC.Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation2010a, Collective View of the Multilateral Institutions, Ninth Ministerial Conference on Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation, Cebu, Philippines, 2 November 2010.[Page 332]2008South Asian Integration Prospects and Lessons from East Asia, ICRIER Working Paper no. 202, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi.&2011Poverty in Numbers: The Changing State of Global Poverty from 2005 to 2015, Global Views Policy Brief no. 97, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.&2010Approaches to Combat Hunger in Asia and the Pacific, ADB Sustainable Development Working Paper no. 11, Asian Development Bank, Manila., &Chinese Academy of Social Sciences2010Global Urban Competitiveness Report, Edward Elgar Publishing, United Kingdom.2007A Synthetic Analysis of Sources of Democratic Legitimacy, Working Paper Series no. 41.and1999‘Disentangling the concept of density’, Journal of Planning Literature, vol. 13, no. 4, pp. 389–411. http://dx.doi.org/10.1177/088541299220924782009‘International Climate Policy Architectures: Overview of the EMF 22 International Scenarios’, Energy Economics, vol. 31, Supplement 2, pp. S64–81., , , , &Clean Technology Fund2009Investment Plan for CSP Scale up In the MENA Region, World Bank, Washington, DC.Club of Rome1972The Limits to Growth, Macmillan, New York, NY.2008Disaster Standards Needed in Asia, Brookings Northeast Asia Commentary no. 20, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC, <http://www.brookings.edu/opinions/2008/06_disaster_standards_cohen.aspx>.1996‘Japanese Call for Overhaul of Education System—Rote learning, Focus on Exam Take a Big Toll’, The Seattle Times, <http://community.seattletimes.nwsource.com/archive/?date=19961117&slug=2360255>.[Page 333]Commission on Growth and Development2008The Growth Report, Strategies for Sustained Growth and Inclusive Development, Washington, DC.Corporación Andina de Fomento2008‘Special Report: Roads to the Future–Infrastructure Management in Latin America, Annual Report 2008, CAF, Caracas.2010. When Creativity Rules the World, <http://www.makingmindsmatter.com>.2011, Regional Integration and Cooperation in Asia: An Indian Perspective, Centennial Development Advisory Services, India., &2010‘Global Financial Regulation after the Credit Crisis’, Global Policy, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 185–90. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2010.00025.x2009‘Enhancing Asia's Trade: Transport Costs Matter’, in Impact of Trade Facilitation on Export Competitiveness: A Regional Perspective, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, Studies in Trade and Investment no. 66, pp. 19–70.2010Governance, Institutions, and Regional Infrastructure in Asia, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.2010, Trends in National and Regional Investors Financing Cross-Border Infrastructure Projects in Asia, ADBI Working Paper no. 245, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo., &2009Linking South and East Asian Economies: Markets and Institutions, Background paper for Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2011‘Invention and Transfer of Climate Change Mitigation Technologies: A Global Analysis’, Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, forthcoming., , , &2009Organizing the Wider East Asia Region, Background paper for Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.[Page 334]2000The Mystery of Capital: Why Capitalism Triumphs in the West and Fails Everywhere Else, Basic Books, New York City.2011‘Rethinking Japan's White-Collar Hiring’, Financial Times, 25 Januray 2011 <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/17da40e2-28a4-11e0-aa18-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1FHvahuAQ>.2010Farewell to Cheap Capital? The Implications of Long-Term Shifts in Global Investment and Saving, McKinsey Global Institute, <http://www.mckinsey.com/mgi/publications/farewell_cheap_capital/pdfs/MGI_Farewell_to_cheap_capital_full_report.pdf>., , , , , , , , , , &2009‘Are Cities Really to Blame?’, Urban World, vol. 1, no. 2, pp. 12–3.&2010Measuring Subjective Well-being for Public Policy: Recommendations on Measures, Centre for Economic Performance, London School of Economics, London., &2004Improving City Competitiveness through the Investment Climate: Ranking 23 Chinese Cities, The World Bank, Washington, DC., , &2010Intraregional Trade Costs in Asia: A Primer, Staff Working Paper no. 01/10, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok.&2010Assessing the Evidence of the Impact of Governance on Development Outcomes and Poverty Reduction, Issues Paper, UK Department for International Development through the Emerging Issues Research Service of the Governance and Social Development Resource Centre, University of Birmingham, UK.&Earth Policy Institute2010Annual Solar Photovoltaics Production by Country, 1995–2009, <http://www.earth-policy.org/index.php?/data_center/C23/>.2001The Elusive Quest for Growth: Economists’ Adventures and Misadventures in the Tropics, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.[Page 335]Economics of Climate Change Adaptation Working Group, 2009Shaping Climate-Resilient Development: A Framework for Decision-Making, Economics of Climate Adaptation, <http://www.mckinsey.com/App_Media/Images/Page_Images/Offices/SocialSector/PDF/ECA_Shaping_Climate%20Resilent_Development.pdf>.2008Growth Strategies and Dynamics: Insights from Country Experiences, Working Paper No. 6 for the Commission on Growth and Development.&Emerging Markets Forum 2010. Is Early Action on Climate Change in Self Interest of Emerging Market Economies?, Centennial Group International, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2007a, Cost and Performance Baseline for Fossil Energy Plants, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2007b, Natural Gas Market Review: Security in a Globalizing Market to 2015, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2008Global Energy Trends to 2030, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2009World Energy Outlook, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2010a, Energy Technology Perspectives, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2010b, World Energy Outlook, Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2010c, Country Brief Analysis for various Asian Countries. Department of Energy, Washington, DC.Energy Information Agency (EIA)2011Country Information, Department of Energy, Washington, DC, <http://www.eia.doe.gov>.ESMAP2008Potential and Prospects for Regional Energy Trade in the South Asia Region, Energy Sector Management Assistance Program and the South Asia Regional Cooperation Program, World Bank, Washington, DC.European Commission2009Mediterranean Solar Plan Strategy Paper, European Commission, Brussels.[Page 336]European Renewable Energy Council2006Re-thinking 2050: A 100% Renewable Energy Vision for the European Union, European Renewable Energy Council, Brussels.2005Innovation in Asia with Patent Data, Asian Case Research Center, Hong Kong, China.2011‘Infrastructure and Sustainable Development’, in SFardoust, YKim & CSepulveda (eds), Postcrisis Growth and Development: A Development Agenda for the G20, World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 329–82., , &1979Growth with Equity, Oxford University Press, New York, NY., &2010Inclusive Growth, Full Employment, and Structural Change: Implications and Policies for Developing Asia, Anthem Press and Asian Development Bank, London and Manila.2004Asian Axis Would Benefit All, <http://english.peopledaily.com.cn/200405/19/eng20040519_143750.html>.2007The Evolution of Financial Services, Oliver Wyman, New York City.Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission2010Shadow Banking and the Financial Crisis.2002‘The Economic Geography of Talent’, Annals of the American Association of Geographers, vol. 92, no. 4, pp. 743–55. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/1467-8306.003142007The Rise of the Mega Region, The Martin Prosperity Institute, University of Toronto School of Management, Toronto, <http://www.rotman.utoronto.ca/userfiles/prosperity/File/Rise.of.%20the.Mega-Regions.w.cover.pdf>., &Food and Agriculture Organization2008Food Insecurity in the World, United Nations, Rome.2009‘Regional Integration in Asia: The Role of Infrastructure’, in JFrancois, PRana & GWignaraja (eds), Pan Asian Integration: Linking East and South Asia, Palgrave, London, pp. 439–86., & [Page 337]2004Economics of Industrial Innovation, 3rd Edition, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.&2010Shanghai's Metro, Now World's Longest, Continues to Grow Quickly as China Invests in Rapid Transit, The Transport Politic, 15 April 2010.1955‘Memo to the Government of India’, in Western Economists and Eastern Societies: Agents of Social Change in South Asia, 1950–1970. Oxford University Press, Delhi.2010Cities at Risk: Asia's Coastal Cities in an Age of Climate Change, Asia-Pacific Issues no. 96, East-West Center, Honolulu.2001Intellectual Property: When is it the Best Incentive System?, Working paper no. E01–303, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley.&2005Science and Technology Takeoff in Theoretical and Empirical Perspective, Manuscript, Brandeis University, Waltham, MA.&2009China's New Place in a World Crisis: Economic, Geopolitical, and Environmental Dimensions, ANU E-Press, Canberra., &2005Small and Medium Enterprises Financing in China, Universytat Pompeu Fabra, Barcelona.2009Estimating Income Poverty and Inequality from the Gallup World Poll: The Case of Latin America and the Caribbean, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, Palma de Mallorca, Spain.&2007Infrastructure Challenges in South Asia: The Role of Private-Public Partnerships, ADBI Discussion Paper no. 80, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.2007An East Asian Renaissance: Ideas for Economic Growth, World Bank, Washington, DC. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-6747-6, &1995‘Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities’, Journal of Monetary Economics, vol. 36, no. 1, pp. 117–143. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0304-3932%2895%2901206-2, & [Page 338]2008The Greenness of Cities: Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Urban Development, NBER Working Paper no. 14238, National Bureau of Economic Research, Boston. http://dx.doi.org/10.3386/w14238&2011Equity and Inclusion in Sanitation and Hygiene in South Asia: A Regional Synthesis Paper, Water Supply and Sanitation Collaborative Council, Geneva., , &Government of Cambodia2011National Social Protection Strategy for the Poor and Vulnerable, Government of Cambodia, Phnom Penh.Government of PRC2007China Statistical Yearbook 2006, Government of PRC, Bejing.Government of the People's Republic of China2010Full Text of President Hu Jintao's Speech at the Fifth APEC Human Resources Development Ministerial Meeting, <http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=60623>.Government of Singapore2001Economic Development Board, 2001 Annual Report, Government of Singapore, Singapore.Government of the United Kingdom2003Sustainable Development in Government: Second Annual Report 2003, London.2010An Asian Perspective on Financial Crises, <http://www.eastasiaforum.org/2010/04/24/an-asian-perspective-on-financial-crises>.2010EMF in IMF, Brussels.1991Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy, MIT Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.&2010Territorial Disputes and Seabed Petroleum Exploitation: Some Options for the East China Sea, CNAPS Visiting Fellow Working Paper, Center for Northeast Asia Policy Studies, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.2009The Organizational Architecture of the Asia-Pacific: Insights from the New Institutionalism, Background paper for Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.[Page 339]2002‘Potential Effect of Population and Climate Changes on Global Distribution of Dengue Fever: An Empirical Model’, Lancet, vol. 360, no. 9336, pp. 830–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2802%2909964-6, , &2010Scaling up Renewable Energy in Developing Countries: Finance and Investment Perspectives, Chatham House, London.2010‘Demographic Dynamics of Asia’, in BStiftung (ed.), Asia: Changing the World, Bertelsmann Stiftung, Gutersloh, pp. 26–7.2010‘Unequal We Stand: An Empirical Analysis of Economic Inequality in the United States, 1967–2006’, Review of Economic Dynamics, vol. 13, pp. 15–51. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.red.2009.10.010, &‘Confronting the Challenge of State Capture in Transition Economies’, Finance & Development, vol. 38, no. 3& ,2010Behind-the-Border Determinants of Bilateral Trade Flows in East Asia, 8010 ARTNeT Working Paper no. 8010 Asia-Pacific Research and Training Network on Trade, Bangkok.&2004‘How Conflident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?, NBER Working Paper, Washington, DC., , &2006‘Regional Cooperation: A Tool for Addressing Regional and Global Challenges’, in International Task Force on Global Public Goods (ed.), Achieving Global Public Goods, Foreign Ministry, Stockholm, pp. 179–244.&High-Powered Expert Committee2011Report on Indian Urban Infrastructure and Services, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations, New Delhi.2011a, ASEAN Economic Integration: Features, Fulfillments, Failures and the Future, ADB Working Paper Series on Regional Economic Integration no. 69, Asian Development Bank, Manila. <http://aric.adb.org/pdf/workingpaper/WP69_Hill_Menon_ASEAN_Economic_Integration.pdf>.and2011b, ‘Reducing Vulnerability in Transition Economies: Crises and Adjustment in Cambodia’, ASEAN Economic Bulletin28(3).and [Page 340]HSBC2010Sizing the climate economy.2004‘Returns to Research and Development in Chinese Industry: Evidence from State-Owned Enterprises in Beijing’, China Economic Review, 15(1), pp. 86–107. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1043-951X%2803%2900028-2&2005‘R&D and Technology Transfer: Firm-level Evidence in Chinese Industry’, Review of Economics and Statistics, 87(4), pp. 780–786. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/003465305775098143, &2008Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics: Entrepreneurship and the State, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO97805117542101997‘Infant Mortality Among Various Nationalities in the Middle Part of Guizhou, China’, Soc Sci Med, 45(7), pp. 1031–40. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0277-9536%2897%2900019-1et al2010‘Is Entrepreneurship Missing in Shanghai?’, in International Differences in Entrepreneurship, National Bureau of Economic Research, University of Chicago Press.&2011Cross Border Labor Mobility—Governance Framework, unpublished draft. Iimi, A 2005 ‘Urbanization and Development in East Asian Region’, JBICI Review, no. 10, pp. 88–109.2009‘How GE is Disrupting Itself’, Harvard Business Review, <http://hbr.org/2009/10/how-ge-is-disrupting-itself/ar/1>., &Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2001Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge, UK.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change2007Climate Change, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva.International Energy Agency2009World Energy Outlook 2009, International Energy Agency, Paris.International Energy Agency2010China Overtakes the United States to Become World's Largest Energy Consumer, <http://www.iea.org/index_info.asp?id=1479>.[Page 341]International Monetary Fund2009Lessons of the Financial Crisis for Future Regulation of Financial Institutions and Markets and for Liquidity Management, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.International Monetary Fund2011IMF Performance in the Run-Up to the Financial and Economic Crisis: IMF Surveillance in 2000–07, Independent Evaluation Office, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.2002‘Property Rights And Finance’, American Economic Review, vol. 92, pp. 1335–1356. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/000282802762024539, &2006Growth with Equity in East Asia?, DESA Working Paper No. 33, United Nations, New York, MY.1999Too Much of a Good Thing: The Economics of Investment in R&D, Working paper no. 99015, Economics Department, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA.&2002Introduction to Economic Growth, W. W. Norton, New York, NY.Kanbur, R & Spence, M (eds) 2010Equity and Growth in a Globalizing World, Commission on Growth and Development, Washington, DC. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8180-92008‘Global Financial Turmoil Tests Asia’, Finance and Development, vol. 45, no. 4, pp. 34–36.&2009‘Tapping the World's Innovation Hot Spots’, Harvard Business Review, <http://hbr.org/hbr-main/resources/pdfs/comm/fmglobal/tapping-worlds-innovation-hotspots.pdf>.2011Illicit Financial Flows from Developing Countries: 2000–2009, Update with a Focus on Asia, United Nations Development Programme, New York, NY.&2003‘Managing Risks in Financial Market Development: The Role of Sequencing’, in RELitan, MPomerleano & VSundararajan (eds), The Future of Domestic Capital Markets in Developing Countries, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC, pp. 233–72., & [Page 342]2006‘Measuring Corruption: Myths and Realities’, Global Corruption Report 2007., &2009Reform of the International Financial Architecture: An Asian Perspective, ADBI Working Paper no. 167, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.2010Free Trade Agreements in East Asia: A Way toward Trade Liberalization, ADB Briefs no. 1, Asian Development Bank, Manila.&2008‘A Least-Cost Optimization Model of CO2 Capture Applied to Major Power Plants Within the EU-ETS Framework’, Energy Journal.&2011Greece Default with Ireland Breaks Euro by 2016 in Global Poll, <http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-01-25/greece-default-with-ireland-breaks-euro-by-2016-in-global-poll.html>.2006The Poverty Impact of Rural Roads: Evidence from Bangladesh, Policy Research Working Paper, Poverty Reduction and Economic Management Division, The World Bank Institute, Washington, DC., &2010a, ‘India's Promise: An Affluent Society in One Generation’, in India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation, pp. 9–28, Sage, New Delhi.2010b, ‘Latin America: Is Average Good Enough?’, in Latin America 2040: Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence, pp. 71–100, Sage, Thousand Oaks, California.2010‘A Survey on the Relationships between Education and Growth with Implications for Developing Asia’, Background paper, ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 236, Asian Development Bank, Manila.&2002‘Incumbent Entry into New Market Niches: The Role of Experience and Managerial Choice in the Creation of Dynamic Capabilities’, Management Science, 48(2), pp. 171–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.22.214.171.124&Kohli, H & Sood, A (eds.) 2010India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation, Sage, New Delhi.[Page 343]Kohli, H, Loser, C & Sood, A (eds.) 2010. Latin America 2040—Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence, Sage, New Delhi.KohliH & SharmaA (eds.) 2010A Resilient Asia Amidst Global Financial Crisis: From Crisis Management to Global Leadership, Sage, New Delhi.Kohli, H & Ahmed, J (eds.) 2011Islamic Finance: Writings of V. Sundararajan, Sage, New Delhi.2011‘Requirements for Infrastructure Investment in Latin America Under Alternate Growth Scenarios: 2011–2040’, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies3(1).&2011‘Potential Costs to Asia of the Middle Income Trap’, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies3(3).&2012‘Possibilities for the World's Economies through 2050 Using a Revised Growth Model for 185 Countries’, Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies4(1)., &1995a, Trade Policies and Developing Nations, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.1995b, ‘The Role of Trade in Growth and Development: Theory and Lessons from the East Asian Experience’, in RGarnaut, EGrilli & JRiedel (eds), Sustaining Export-Oriented Development: Ideas from East Asia, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1–30.2010Inequality, Leverage and Crises. Working paper no. 10/268 for the International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.&2004Cross-Border Transnational Urban Economic Regions, <http://www.globalur-ban.org/GUD%20Transnational%20MES%20Report.pdf>.Lamia, K-C & Roberts, A (eds) 2009Competitive Cities and Climate Change, Regional Development Working Paper no. 2, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris.2003‘Asian Values Revisited’, Asia Europe Journal, vol. 1, pp. 25–42. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s103080200005[Page 344]2007Brazil and Climate Change: A Country Profile, Science and Development Policy Briefs, 14 February 2007 <http://www.scidev.net/en/policy-briefs/brazil-climate-change-a-country-profile.html>.&2010‘Human Capital Accumulation in Emerging Asia, 1970–2030’, ADB Economics Working Paper Series No. 216, Asian Development Bank, Manila.&2010Some Economic Consequences of Global Ageing, World Bank, Washington, DC., , &Legatum Institute2010Legatum Prosperity Index, <http://www.prosperity.com/>.2010‘International Differences in Entrepreneurship’, in National Bureau of Economic Research Book, University of Chicago Press, Chicago.&2010Energy Use in Chinese Buildings: Views of an Outsider Looking In, First U.S. China Energy Efficiency Forum, Beijing.2004‘Finance and Growth: Theory and Evidence’, in PAghion & SDurlauf (eds), Handbook of Economic Growth, Elsevier Science, Amsterdam, vol. 1, pp. 865–934. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S1574-0684%2805%2901012-92010Building a National Wind Turbine Industry: Experiences from China, India and South Korea, Int. J. Technology and Globalisation, vol. 5, no. 3/4, pp. 281–305. http://dx.doi.org/10.1504/IJTG.2011.0397682007‘Economic Integration of Eurasia: Opportunities and Challenges of Global Significance’, in AAslund & MDabrowski (eds), Europe after Enlargement, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 189–228. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511611056.011&2008The Experience with Regional Economic Cooperation Organizations: Lessons for Central Asia, Wolfensohn Center for Development Working Paper no. 4, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.&2010Connecting Central Asia and the Caucasus with the World, Eurasia Emerging Markets Forum, Thun, Switzerland, 23–25 January 2010 background paper.[Page 345]2009Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS): Review of Transport Projects along GMS Corridors, Thirteenth Meeting of the GMS Subregional Transport Forum, Siem Reap, Cambodia, 27–28 October 2009 presentation, <http://www.adb.org/Documents/Events/Mekong/Proceedings/STF13-Appendix8.pdf>.&2006Energy Security Series: India, Brookings Foreign Policy Studies, Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.2008The New Asian Hemisphere: The Irresistible Shift of Global Power to the East, PublicAffairs, New York, NY.2008Status and Development of China's Electric Power, Asia Clean Energy Forum, Manila.MasterCard Worldwide2008Global Centers of Commerce Index, MasterCard Worldwide, Purchase, NY.2007Energy for All: Addressing the Energy, Environment and Poverty Nexus in Asia, Asian Development Bank, Manila.McKinsey & Company2009a, China's Green Revolution: Prioritizing Technologies to Achieve Energy and Environmental Sustainability, McKinsey & Company, Shanghai.McKinsey & Company2009b, Pathways to a Low Carbon Economy for Brazil, McKinsey & Company, Sao Paulo.McKinsey & Company2009c, Roads toward a Low Carbon Future, McKinsey & Company, Boston.McKinsey and Company2009d, Capturing the India Advantage, Working paper, Pharma Summit 2009 Delhi, 30 November 2009 <http://www.indiapharmasummit.com/downloads/reports/Capturing%20the%20India%20Advantage.pdf>.McKinsey Global Institute2010Farewell to Cheap Capital? The Implications of Long-term Shifts in Global Investment and Saving.[Page 346]2007‘Global Climate Projections’, in SSolomon, DQin, HManning, ZChen, MMarquis, KAveryt, MTignor & HMiller (eds), Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis, Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York City, pp. 747–846.&2008‘Does Road Improvement Reduce Poverty? A General Equilibrium Analysis for Lao PDR’, in DBrooks and JMenon (eds.), Infrastructure and Trade in Asia, London: Edward Elgar, pp. 115–42.and2009‘Dealing with the Proliferation of Bilateral Free Trade Agreements’, World Economy, vol. 32, pp. 1381–407. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1467-9701.2009.01187.xMerrill Lynch & Capgemini2008World Wealth Report 2008, Merrill Lynch and Capgemini, <http://www.capgemini.com/insights-and-resources/by-publication/world_wealth_report_2008/>.2005‘Cleaner Production as Climate Investment—Integrated Assessment in Taiyuan City, China’, Journal of Cleaner Production, vol. 13, no. 1, pp. 57–70. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2003.08.005, , , , &2004The Roots and Implications of East Asian Regionalism, Background paper for The Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies Occasional Paper Series, Honolulu, HI.2010Trends and Determinants in Inter-Regional Trade in CAREC, CAREC Institute, Manila.2006Keynote Address, Conference on Land Policies and Urban Development, Cambridge, Massachusetts, 5 June 2006.2000. ‘Economic Effects of Concentrated Corporate Ownership: Inherited Wealth, Corporate Control, and Economic Growth—The Canadian Disease?’, in Concentrated Corporate Ownership, National Bureau of Economic Research, Boston, MA, pp. 319–372., &2006AIDS in South Asia: Understanding and Responding to a Heterogeneous Epidemic, World Bank, Washington, DC., , , , , , & [Page 347]2007‘Rural Roads and Poor Area Development in Vietnam’, Policy Research Working Paper Series, The World Bank, Washington, DC. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-4340&2009Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Yields, World Bank, Washington, DC., , , &2003‘Institutional Savings and Financial Markets: The Role of Contractual Savings Institutions’, in RELitan, MPomerleano & VSundararajan (eds), The Future of Domestic Capital Markets in Developing Countries, The Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.&2007Political Culture and Diffuse Regime Support in Asia, Working Paper Series no. 43.National Science Foundation2010Science and Engineering Indicators 2010, <http://www.nsf.gov/statistics/seind10/>.2010Transforming China: Insights from the Japanese Experience of the 1980s, IMF Working Paper no. 10/284, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.2010‘East Asia and the Pacific Confronts the ‘New Normal“, Economic Premise, no. 24, pp. 1–9.2007Ranking Port Cities with High Exposure and Vulnerability to Climate Extremes: Exposure Estimates, OECD Working Paper no. 1, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris., , , , , , &2011This Time May Truly Be Different—Balance Sheet Adjustment under Populating Ageing, American Economic Association Annual Meeting, Denver, 7 January 2011 speech.2000Warming the World: Economic Models of Global Warming, MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.&2010‘Economic Aspects of Global Warming in a Post-Copenhagen Environment’, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, vol. 107, no. 26, pp. 11721–6.[Page 348]2007‘Japans Picks Up the “Innovation” Mantra’, Science, vol. 316, no. 5882 pp. 186, <http://www.sciencemag.org/content/316/5822/186.full?sid=657eeac2-9e26-4405-922c-9352396fe239>. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.316.5822.1862003Agricultural and Human Health Impacts of Climate Policy in China: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Guangdong, OECD Development Centre Technical Paper no. 206, Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development, Paris. http://dx.doi.org/10.1787/110657276654, , , &OECD2007‘Basic Statistics on Scientific and Technological Activities’, in OECD Reviews of Innovation Policy—China Synthesis Report, OECD, Paris.OECD2010PISA 2009 Results, OECD, Paris.OFDA/CRED International Disaster Database2010EM-DAT, Brussels.2010Central Asia's Oil and Gas Reserves: To Whom Do They Matter, Eurasia Emerging Markets Forum, Thun, Switzerland, 23–25 January 2010 background paper.2010‘Geospatial Distribution and Determinants of Child Mortality in Rural Western Kenya 2002–2005’, Trop Med Int Health, 15(4), pp. 423–33. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-3156.2010.02467.xet alOrganisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)2008Growing Unequal? Income Distribution and Poverty in OECD Countries, OECD, Paris.Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)2009Integrating Climate Change Adaptation into Development Cooperation, OECDParis.Organization of Oil Exporting Countries (OPEC)2009World Energy Outlook, OPEC.1998‘A Behavioral Approach to the Rational Choice Theory of Collective Action: Presidential Address, American Political Science Association, 1997’, American Political Science Review, vol. 92, no. 1, pp. 1–22. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/25859252006Pursuit of Equity Threatens Poverty Alleviation, Financial Times, 3 May.[Page 349]2004‘New Regionalism Options for East Asia’, in KKrumm and HKharas (eds.) East Asia Integrates: A Trade Policy Agenda for Shared Growth, World Bank and Oxford University Press, Washington, DC.and2010India to Raise $535 million from Carbon Tax on Coal, <http://www.business-week.com/news/2010-07-01/india-to-raise-535-million-from-carbon-tax-on-coal.html>.2005‘Introduction: Emerging Webs of Regional Connectedness’, in Remapping East Asia: The Construction of a Region, Cornell University Press, Ithaca, New York, pp. 1–28.2011Structural Change and Prospects and Constraints for Indian Agriculture, Report prepared for Centennial Group International, forthcoming.&1999The Role of Law and Legal Institutions in Asian Economic Development 1960–1995, Prepared for the Asian Development Bank, Oxford University Press, NY.&Planning Commission of India2006Report of the Expert Committee on Integrated Energy Policy, Planning Commission of India, New Delhi.2010Regionalism in East Asia: Why Now and Where To?, unpublished manuscript.1998‘The Microeconomic Foundations of Economic Development’, in Global Competitiveness Report, World Economic Forum, Geneva.1999Innovative Capacity and Prosperity: The Next Competitiveness Challenge, Unpublished manuscript.&2010Shadow Banking, Federal Reserve Bank of New York Staff Report no. 458, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, New York., , &2010‘Innovation's Holy Grail’, Harvard Business Review, <http://hbr.org/2010/07/innovations-holy-grail/ar/1>.&Press Information Bureau, Government of India2010PM Inaugurates Civil Services Day, 2010 <http://pib.nic.in/newsite/erelease.aspx?relid=60623>[Page 350]2009Crises, Private Capital Flows, and Financial Instability in Emerging Asia, UNESCAP Working Paper no. 09/06, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific, Bangkok, <http://www.unescap.org/pdd/publications/workingpaper/wp_09_06.pdf>.2011Reducing Corruption in Public Governance: Rhetoric to Reality, <http://www.sidb.com>.1997‘What Can New Survey Data Tell Us about Recent Changes in Distribution and Poverty?’, The World Bank Economic Review, vol. 11, no. 2, pp. 357–82. http://dx.doi.org/10.1093/wber/11.2.357&2009The Political Economy of Asian Regionalism, Background paper for Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2009‘Natural Gas Pricing in the Countries of the Middle East and North Africa’, The Energy Journal, vol. 30, no. 3http://dx.doi.org/10.5547/ISSN0195-6574-EJ-Vol30-No3-12010Unleashing an Energy Revolution, in India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation, Sage, New Delhi.2010Weathering Climate Change: Insurance Solutions for More Resilient Communities, Swiss Reinsurance Company Ltd., Zurich., , &2009This Time is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ.&Republic of Singapore2003‘Bites of the Week’, MITA News.Roberts, B & Kanaley, T (eds) 2006Urbanization and Sustainability in Asia: Case Studies of Good Practice, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2009), Entrepreneurial Impact: The Role of MIT, Paper prepared for the Kauffman Foundation, Kansas City, MO.& (2009A Climate for Recovery: The Colour of Stimulus Goes Green, HSBC Global Research, London., & [Page 351]2010Sizing the Climate Economy, HSBC Global Research, London., , , &1999Where Did All the Growth Go? External Shocks, Social Conflict, and Growth Collapses, Journal of Economic Growth, vol. 4, no. 4, pp. 395–412. http://dx.doi.org/10.1023/A:10098632087062006Scenarios for CO2 Emissions from the Transport Sector in Asia, Presentation.2006Infrastructure as a Catalyst for Regional Integration, Growth, and Economic Convergence, ERD Working Paper no. 91, Asian Development Bank, Manila.1990‘Endogenous Technological Change—Part 2: The Problem of Development: A Conference of the Institute for the Study of Free Enterprise Systems, The Journal of Political Economy, vol. 98, no. 5, pp. S71–S102. http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/261725Royal Society2005Ocean Acidification Due to Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide, 12/05, Royal Society, London.2004‘Reported Incomes and Marginal Tax Rates, 1960–2000: Evidence and Policy Implications’, in Tax Policy and the Economy, vol. 18, pp. 117–174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Boston.2010Promoting Economic Cooperation in South Asia: Beyond SAFTA, Sage Publications, New Delhi., &2006The New Argonauts: Regional Advantage in a Regional Economy, Harvard University Press, Cambridge, Massachusetts.1993Recent Experiences with Surges in Capital Inflows, Occasional Paper no. 108, International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC., , &2008Managing Large Capital Inflows: Taking Stock of International Experiences, ADBI Discussion Paper no. 97, Asian Development Bank Institute, Tokyo.2004‘Dangerous and Endangered Youth: Social Structures and Determinants of Violence’, Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, vol. 1036 pp. 13–46. http://dx.doi.org/10.1196/annals.1330.002[Page 352]1991‘Standing on the Shoulders of Giants: Cumulative Research and the Patent Law’, The Journal of Economic Perspectives, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 29–41. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/jep.5.1.29Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, 2009SIFMA Fact Book, Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association, New York, NY.2009Regional Institutions in Southeast Asia: The First Movers and their Challenges, Background paper for nstitutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2004India, Japan Eye New Axis, <http://www.atimes.com/atimes/South_Asia/FH24Df03.html>.2003Towards an Economic Community: Exploring the Past, Background paper for the Research and Information System for the Non-Aligned and Other Developing Countries, New Delhi.2010Addressing the Global Challenge of Financial Inclusion, International Finance Corporation.2009From Asian to Global Financial Crisis, Cambridge University Press, London.2010‘The Regulatory Reform of Global Financial Markets: An Asian Regulator's Perspective’, Global Policy, vol. 1, no. 2, p. 10. http://dx.doi.org/10.1111/j.1758-5899.2010.00034.x2011Out with the Tiger, In with the Rabbit, <http://biz.thestar.com.my/news/story.asp?file=/2011/2/5/business/7926843&sec=business>.2009Reforming the Framework of Financial Regulation and Supervision: An International and Asian Perspective, Bank Negara Malaysia-Bank for International Settlements High-Level Seminar, Malaysia, 11 December 2009 speech, <http://www.boj.or.jp/en/announcements/press/koen_2009/ko0912b.htm/>.2005‘Forest and Woodlands Systems’, in RHassan, RScholes & NAsh (eds), Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Current State and Trends, Island Press, Washington, DC, pp. 585–621., , , , , , , , , van & [Page 353]1998‘Human Capital and Metropolitan Employment Growth’, Journal of Urban Economics, vol. 43, no. 2, pp 223–43. http://dx.doi.org/10.1006/juec.1997.20482008‘Learning to Co-operate: China's Multilateral Approach to Asian Financial Co-operation’, The China Quarterly, vol. 194, pp. 309–326. http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S03057410080003982007‘Regionalization, Inter-regional Cooperation, and Global Governance’, Atlantic Economic Journal, vol. 5, no. 1, pp. 67–82.2009The Crash of 2008 and What It Means: The New Paradigm for Financial Markets, PublicAffairs, New York, NY.2007The Stern Review: Economics of Climate Change, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.2008‘The Economics of Climate Change, Richard T. Ely Lecture’, American Economic Review: Papers & Proceedings, vol. 98, no. 2, pp. 1–37. http://dx.doi.org/10.1257/aer.98.2.12009Report by the Commission on the Measurement of Economic Performance and Social Progress, OECD, Paris., &Subnational Doing Business2009Doing Business in Indonesia 2010, World Bank and International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC.Sustainability Institute2010Climate Scoreboard, <http://climateinteractive.org/scoreboard/scoreboard-science-and-data/current-climate-proposals-1/april-2010/Proposals%20Summary%20Apr10.pdf>.1999‘Income Inequality and Homicide Rates in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil’, American Journal of Public Health, vol. 89, no. 6, pp. 845–50. http://dx.doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.89.6.845, , &2007Inclusiveness of Economic Growth in the People's Republic of China: What Do Population Health Outcomes Tell Us?, ERD Working Paper no. 47, Asian Development Bank, Manila.&2003‘Potential Effect of Climate Change on Malaria Transmission in Africa’, The Lancet, vol. 362, no. 9398 pp. 1792–8. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736%2803%2914898-2, & [Page 354]2008Financing Energy Efficiency: Lessons from Brazil, China, India, and Beyond, World Bank, Washington, DC. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-7304-0TeamLease Services2009India Labour Report 2008—TeamLease Services 2008 India Labour Report 2008—The Right to Rise: Making India's Labour Markets Inclusive, Bangalore, India.2011‘So Who's Top of the Class Now?’, Financial Times, <http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/20904748-2423-11e0-a89a-00144feab49a.html#ixzz1FHhB8hRC>.2007‘The Difference Inclusive Growth Makes’, Latin America Emerging Markets Forum 2007 Discussion Draft, Emerging Markets Forum, Washington, DC.UNDP2005Central Asia Human Development Report, New York.United Nations2005World Population Prospects: The 2004 Revision, United Nations, New York, NY.United Nations2010Joint Statement by Heads of UN Entities for the Launch of the International Year of Youth, United Nations, New York, NY.United Nations2011a, World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision, United Nations, New York, NY.United Nations2011b, Education For All: Global Monitoring Report, 2011, United Nations, New York, NY.United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs2009World Urbanization Prospects: The 2009 Revision, United Nations, New York, NY.United Nations Development Programme2005Central Asia Human Development Report, New York, NY.UN Habitat2010The State of Asian Cities 2010/11, United Nations, New York, NY.United States Energy Information Administration2002South China Sea Region, <http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/schina2.html>.United States Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report2011Financial Crisis Inquiry Commission Report, <http://www.fcic.gov>.[Page 355]US Department of State2003Country Reports on Human Rights Practices, Burma, 31 March 2003 <http://www.state.gov/g/drl/rls/hrrpt/2002/18237.htm>.2009‘The Global Impact of Ozone on Agricultural Crop Yields under Current and Future Air Quality Legislation’, Atmospheric Environment, vol. 43, no. 3, pp. 604–18. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.10.033, , , , &2010An Update on EU Financial Reforms, Policy Brief no. PB10-30, Peterson Institute for International Economics, Washington, DC.2007Global Finance: A New Global Financial Architecture?, New Left Review, <http://newleftreview.org/?view=2681>.2004‘Is the U.S. Brain Drain on the Horizon? Immigrants Now See Better Prospects at Home’, Yale Global, December 8, 2009.2007Poverty Reduction in the New Asia and Pacific: Key Challenges of Inclusive Growth, Technical Note, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2010‘Tackling Structural Inequities’, in Kohli and Sood (eds.) India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation, Sage, New Delhi.2009Evolving Asian Power Balances and Alternative Conceptions for Building Regional Institutions, Background paper for Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community, Asian Development Bank, Manila.2011The World in 2050—Quantifying the Shift in Global Economy, HSBC Global Research, London.2009‘Poverty Reduction Through Lon-term Growth: The Thai Experience’, Asian Economic Papers, vol. 8, no. 2, pp. 51–76. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/asep.2009.8.2.512010‘Regional Economic Impacts of Large Projects: A General Equilibrium Application to Cross-Border Infrastructure’, Asian Development Review, vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 104–34., & [Page 356]2006Spotlighting the Impacts Functions in Integrated Assessment Models, Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, Norwich, UK., , , , , &2004Urbanization Dynamics and Policy Frameworks in Developing East Asia, World Bank, Washington, DC.2010‘SAFTA: Current Status and Prospects’, in SAhmed, SKelegam & EGhani (eds), Promoting Economic Cooperation in South Asia: Beyond SAFTA, World Bank, Washington, DC, pp. 71–88. http://dx.doi.org/10.4135/9788132107965.n32009‘On Modelling and Interpreting the Catastrophic Consequences of Climate Change’, Review of Economics and Statistics, vol. 91, no. 1, pp. 1–19. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/rest.91.1.12001Violence in Indonesia, Abera-Verl, Hamburg.&White House2009Progress Report: The Transformation to a Clean Energy Economy, White House, Washington, DC, 15 December 2009 <http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/administration-official/vice_president_memo_on_clean_energy_economy.pdf>.White House, Office of the Press Secretary2010Obama's State of the Union Address, White House, Washington, DC, 27 January 2010 <http://www.america.gov/st/texttrans-english/2010/January/20100127234716SBlebahC0.8334728.html>.2001‘Interpretation of High Projections for Global-Mean Warming’, Science, vol. 293, no. 5529 pp. 451–4. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1061604&2005‘The Climate Change Commitment’, Science, vol. 307, no. 5716 pp. 1766–9. http://dx.doi.org/10.1126/science.1103934World Bank2005Malaysia Firm Competitiveness, Investment Climate, and Growth, The World Bank, Washington, DC.World Bank2006World Development Report 2006, World Bank, Washington, DC.World Bank2007Cost of Pollution in China: Economic Estimates of Physical Damages, World Bank, Washington, DC.World Bank2009a, Education for the Knowledge Economy, The World Bank, Washington, DC.[Page 357]World Bank2010a, Ease of Doing Business, 2010, The World Bank, Washington, DC.World Bank2010b, Entrepreneurship Database, The World Bank, Washington, DC, <http://econ.world-bank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/0,contentMDK:21164814~pagePK:64214825~piPK:64214943~theSitePK:469382,00.html>.World Bank2010c, ‘New Firm Creation’, Viewpoint, The World Bank, Washington, DC.World Bank2010d, Knowledge Economy Index, The World Bank, Washington, DC.World Bank2010e, Doing Business in Pakistan 2010, World Bank and International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC.World Bank2010f, Doing Business in Indonesia 2010, World Bank and International Finance Corporation, Washington, DC.World Bank2010g, Economic Integration in the Maghreb, Middle East and North Africa Region, Washington, DC.World Bank & United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Risk Reduction2008South Eastern Europe Disaster Risk Mitigation and Adaptation Programme, United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction Secretariat and The World Bank, Geneva and Washington, DC.World Economic Forum, 2008Convergence of Insurance and Capital Markets, Geneva.World Economic Forum2010Global Gender Gap Report, 2010, World Economic Forum, Geneva.2007‘Summit of the Eight III: The four circles of a changing world’, New York Times, June 4, 2007 New York.2007‘Ecosystem Vulnerability of China under B2 Climate Scenario in the 21st Century’, Chinese Science Bulletin, vol. 52, no. 10, pp. 1379–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11434-007-0197-x, , , , &Avoiding the Next Earthquake Catastrophe in East Asia and the Pacific, presentation, <http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEAPREGTOPHAZRISKMGMT/Resources/drm_peter_yanev.pdf>.[Page 358]2010China to Launch Domestic Carbon Trade in Five Years, <http://www.business-green.com/business-green/news/2266875/china-launch-domestic-carbon>.2010Regional Monetary Cooperation in East Asia: Should the United States Be Concerned?, Report of the CSIS Freeman Chair in China Studies, Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington, DC.&2007Urban Mega Regions: Knowns and Unknowns, Policy Research Working Paper no. 4252 World Bank, Washington, DC. http://dx.doi.org/10.1596/1813-9450-42522001‘The Territorial Integrity Norm: International Boundaries and the Use of Force, International Organization, vol. 55, no. 2, pp. 215–25. http://dx.doi.org/10.1162/002081801511405682011Unpublished note prepared at MIT Sloan School of Management based on <http://www.nanowerk.com/nanotechnology/Nanotechnology_Companies_in_China.php>.2010‘Governance and Institutional Quality and the Links with Growth and Inequality: How Asia fares’, Poverty, Inequality, and Inclusive Growth in Asia: Measurement, Policy Issues, and Country Studies, Asian Development Bank, Manila., &Zhung, J2010 (ed.), Poverty, Inequality, and Inclusive Growth in Asia: Measurement, Policy Issues, and Country Studies, Anthem Press and Asian Development Bank, London and Manila.
About the Editors, Authors, and Contributors[Page 359]The Editors
Harinder S. Kohli is the Founding Director and Chief Executive of Emerging Markets Forum as well as President and CEO of Centennial Group International, both based in Washington, D.C. He is the Editor of Global Journal of Emerging Markets Economies, and serves as Vice Chairman of the institution-wide Advisory Group of Asian Institute of Technology (Thailand). Prior to starting his current ventures, he served some 25 years in various senior managerial positions at the World Bank. He has written extensively on the emergence of Asia and other emerging market economies, financial development, private capital flows, and infrastructure. He is co-editor of “India 2039: An Affluent Society in One Generation” (2010), “Latin America 2040—Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence” (2010), “A Resilient Asia amidst Global Financial Crisis” (2010), and “Islamic Finance” (2011).
Ashok Sharma is the Senior Director of Asian Development Bank's Office of Regional Economic Integration. He is the chair of the community of practice for regional cooperation and co-chairs the community of practice for finance of ADB. He also served as Senior Advisor of the South Asia Department of ADB and Director of Financial Sector, Public Management and Trade Division of South Asia Department. He has worked extensively on project and knowledge products on financial sector development, fiscal and governance reforms, infrastructure financing, and enabling public-private partnerships. He is the co-editor of “A Resilient Asia Amidst Global financial Crisis” (2010).
Anil Sood is Chief Operating Officer of Centennial Group International. In his 30-year career at the World Bank, he occupied many senior positions including Vice President, Strategy and Resource Management, and Special Advisor to the Managing Directors. He has since advised chief executives and senior management of a number of development organizations including the African Development Bank, the Islamic Development Bank, the United Nations Development Program, and the United Nations Economic Commission of Africa, on matters of strategy and development effectiveness. He is the co-editor of “India 2039: An Affluent Society in One [Page 360]Generation” (2010), and “Latin America 2040—Breaking Away from Complacency: An Agenda for Resurgence” (2010).The Authors
Drew Arnold graduated from Georgetown University in 2010 with an undergraduate degree in International Economics and an honors certificate in International Business Diplomacy. He is currently pursuing a master's degree in Applied Economics and a certificate in Forecasting Practice from John Hopkins University. He has been working at Centennial Group International since 2009, and currently works as an Economic Analyst. He has contributed to papers involving wealth lost during the 2008 financial crisis and the recent resilience of certain emerging market economies.
Cameron Hepburn is a Director of Vivid Economics Ltd. and Senior Research Fellow at the London School of Economics (Grantham Research Institute). He is an expert in market economics, commercial strategy, and environmental economics and ethics. He has advised governments and international institutions on environmental and climate policy, and has worked with a range of private sector clients on environmental and climate strategy. He also holds Research Fellowships at Oxford University and serves as a member of the Economics Advisory Group to the UK Secretary of State for Energy & Climate Change, and as a member of the Academic Panel, UK Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. He is an Associate Editor of the Oxford Review of Economic Policy.
Yasheng Huang is professor of political economy and international management and holds International Program Professorship in Chinese Economy and Business at Sloan School of Management, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He also holds a special-term professorship at School of Management, Fudan University and an honorary professorship at Hunan University. His previous appointments include faculty positions at the University of Michigan and at Harvard University. He is a member of MIT Entrepreneurship Center, a fellow at the Center for China in the World Economy at Tsinghua University, a research fellow at Shanghai University of Finance and Economics, a fellow at William Davidson Institute at Michigan Business School, and a World Economic Forum Fellow. Professor Huang has numerous publications to his credit, including Capitalism with Chinese Characteristics which was selected by The Economist magazine as one of the best books published in 2008.
Shigeo Katsu is President of the Nazarbayev University in Kazakhstan and Chair of the USA Board of Restless Development, a UK-based youth-oriented international NGO. Prior to these ventures, he had a 30-year career at the World Bank, where he held many senior positions, [Page 361]including Vice President for Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Special Advisor to the Managing Directors. He now also advises governments and a number of international organizations on different issues related to development.
Homi Kharas is a Senior Fellow and Deputy Director of the Global Economy and Development program at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C., has been a member of the Working Group for the Commission on Growth and Development, chaired by Michael Spence, a nonresident Fellow of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development's (OECD) Development Centre, and a member of the National Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister of Malaysia. He spent 26 years at the World Bank. His research interests are now focused on the global middle class, Asian growth and development, and international aid for the poorest countries. He has numerous publications to his credit.
Harpaul Alberto Kohli is the Manager of Information Analytics at Centennial Group International and Emerging Markets Forum, where he is responsible for all modeling, econometrics, databases, statistics, and technology management. He earned a degree with honors in Mathematics and Philosophy from Harvard University, where he served as co-president of both the Society of Physics Students and the Math Club. He earned his MBA at Georgetown University, with emphases on psychology and on financial markets and public policy. He is also a Microsoft Certified Technology Specialist.
Johannes F. Linn is a Senior Resident Scholar at the Emerging Markets Forum and a Non-resident Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution in Washington, D.C. During his 30-year career at the World Bank, he held many senior positions, including Vice President for Europe and Central Asia (ECA) and Staff Director of the World Development Report 1988. A collection of his speeches were published under the title ‘Transition Years—Reflections on Economic Reform and Social Change in Europe and Central Asia’ (World Bank, 2004). In 2004/5, he was the lead author of the United Nations Development Program's Central Asia Human Development Report. He recently edited (with Werner Hermann) the volume ‘Central Asia and The Caucasus: At the Crossroads of Eurasia in the 21st Century (Sage, 2011).
Jayant Menon is Principal Economist in the Office for Regional Economic Integration at the Asian Development Bank. He was the co-task manager of the Asia 2050 study. Prior to joining ADB, he was Senior Research Fellow at the Centre of Policy Studies at Monash University in Melbourne, Australia. He has also worked at the University of Melbourne and Victoria University, and has held visiting appointments at the Australian National University, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore, and American University in Washington, DC. He holds adjunct [Page 362]appointments at the Australian National University, University of Nottingham, and the Cambodian Institute for Cooperation and Peace. He is co-editor of the ASEAN Economic Bulletin, and serves on editorial boards of several academic journals. He is the author or co-author of more than one hundred academic publications, mostly on trade and development, and particularly as they relate to Asia.
Sabyasachi Mitra is a Senior Economist in the Office of Regional Economic Integration (OREI) of the Asian Development Bank. He was the co-task manager of the Asia 2050 study and was also the task manager of the ADB flagship study ‘Institutions for Regional Integration: Toward an Asian Economic Community.’ He participates in ASEAN+3’s Asian Bond Market Initiative (ABMI) and other regional financial initiatives. In his current capacity, he is responsible for the ADB's research on local currency bond markets and works on financial market integration and regional cooperation issues. Prior to joining the ADB, he worked as an international financial journalist with Reuters for over ten years in London; Hong Kong, China; Malaysia; and India.
Anthony Pellegrini is a partner and member of the Board of Centennial Group International. He is a former Director of Transportation, Water and Sanitation and Urban Development at the World Bank. Mr. Pellegrini is a past chairman of the International Advisory Board of Paranacidade, a Brazilian development fund that lends to local governments. Mr. Pellegrini has extensive international experience in the field of urban development and infrastructure. He chaired the Transportation, Water and Sanitation and Urban Development Sector Boards of the World Bank which brought together all regional sector managers in the Bank responsible for policy issues in these sectors. Mr. Pellegrini's recent clients have included the Asian Development Bank, the European Investment Bank, the International Fund for Agriculture Development, Japan Bank for International Cooperation, the World Bank, US Trade and Development Agency, USAID, and as well as private companies and governments.
Hossein Razavi is the former Director of the Energy and Infrastructure Department of the World Bank. During his 25-year tenure at the World Bank he served a number of managerial and professional positions including the Chief of Oil and Gas Division, the Director of the Energy Department, and the Director of Private Sector Development. Dr. Razavi's main research interest is on structuring financial vehicles suitable to the energy sector. He trains government officials and oil and gas executives on the subjects of energy finance, private sector development, and infrastructure policy. His publications include several books and numerous papers on project finance, economic planning; and energy and environment. He serves on the editorial boards of the Energy Journal and Energy Economics.
[Page 363]Andrew Sheng was Chairman of the Securities and Futures Commission, Hong Kong, from October 1998 to 30 September 2005. He has served in various positions with Bank Negara Malaysia, the World Bank, and the Hong Kong Monetary Authority. He has chaired/co-chaired the Working Party on Transparency and Accountability (one of the three Working Parties formed under the Group of Twenty-two Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors), the Financial Stability Forum‘s Task Force on Implementation of Standards (1999), and the Technical Committee of IOSCO, the International Organization of Securities Commission (2003–2005). In May 2003, he was appointed Convenor of the International Council of Advisers and Chief Adviser to the China Banking Regulatory Commission. He became Chairman, OECD-ADBI Roundtable on Capital Markets in October 2005 and concurrently Adjunct Professor, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University, Beijing and Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya.
Y. Aaron Szyf is a Policy Analyst at Centennial Group International where he focuses on analyzing projected debt sustainability and country risks for selected emerging economies. He graduated from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in Massachusetts with a Master of Arts in International Affair and concentrations in Development Economics (MALD) and International Business. In addition, Aaron holds a Master of Arts in Modern Jewish History from Yeshiva University in New York. He earned his Bachelor of Science in Finance Summa Cum Laude from the Sy Syms School of Business of Yeshiva University in 2003.
John Ward is a Principal at Vivid Economics where he specializes in environmental economics, industrial organization, finance and the application of economics to public policy issues. He has led much of Vivid Economics’ work on climate change in developing and emerging economies and the advice that Vivid Economics provided to the African Development Bank on the UN High Level Advisory Group on Climate Change Finance. He has managed projects for a diverse portfolio of clients including numerous companies, government departments and regulatory bodies, as well as the European Commission, World Bank, IEA and UNEP.With Contributions from
Amitav Acharya is Professor in the School of International Service, American University in Washington DC, and the UNESCO Chair in Transnational Challenges and Governance and Chair of the ASEAN Studies Center. Previously, he was Professor of Global Governance at the University of Bristol, Professor at York University, Toronto, and at Nanyang Technological University, Singapore, Fellow of the Harvard University Asia Center, and Fellow of Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government. His recent books include Whose Ideas Matter? (Cornell, 2009); Beyond Iraq: The Future of World Order (co-edited, World Scientific, 2011); Non-Western[Page 364]International Relations Theory (co-edited, Routledge, 2010); and The Making of Southeast Asia (Cornell, 2011).
Hans P. Binswanger-Mkhize is a development economist who has conducted research on a wide range of topics related to agriculture. In his 25 years at the World Bank, he was a manager in the World Bank's central Rural Development Department, as well as in the Latin America and Africa Regions. He assisted a number of countries in the development of agricultural and rural development strategies, and in the design of Community-Driven Development Programs and HIV/AIDS programs. He was the architect and writer of the 1997 Rural Development Strategy of the World Bank. He is a fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences and of the American Association of Agricultural Economists, as well as a recipient of the Elmhirst Medal of the International Agricultural Economics Association.
Vinod Goel, a former World Bank official, is Head of Global Knowledge and Innovation Practice at Centennial Group International, and consultant for the World Bank and other international organizations. He is also the CEO and President of the Lagom Group. Mr Goel is a leading expert on private and financial sector issues and is well known in the international community for his pioneering work on higher education, technology and innovation, including publishing books on the subject. His global experience includes countries in Asia, Europe, Africa and Latin American Regions. He has a PhD and MBA from Cornell University, USA and Masters of Technology from National Dairy Research Institute, India.
Natasha Mukherjee is the Deputy Editor of the Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies. She has held numerous positions in regional and international financial institutions (SADC, the Southern African Development Community, World Bank), academia (University of Zimbabwe) and non-governmental organizations (IFRPI, the International Food Policy Research Institute, Southern African Regional Poverty Network), and has worked on a variety of topics in the fields of agricultural, environmental, trade and development economics. She holds a Ph.D. in environmental economics from the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, USA.
Ramesh Mashelkar is the President of the Global Research Alliance, a network of public research institutions globally. He is Chairman of the National Innovation Foundation and the Reliance Innovation Council in India. He serves on the boards of several companies and educational and research organizations. He served for 11 years as the Director General of the Council of Scientific and Industrial Research. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society (U.K.) and Foreign Associate of the National Academy of Science (U.S.), and Foreign Fellow of the National Academy of Engineering (U.S.). He lectures widely and consults for national and international [Page 365]organizations on innovation and restructuring public research and development (R&D) institutions worldwide. He has received more than 50 awards and medals including the Padma Shri and Padma Bhushan, two of India's highest civilian honors.[Page 366]