The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour
The study of voting behaviour remains a vibrant sub-discipline of political science. The Handbook of Electoral Behaviour is an authoritative and wide ranging survey of this dynamic field, drawing together a team of the world's leading scholars to provide a state-of-the-art review that sets the agenda for future study. Taking an interdisciplinary approach and focusing on a range of countries, the handbook is composed of eight parts. The first five cover the principal theoretical paradigms, establishing the state of the art in their conceptualisation and application, and followed by chapters on their specific challenges and innovative applications in contemporary voting studies. The remaining three parts explore elements of the voting process to understand their different effects on vote outcomes. The SAGE Handbook of Electoral Behaviour ...
- Front Matter
- Subject Index
Part I: INSTITUTIONAL APPROACHES
- Chapter 2: Institutions and Voter Choice: Who Chooses, What Do They Choose Over, and How Do They Choose
- Chapter 3: Party Systems and Voter Alignments
- Chapter 4: The Study of Less Important Elections
- Chapter 5: Clarity of Responsibility and Vote Choice
- Chapter 6: Voting in New(er) Democracies
Part II: SOCIOLOGICAL APPROACHES
- Chapter 7: Age and Voting
- Chapter 8: Gender and Voting
- Chapter 9: Social Class and Voting
- Chapter 10: Religion
- Chapter 11: Race, Ethnicity and Elections: From Recognizable Patterns to Generalized Theories
- Chapter 12: Social Networks and Voter Mobilization
Part III: PARTISANSHIP
- Chapter 13: The Evolving Role of Partisanship
- Chapter 14: Party Identification: Meaning and Measurement
- Chapter 15: Cognitive Mobilization
Part IV: VOTER DECISION-MAKING
- Chapter 16: Strategic Voting
- Chapter 17: Integrating Genetics into the Study of Electoral Behavior
- Chapter 18: Emotions and Voting
- Chapter 19: Referendums
- Chapter 20: Turnout
Part V: ISSUES AND ATTITUDES
- Chapter 21: Ideology and Core Values
- Chapter 22: Issue Ownership: An Ambiguous Concept
- Chapter 23: Valence
- Chapter 24: Value Cleavages
- Chapter 25: The VP-Function: A Review
- Chapter 26: The Economic Vote: Ordinary vs. Extraordinary Times
Part VI: CANDIDATES AND CAMPAIGNS
- Chapter 27: Voter Evaluation of Candidates and Party Leaders
- Chapter 28: Candidate Location and Vote Choice
- Chapter 29: The Personal Vote
- Chapter 30: Candidate Attractiveness
- Chapter 31: Campaign Effects
- Chapter 32: Economic Voting in a New Media Environment: Preliminary Evidence and Implications
- Chapter 33: Campaign Spending
Part VII: POLLING AND FORECASTING
- Chapter 34: Polls and Votes
- Chapter 35: Econometric Approaches to Forecasting
- Chapter 36: Wisdom of Crowds
- Chapter 37: Political Markets
- Chapter 38: Social Media and Elections: A Meta-analysis of Online-based Electoral Forecasts
Part VIII: METHODS
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Introduction & editorial arrangement © Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck 2017
Chapter 1 © Kai Arzheimer, Jocelyn Evans and Michael S. Lewis-Beck 2017
Chapter 2 © Shaun Bowler 2017
Chapter 3 © Åsa von Schoultz 2017
Chapter 4 © Hermann Schmitt and Eftichia Teperoglou 2017
Chapter 5 © Thiago Silva and Guy D. Whitten 2017
Chapter 6 © Lenka Bustikova and Elizabeth J. Zechmeister 2017
Chapter 7 © Ruth Dassonneville 2017
Chapter 8 © Rosie Campbell 2017
Chapter 9 © Geoffrey Evans 2017
Chapter 10 © Martin Elff and Sigrid Roßteutscher 2017
Chapter 11 © Maria Sobolewska 2017
Chapter 12 © Marc Hooghe 2017
Chapter 13 © Elias Dinas 2017
Chapter 14 © Donald P. Green and Susanne Baltes 2017
Chapter 15 © Todd Donovan 2017
Chapter 16 © Thomas Gschwend and Michael F. Meffert 2017
Chapter 17 © Carisa L. Bergner and Peter K. Hatemi 2017
Chapter 18 © David P. Redlawsk and Douglas R. Pierce 2017
Chapter 19 © Alan Renwick 2017
Chapter 20 © Hanna Wass and André Blais 2017
Chapter 21 © Robert N. Lupton, Adam M. Enders and William G. Jacoby 2017
Chapter 22 © Wouter van der Brug 2017
Chapter 23 © Jane Green and Will Jennings 2017
Chapter 24 © Romain Lachat 2017
Chapter 25 © Mary Stegmaier, Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Beomseob Park 2017
Chapter 26 © Michael S. Lewis-Beck and Marina Costa Lobo 2017
Chapter 27 © Diego Garzia 2017
Chapter 28 © Jocelyn Evans 2017
Chapter 29 © Thomas Zittel 2017
Chapter 30 © Markus Klein and Ulrich Rosar 2017
Chapter 31 © Richard Johnston 2017
Chapter 32 © Diana C. Mutz and Eunji Kim 2017
Chapter 33 © Zachary Albert and Raymond La Raja 2017
Chapter 34 © Robert Ford, Christopher Wlezien, Mark Pickup and Will Jennings 2017
Chapter 35 © Éric Bélanger and David Trotter 2017
Chapter 36 © Andreas Murr 2017
Chapter 37 © Andreas Graefe 2017
Chapter 38 © Andrea Ceron, Luigi Curini and Stefano M. Iacus 2017
Chapter 39 © Robert Johns 2017
Chapter 40 © Marcel Lubbers and Take Sipma 2017
Chapter 41 © Catherine de Vries 2017
Chapter 42 © Kai Arzheimer 2017
Chapter 43 © Marianne Stewart 2017
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Library of Congress Control Number: 2017933298
British Library Cataloguing in Publication data
A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library
List of Figures[Page ix]
- 5.1 Early theories of economic voting 82
- 5.2 Economic voting with clarity of responsibility 83
- 5.3 Google Scholar citations of Powell and Whitten (1993) 85
- 6.1 Distribution of most important problem issue areas over time, Latin America 105
- 6.2 Decline in confidence in democracy, Eastern Europe 114
- 6.3 Freedom of the press in Eastern Europe 117
- 7.1 Probability of turning out to vote by age 143
- 7.2 Predicted fixed and random time effects on turnout 147
- 7.3 Strength of party attachment by age 151
- 7.4 Predicted fixed and random time effects on the strength of party attachments 154
- 8.1 US gender gap in Presidential Elections 164
- 15.1 The cognitive mobilization typology 316
- 15.2 Interest in public affairs, USA 1964–2008 323
- 15.3 Interest in politics, Australia 1987–2013 323
- 15.4 Differences in political interest across age cohorts (35 and under vs. 55 and over), 1964–2004 325
- 15.5 Trends in self-reported education, USA 1964–2004 326
- 15.6 Average cognitive mobilization score, USA 1964–2008 329
- 15.7 Percentage high cognitive mobilization, USA 329
- 15.8 Low cognitive mobilization: Partisans and independents 331
- 15.9 High cognitive mobilization: Partisans and independents 332
- 17.1 Relative genetic and environmental influences on electoral traits 373
- 17.2 Relative genetic and environmental influences on related social traits 373
- 19.1 Frequency of national referendums, by decade 435
- 19.2 Frequency of national referendums in democracies, by decade 436
- 19.3 Frequency of state-level citizen-initiated referendums in the United States, by decade 437
- 20.1 The funnel model of turnout 463
- 24.1 Libertarian-authoritarian value gap between education groups and social classes, by country 573
- 24.2 Relation between citizens’ positions on the three value dimensions 575
- 24.3 Strength of the relation between citizens’ value orientations and the position of the party they voted for (Pearson correlations) 576
- 24.4 Party system polarization on the three value dimensions 577
- 28.1 Importance of MP living in their constituency for British voters (2013) 661
- 29.1 Two dimensions of personal vote seeking 672
- 32.1 Percentage of partisan TV programs watched, by respondent partisanship 742
- 32.2 Over time economic assessments by party identification 746
- 32.3 Relationship between neutral program viewership and retrospective economic perceptions 748
- 32.4 Relationship between inparty media consumption and retrospective economic perceptions 750
- 32.5 Relationship between internet news usage and retrospective economic perceptions 752
- 34.1 Polling Observatory pooled public opinion estimates April 2010–April 2015 804
- 36.1 The ‘wisdom of crowds’ emerges even in small groups. 837
- 36.2 The accuracy of election forecasts by political scientist, journalists, editors, the public, and opinion polls in the 2006 Swedish Parliamentary election 848
- 38.1 Marginal effect of number of posts on MAE at different levels of turnout (with 95% confidence interval) 896
- 40.1 Percentage of voters for the State Reformed Party (SGP) and Christian Union (CU) in the Dutch General Elections of 2012 937
- 42.1 A typology of complex data structures 976
List of Tables[Page xi]
- 2.1 Should voters be required to show official photo ID before they vote on Election Day? 12
- 2.2 Predicting average ‘Propensity to Vote’ (Random effects by country) 23
- 3.1 A conceptual framework for differences, divides and cleavages 35
- 7.1 Hierarchical APC model explaining turnout – cross-classified random effects 147
- 7.2 Hierarchical APC model explaining partisan strength – cross-classified random effects 153
- 14.1 Selected international examples of party identification question wording 294
- 14.2 Overview of party identification question types and sources 296
- 14.3 Correlations and covariances among pre- and post-election measures of party identification 299
- 15.1 Percentage enrolling in tertiary education following on from secondary education 327
- 15.2 Percentage of GDP spent on education 328
- 16.1 Sequential decision-making process and formation of expectations by strategic voters 347
- 16.2 Strategic coalition voting motivations and strategies 349
- 17.1 Genes implicated for political traits and related social traits 385
- 19.1 Turnout in elections and referendums in democratic countries since 1990 439
- 19.2 Opinion change during referendum campaigns 451
- 24.1 Factor loadings for the immigration scale 583
- 24.2 Factor loadings for the libertarian-authoritarian dimension 583
- 27.1 The impact of trait evaluations on thermometer scores: Italy (above) and the US 637
- 27.2 Party leader effects in three parliamentary democracies, by decade 641
- 27.3 Party identification, leader evaluations and vote choice: pre-post estimation 644
- 33.1 Results from an online search of journal articles published between 1980 and 2010 which contain one or more of the terms ‘campaign finance’, ‘campaign spending’, or ‘party finance’ 761
- 33.2 Campaign finance disclosure requirements by region and country 775
- 36.1 The probability that a citizen will correctly forecast depending on p and k when she randomly contacts voters 839
- 36.2 Accuracy of final vote intention and vote share expectation surveys in the 2015 British general election 850
- 36.3 Accuracy of vote intention and seat number expectation surveys in the 1999 and 2002 New Zealand Parliamentary Elections 852
- 37.1 Comparison of prediction markets and expectation surveys 867
- 37.2 Forecast accuracy of prediction markets vs. alternative methods 872
- 38.1 A typology of methods employed to perform social media-based electoral forecast 886
- 38.2 Determinants of the accuracy of social media predictions: Fractional Logit of the electoral forecast MAE (Mean Absolute Error) 894
- 40.1 Multi-level model explaining opposition to further EU unification in the EU member states as a function of education 941
- 40.2 Multi-level model explaining opposition to further EU unification in the EU member states 942
- 40.3 Multi-level model explaining voting for radical right parties in 21 European countries (binomial distribution assumption, 2nd order linearization and MQL estimation type) 944
- 40.4 Multi-level model explaining between and within-person effects on the opinion towards the PVV 946
- 40.5 Multi-level model explaining opinion towards the PVV over time 947
- 41.1 Longest series of national election surveys 955
Notes on the Editors and Contributors[Page xiii]THE EDITORS
Kai Arzheimer is Professor of Political Science at the University of Mainz, Germany. He has published over 50 articles, chapters and books on political attitudes, research methods, and voting behaviour (particularly support for the Radical Right) and is the co-editor, with Jocelyn Evans, of Electoral Behaviour (Sage, 2008) in the Library of Political Science series.
Jocelyn Evans is Professor of Politics at the University of Leeds. His interests are voting behaviour, particularly in France and other European countries, and parties of the Radical Right. Professor Evans is the author of Voters and Voting: an Introduction (Sage, 2004) and co-editor, with Kai Arzheimer, of Electoral Behaviour (Sage, 2008) in the Library of Political Science series. He has written over 50 articles and books on various aspects of electoral behaviour. He served as editor of Parliamentary Affairs between 2005 and 2011. He has held visiting research positions at the ZA-Eurolab in Cologne, Germany, and the CIDSP, Grenoble, France.
Michael S. Lewis-Beck is F. Wendell Miller Distinguished Professor of Political Science at the University of Iowa. His interests are comparative elections, election forecasting, political economy, and quantitative methodology. Professor Lewis-Beck has authored or co-authored over 260 articles and books, including Economics and Elections, The American Voter Revisited, French Presidential Elections, Forecasting Elections, The Austrian Voter and Applied Regression. He has served as Editor of the American Journal of Political Science and of the Sage QASS series (the green monographs) in quantitative methods. Currently he is Associate Editor of International Journal of Forecasting and of French Politics. In addition to his position at Iowa, he has held various positions abroad including, more recently, Paul Lazersfeld University Professor at the University of Vienna; Visiting Professor at Center for Citizenship and Democracy, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Belgium; Visiting Professor at LUISS University, Rome; Visiting Senior Scholar, Political Science, University of Aarhus, Denmark.[Page xiv]THE CONTRIBUTORS
Adam M. Enders is Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University, where he received his PhD in 2016. Very broadly, he is interested in public opinion and quantitative methodology, with more specific interests in the role of conspiratorial thinking, core values, and group orientations in the formation and expression of mass opinion, and latent variable modeling. His work on core values and polarization is forthcoming in the British Journal of Political Science.
Alan Renwick is the Deputy Director of the Constitution Unit in the Department of Political Science at University College London. His research examines the causes and consequences of political institutions, looking particularly at electoral systems, referendums, and instruments for deliberative democracy such as citizens’ assemblies. His books include The Politics of Electoral Reform: Changing the Rules of Democracy (Cambridge University Press 2010) and Faces on the Ballot: The Personalization of Electoral Systems in Europe, co-authored with Jean-Benoit Pilet (Oxford University Press, 2016). He is currently conducting research into the best rules for governing the conduct of referendums.
André Blais is Professor in the Department of Political Science at the Université de Montréal. He is the principal co-investigator of the ‘Making Electoral Democracy Work’ project. He is a fellow of the Royal Society of Canada, a research fellow with the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship (CSDC) and the Centre for Interuniversity Research Analysis on Organizations (CIRANO). He is a past president of the Canadian Political Science Association. His research interests are elections, electoral systems, turnout, public opinion and methodology.
Andrea Ceron is Assistant Professor of Polimetrics at Università degli Studi di Milano. His research focuses on intra-party politics, quantitative text analysis, and social media. He has published 30 articles in academic journals on topics such as intra-party politics, quantitative text analysis, social media analysis and trust in political institutions. He is also co-founder and board member of VOICES from the Blogs LTD. Through VOICES he collaborates as sentiment analysis advisor for the Italian government, political parties and mass media.
Andreas Graefe (PhD in economics) is the endowed Sky Professor at Macromedia University in Munich. As the leader of the PollyVote.com project he has done extensive validation work on different methods for forecasting elections. He has also developed new models that include information about candidates and campaigns and thus have decision-making implications for political strategists.[Page xv]
Andreas Murr is Assistant Professor in Quantitative Political Science at the Department of Politics and International Studies in the University of Warwick, member of the Q-Step Centre Warwick and Associate Member of Nuffield College. He is also member of the Editorial Board of Electoral Studies and Treasurer of the Political Methodology Specialist Group of the Political Studies Association. His research focuses on election forecasting, the voting behaviour of immigrants, and the selection of party leaders. His work has been published in Electoral Studies, the International Journal of Forecasting, Political Analysis, and Research & Politics.
Åsa von Schoultz (née Bengtsson) is a Professor of Political Science at Mid Sweden University. She specializes in the political behavior of voters and elites with a specific interest in preferences for political processes and intra-party competition under open list PR. She is a member of the steering committee of the Finnish National Election Study and of the Comparative Candidate Survey (CCS) and is responsible for the Swedish part of the European Values Study in 2017. Von Schoultz is a co-author of the Nordic Voter: Myths of Exceptionalism (2014) and her work has been published in journals such as the European Journal of Political Research, Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties and West European Politics.
Beomseob Park is a PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at the University of Missouri. He received a Master of Science degree in Global Politics from the London School of Economics and Political Science. His research focuses on the role of economy in voting behavior, political methodology, political parties, and how international factors affect electoral accountability and party mobilization. In particular, using Vote-Popularity Function his recent project examines determinants of varying degrees of electoral manipulation, focusing on the macroeconomic conditions in the linkage between incumbents’ winning probability and the use of manipulation. His articles have been appeared in the Conflict Management and Peace Science and the International Political Science Review.
Carisa L. Bergner is a PhD student in the Department of Political Science at the Pennsylvania State University. Her current research investigates public opinion and the use of science in policymaking, particularly concerning climate change.
Catherine de Vries is Professor of Politics in the Department of Government at the University of Essex. She is also an affiliated Professor of Politics at the University of Amsterdam and associate member of Nuffield College Oxford. Her research spans a range of topics concerning political behaviour, with a special [Page xvi]focus on elections, political parties and public opinion in the context of Europe and the European Union. In 2013 Catherine was selected as a Young Global Leader of the World Economic Forum for her academic and social engagement, and in 2014 she received the American Political Science Association Emerging Scholar Award for her contribution to the field of elections, public opinion and voting behaviour. She is co-founding editor of the first field-wide open-access journal in political science, Research & Politics.
Christopher Wlezien is Hogg Professor of Government at the University of Texas at Ausin. He previously has been on the faculties of Oxford University, the University of Houston, and Temple University. He holds or has held visiting positions at Academia Sinica (Taipei), Columbia University, European University Institute (Florence), Instituto Empresa (Madrid), the Juan March Institute (Madrid), University of Mannheim (Germany), McGill University (Montreal), Sciences Po (Paris), and the University of Manchester (UK). His primary, ongoing research develops and tests a ‘thermostatic’ model of public opinion and policy, and his other major project assesses the evolution of voter preferences over the course of the election ‘timeline'. He has published numerous articles and chapters as well as a number of books, including Degrees of Democracy and Who Gets Represented? and The Timeline of Presidential Elections. Wlezien was founding co-editor of the international Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties. He currently is Associate Editor of Public Opinion Quarterly, Research and Politics, and Parliamentary Affairs and a member of the editorial boards of five other journals.
David P. Redlawsk is James R. Soles Professor of Political Science and Chair of the Department of Political Science and International Relations at the University of Delaware. He currently serves as a Vice President of the International Society of Political Psychology. His research focuses on campaigns, elections, the role of information in voter decision making and on emotional responses to campaign information. He has received several grants to support his research from the US National Science Foundation, and served on the Board of Overseers for the American National Election Studies from 2009–2013, and a co-editor of the journal Political Psychology from 2010–2015. His book includes The Positive Case for Negative Campaigning (2014, University of Chicago Press, with Kyle Mattes) and Why Iowa?: How Caucuses and Sequential Elections Improve the Presidential Nominating Process (2011, University of Chicago Press, with Caroline Tolbert and Todd Donovan). An earlier book with Richard Lau, How Voters Decide: Information Processing in an Election Campaign (2006, Cambridge University Press) won the Alexander George Award for best book in political psychology from the International Society of Political Psychology.[Page xvii]
David Trotter received his Masters degree from the Department of Political Science at McGill University in 2016. During his time there, he was also a member of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship. His main work looks at the impact of localism on election outcomes within the context of American and Canadian politics. His Masters thesis examined the role of the localism factor in the rise of the New Democratic Party in Quebec in the 2011 Canadian federal election. He is also interested in the forecasting of American elections using local electoral and economic data.
Diana C. Mutz is Samuel A. Stouffer Professor of Political Science and Communication at the University of Pennsylvania where she studies political psychology and mass political behavior, with a particular emphasis on political communication. At Penn she serves as Director of the Institute for the Study of Citizens and Politics. In 2011, she received the Lifetime Career Achievement Award in Political Communication from the American Political Science Association. She was inducted as a Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences in 2008. Her award-winning books include Impersonal Influence: How Perceptions of Mass Collectives Affect Political Attitudes (Cambridge University Press, 1998), Hearing the Other Side: Deliberative Versus Participatory Democracy (Cambridge University Press, 2006) and In-Your-Face Politics: The Consequences of Uncivil Media (Princeton University Press, 2016). Mutz also served as founding co-PI of Time-sharing Experiments for the Social Sciences (TESS), an interdisciplinary infrastructure project that continues to promote methodological innovation across the social sciences.
Diego Garzia is a Senior Researcher and Lecturer at the University of Lucerne. His current research project ‘Personalization of Politics between Television and the Internet', funded by an AMBIZIONE Grant of the Swiss National Science Foundation, investigates the extent to which political leaders have come to affect voters’ choice as well as the role played by old and new media in driving this development across time. He sits in the Scientific Council of the Italian National Election Study (ITANES) and he is a co-convenor of the ECPR Research Network on Voting Advice Applications.
Donald P. Green is J.W. Burgess Professor of Political Science at Columbia University and a fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences. The author of four books and more than one hundred essays, Green's scholarship focuses primarily on campaigns and elections. He has written extensively on political partisanship and in 2002 co-authored the book Partisan Hearts and Minds: Political Parties and the Social Identities of Voters, New Haven: Yale University Press.[Page xviii]
Douglas R. Pierce received his PhD from Rutgers University in 2015. His research focuses on attitudes, voting, emotions, and the social dimension of political preferences. He received a Distinguished Junior Scholar award from the Political Psychology section of the American Political Science Association and has published work on voting preferences and social media effects in the journal Political Behavior.
Eftichia Teperoglou is Lecturer at the Aristotle University of Thessaloniki. Her main research interests are in the fields of political and electoral behaviour with a focus on European elections, comparative politics and public opinion. She is one of the founders of the Hellenic National Election Study (ELNES).She has published her work in international journals and in edited volumes. She is the author of the book The other ‘national’ elections. Analyzing the European Elections in Greece 1981–2014, Papazissis, Athens, 2016.
Elias Dinas is Associate Professor of Comparative Politics at the University of Oxford and Tutorial Fellow at Brasenose College. His research interests lie in the fields of political sociology, the formation of partisan and ideological identities and the legacy of the authoritarian rule on political attitudes. His research has been published in various journals and has been discussed in various media outlets, including the Economist, the New York Times and the Atlantic. He took his PhD in 2010 from the European University Institute.
Elizabeth J. Zechmeister is Professor of political science and Director of the Latin American Public Opinion Project (LAPOP) at Vanderbilt University. Her interests are in comparative public opinion and behavior, in particular in Latin America, and her work includes studies of voting, ideology, political parties, representation, charisma, and crisis. She is co-author of Democracy at Risk: How Terrorist Threats Affect the Public (University of Chicago Press, 2009) and Latin American Party Systems (Cambridge University Press, 2010). She is co-editor of The Latin American Voter: Pursuing Representation and Accountability in Challenging Contexts (University of Michigan Press, 2015). She has received Vanderbilt's Jeffrey Nordhaus Award for Excellence in Undergraduate Teaching and its Award for Excellence in Graduate Teaching.
Éric Bélanger is Professor in the Department of Political Science at McGill University and is a member of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship. His research interests include political parties, public opinion, voting behavior, as well as Quebec and Canadian politics. He has published more than 50 articles on these topics in scholarly journals such as Comparative Political Studies, Political Research Quarterly, Electoral Studies, Publius: The Journal of Federalism, the European Journal of Political Research, and the Canadian Journal of Political Science. He is also the co-author of 5 books [Page xix]including one on Quebec politics, Le comportement électoral des Québécois (winner of the 2010 Donald Smiley Prize).
Eunji Kim is a Joint PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science and Annenberg School of Communication and a MS candidate in Statistics at the Wharton School at the University of Pennsylvania. Her research focuses on understanding how media shape citizens’ economic perceptions and influence their redistributive policy preferences. She holds a BA in Government from Harvard University.
Geoffrey Evans is Official Fellow in Politics, Nuffield College and Professor of the Sociology of Politics, University of Oxford. He has published widely in political science, sociology and related disciplines and has directed numerous large-scale research projects in Western and Eastern Europe, including the current British Election Study and EU Referendum Study. His interests include the evolution of political cleavages in Western and post-communist systems, social divisions and political representation, and the relationship between voters’ perceptions, values and political choices. His books include The End of Class Politics? (1999), Political Choice Matters: Explaining the Strength of Class and Religious Cleavages in Cross-National Perspective (2013), and The New Politics of Class: The Political Exclusion of the British Working Class (2017). He is also co-editor of ElectoralStudies.
Guy D. Whitten is Professor and College of Liberal Arts Cornerstone Fellow in the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University. He is also the Director of the European Union Center and the Director of the Program in Scientific Political Methodology. Dr Whitten's primary research and teaching interests are political economy, public policy, political methodology, and comparative politics. Much of his published research has involved cross-national comparative studies of the influence of economics on government popularity and elections. His recent research examines tradeoffs in political budgeting. Dr Whitten has also published a number of influential works on the use of statistics to make inferences in the social sciences. Together with Paul Kellstedt, Dr Whitten has written a textbook titled The Fundamentals of Political Science Research (Cambridge University Press 2009, 2013; Portuguese version published by Blucher 2015). He is a co-editor of Cambridge University Press book series Methodological Tools in the Social Sciences and currently serves on the editorial boards of The American Journal of Political Science Electoral Studies, Political Science and Research Methods, and Social Science Quarterly.
Hanna Wass is Academy Research Fellow and university lecturer in the Department of Political and Economic Studies at the University of Helsinki. Her current research project ‘Equality in electoral participation and vote choice', [Page xx]funded by the Academy of Finland, uses individual-level register datasets to examine various biases in turnout. She is a member of the steering committee of the Finnish National Election Study and a co-convenor of the ECPR standing group Voting Behavior and Public Opinion. She is a past president of the Finnish Political Science Association. Her work has been published in journals such as European Journal of Political Research, Electoral Studies, Political Research Quarterly and Parliamentary Affairs. She is a co-author of Health and Political Engagement (Routledge, forthcoming).
Hermann Schmitt is Professor of political science. He holds a Chair in Electoral Politics at the University of Manchester and is a research fellow of the MZES and Professor at the University of Mannheim. He received his doctorate from the University of Duisburg, and holds a venia legendi from both the Free University of Berlin and the University of Mannheim. He has been participating in a number of comparative projects; perhaps most important is his involvement, from 1979 on, in the series of European Election Studies. He received substantial research grants from European, German and British institutions. He is the author and editor of numerous books and articles on electoral behaviour in multi-level systems, and on political representation in the European Union.
Jane Green is Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester. She is Co-Director of the British Election Study funded by the Economic and Social Research Council. Jane's research interests are in public opinion and electoral behaviour. In particular, her research focuses on long-term contextual explanations of political choice, and over-time variation in public opinion. Her forthcoming book (with Will Jennings, published by Cambridge University Press) examines public opinion about party competence, revealing short-term performance impacts, cyclical dynamics accounting for costs of ruling, and the impact of shocks on parties’ reputations across policy issues. Jane was a member of the UK's independent inquiry into the 2015 general election polling miss and is an election analyst for ITV News, for which she provided analysis and comment on the 2015 UK general election, the 2016 UK referendum on European Union membership, and the 2016 US Presidential election. She received her DPhil from Nuffield College, University of Oxford and has held visiting positions at the University of California at Berkeley and the Center for European Studies, Harvard University.
Lenka Bustikova is Assistant Professor in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. Her research focuses on party politics, voting behavior, clientelism, and state capacity, with special reference to Eastern Europe, and appears in Comparative Political Studies, Communist and Post-Communist Studies, Journal of Contemporary European Studies, Journal for the Study of Antisemitism, Swiss Political Science Review and World Politics. She is [Page xxi]the recipient of the 2015 Best Article Prize, awarded by the American Political Science Association's European Politics and Society Section, for her article ‘Revenge of the Radical Right'.
Luigi Curini is Associate Professor of Political Science in the Department of Social and Political Sciences at Università degli Studi di Milano. He is also an affiliated Professor of Polimetrics at Waseda University of Tokyo. In 2016 Luigi was selected as an alumnus for the International Leadership Visiting Program of the US Department of State. He is co-founding and board member of VOICES from the Blogs (http://voices-int.com), an academic company working in the Big Data predictive analytics field. His research spans a range of topics concerning party competition, with a special focus on valence politics and spatial theory of voting, public opinion, quantitative methods, legislative behaviors, and social media analytics. He is the author of several books and articles published in international scientific journals.
Marc Hooghe is Professor of Political Science at the University of Leuven (Belgium), where he directs the Centre for Citizenship and Democracy. His main research focus is on political participation and the democratic linkage between citizens and the state, with a special focus on forms of inequality in contemporary society. He holds an ERC Advanced Grant, and he is a co-founder of the Leuven-Montréal Winter School on Electoral Behaviour. He is also one of the Principal Investigators for the Belgian Election Study, and a regular contributor to the political debate in Belgium. He holds PhDs in political science and in sociology, and a Master degree in history.
Marcel Lubbers is Professor of Sociology at the Department of Sociology at the Radboud University Nijmegen. He has conducted cross-national research on voting for the radical right, testing the role of contextual and individual level characteristics of this voting behavior and in particular their cross-level interactions. He also focuses on research on migrant integration.
Maria Sobolewska is Senior Lecturer in Politics (Quantitative Methods) at the University of Manchester. She has been involved in many projects on electoral participation and representation of ethnic minorities including the Ethnic Minority British Election Study 2010; Representative Audit of Britain Candidate Survey 2015, Centre of Dynamics of Ethnicity, and Pathways to Power: The Political Representation of Citizens of Immigrant Origin in Seven European Democracies. She has published in political science journals such as European Journal of Political Research, British Journal of Political Science, Political Studies, West European Politics; and ethnic studies journals such as Ethnic and Racial Studies and Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies. She is interested in race and ethnicity, electoral behaviour and measurement of public opinion.[Page xxii]
Marianne Stewart is a Professor in the School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences at the University of Texas at Dallas. She has been Editor of The American Journal of Political Science, Associate Editor of International Studies Quarterly, Assistant Editor of The Journal of Politics, and Political Science Program Director at the National Science Foundation. Her research and teaching areas include the logic, methodology and scope of political science; political attitudes, electoral choice and political participation; the political economy of regime change and development; and survey research data collection and analysis. She and her colleagues have received research support from the Economic and Social Research Council (UK), the National Science Foundation, and other sources; and have published research articles in The American Journal of Political Science, The American Political Science Review, Political Analysis, and other journals, as well as recent books on Affluence, Austerity and Electoral Change in Britain with Cambridge University Press and on Austerity and Political Choice in Britain with Palgrave Pivot/Macmillan.
Marina Costa Lobo is a Political Science Principal Researcher at the Social Sciences Institute of the University of Lisbon. Her research has focused on electoral behaviour and political institutions. She has been co-director of the Portuguese Election Study since 2001. Recent publications include Personality Politics? The role of Leader Evaluations in Democratic Elections (edited with J. Curtice at Oxford University Press) and academic articles in Political Research Quarterly, European Journal of Political Research, Electoral Studies and Party Politics. In 2015, she won an ERC Consolidator Grant to study the politicisation of the EU before and after the Eurozone crisis.
Mark Pickup is Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Simon Fraser University. Mark is a specialist in Comparative Politics and Political Methodology. Substantively, his research primarily falls into four areas: political identities and vote choice, the economy and democratic accountability; conditions of democratic responsiveness; and polls and electoral outcomes. His research focuses on political information, public opinion, political identities, the media, election campaigns and electoral institutions within North American and European countries. His methodological interests concern the analysis of longitudinal data (time series, panel, network, etc.) with a secondary interest in Bayesian analysis.
Markus Klein is Professor of Political Sociology at the Institute for Political Science at the University of Hanover. He received his Doctorate from the University of Cologne and holds a venia legendi from the same University. His research interests include elections, value change, party members, and public opinion. His work has been published in journals such as European Journal of Political Research, International Journal of Public Opinion Research and [Page xxiii]German Politics. Together with Tim Spier he is currently Principal Investigator of the ‘German Part Membership Study 2017', funded by the German Science Foundation (DFG).
Martin Elff is Professor of Political Sociology at Zeppelin University, Friedrichshafen, Germany. He holds a Doctorate in Social Sciences awarded by the University of Mannheim and obtained a post-doctoral certificate (Habilitation) from the University of Konstanz. His research interests include various topics in the fields of political sociology, comparative politics, and political methodology. He serves as a member of the editorial board of the journal Electoral Studies and is a member of the board of the German Society of Electoral Studies (DGfW). He has published numerous contributions to edited volumes, as well as research articles in journals such as Electoral Studies, European Journal of Political Research, German Politics, Perspectives on Politics, and Political Analysis.
Mary Stegmaier is Assistant Professor in the Truman School of Public Affairs at the University of Missouri. Her research concentrates on elections, voting behavior, and party support in the US and abroad, with an emphasis on Central Europe. Her articles have appeared in a variety of academic journals including Public Choice,Electoral Studies, Political Behavior, Party Politics, East European Politics and Societies, and the Annual Review of Political Science. She has also served as an international election observer with the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in Macedonia, Kyrgyzstan, and Belarus.
Michael F. Meffert is Lecturer in Political Psychology and Political Communication in the Institute of Political Science at Leiden University. His research focuses on motivated information processing and decision-making, in particular selective exposure and strategic voting in multiparty systems. His research has been published in journals such as the American Political Science Review, Electoral Studies, the European Journal of Political Research, and the Journal of Politics.
Peter K. Hatemi is Distinguished Professor of Political Science, Microbiology and Biochemistry at Penn State. His research currently focuses on explicating individual differences in preferences, decision-making, and social behaviors on a wide range of topics, including: political behaviors and attitudes, addiction, political violence and terrorism, public health, gender identification, religion, mate selection, and the nature of interpersonal relationships.
Raymond La Raja is Associate Professor of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. His research focuses on political parties and interest groups, elections and campaign finance, and political reform. He is the [Page xxiv]author of Small Change: Money, Political Parties and Campaign Finance Reform (2008) and Campaign Finance and Political Polarization: When Purists Prevail (2015).
Richard Johnston (PhD Stanford) is Professor of Political Science and Canada Research Chair in Public Opinion, Elections, and Representation at UBC. He has also taught at the University of Toronto, the California Institute of Technology, Harvard University (Mackenzie King chair, 1994–5), and the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author or co-author of five books, three on Canadian politics and two on US Politics. He has co-edited four other books and has written 90 articles and book chapters. Much of his work focuses on elections and public opinion in Canada and the US. He was Principal Investigator of the 1988 and 1992–3 Canadian Election Studies and Research Director for the National Annenberg Election Survey (Penn), 2000–8. Both research programmes placed special emphasis on capturing campaign effects.
Robert Ford is Professor of Political Science at the University of Manchester. His research interests include the politics of immigration and the radical right, public opinion on identity, race and ethnic diverity, changing public attiudes towards the welfare state, and the political impact of social norms. He has published in a wide range of outlets including the American Journal of Political Science, the British Journal of Sociology, Electoral Studies, and the European Journal of Political Research. In 2014 he was joint recipient (with Matthew Goodwin) of the Political Studies Association ‘Communicator’ prize, and in 2015 he was awarded the Political Studies Association ‘Richard Rose Prize’ for a distinctive contribution to political research by a scholar under the age of 40. His recent book on the rise of the UK Independence Party – ‘Revolt on the Right’ – won the Political Book of the Year award in 2015.
Robert Johns is Professor of Politics in the Department of Government at the University of Essex, and co-editor of the British Journal of Political Science. His research and teaching are in the fields of public opinion, political psychology and survey methodology. Robert has published the results of numerous survey experiments, especially on foreign policy attitudes and public support for war, in outlets such as the Journal of Peace Research, the Journal of Politics and International Studies Quarterly.
Robert N. Lupton is Visiting Assistant Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University, where he received his PhD in political science in 2015. He is also the Managing Editor of the American Journal of Political Science. Professor Lupton's scholarly interests include elite and mass public opinion, voting behavior, political parties and research methods. His work investigating the role of ideology and core values in American politics has [Page xxv]appeared in the British Journal of Political Science, the Journal of Politics, Political Behavior, and Political Psychology.
Romain Lachat is Assistant Professor of Political Behavior at Cevipof, the Centre for Political Research at Sciences Po, Paris. His research focuses on the comparative analysis of electoral behaviour and on political representation. He is particularly interested in the impact of political institutions and party characteristics on individual-level behavior. He has published in several international political science journals, including Comparative Political Studies, Electoral Studies, the European Journal of Political Research, Political Behavior, and West European Politics.
Rosie Campbell is Professor of Politics at Birkbeck University of London. She has recently written on what voters want from their parliamentary candidates, attitudes to MPs’ roles, the politics of diversity and gender and voting behaviour. She is the Principal Investigator of the ESRC funded Representative Audit of Britain, which surveyed all candidates standing in the 2015 British General Election, and co-investigator of a Leverhulme funded study of parliamentary candidates and MPs from 1945–2015 www.parliamentarycandidates.org.
Ruth Dassonneville is Assistant Professor in the Department of Political Science at the Université de Montréal. She holds the Canada Research Chair on Electoral Democracy to investigate the consequences of electoral dealignment. She is a member of the Centre for the Study of Democratic Citizenship (CSDC) and of the Inter-University Attraction Pole PARTIREP (Political participation and representation in modern democracies). Her work has been published in, amongst others, Electoral Studies,European Journal of Political Research,Party Politics, and West European Politics.
Shaun Bowler is Professor of Political Science at the University of California, Riverside. He is co-author of several books on the topics of voters and democratic representation. These projects including Demanding Choices: Opinion, Voting, and Direct Democracy (Michigan), Losers’ Consent: Elections and Democratic Legitimacy (Oxford) and The Limits of Electoral Reform.
Sigrid Roßteutscher is a Professor of Sociology at the Faculty of Social Sciences at the Goethe University Frankfurt/Main. She has completed her PhD at the European University Institute (EUI) in Florence, Italy and obtained her post-doctoral qualifications (Habilitation) at the University of Mannheim. Her research interests are on religion and politics, social capital and political participation, particularly electoral participation. She is a PI of the German Longitudinal Election Study (GLES), author and editor of numerous publications including Voters on the move or on the run? (Oxford University Press 2014; with [Page xxvi]Bernhard Weßels, Hans Rattinger and Rüdiger Schmitt-Beck) and has published in European Sociological Review, American Behavioral Scientist, European Political Science Review,Political Studies, European Political Studies, and German Politics.
Stefano M. Iacus is Professor of Statistics at University of Milan and visiting full professor at University of Tokyo. Former R Core Team Member (1999–2014) and now board member of R Foundation for Statistical Computing, he is also co-founder and board member of VOICES from the Blogs LTD startup company of the University of Milan. His research spans from inference for stochastic processes to empirical finance, causal inference in observational studies, social media and big data analytics, and computational statistics. He is author of several books and research articles in top journals in the field of statistics and probability as well as several R packages.
Susanne Baltes is a PhD student in Political Science at Columbia University. Her research interests lie at the intersection of political behavior, psychology, and sociology, paired with a focus on methods, especially causal inference, experimental designs, and public opinion polling while incorporating new approaches to data such as spatial analysis or text analysis. Substantively, Ms Baltes is most interested in formation and change of attitudes, opinions and behavior which includes party identity both as a perceptual screen and a predictor of political behavior as well as the meaning of party identity in multi-party systems and in the absence of a clear left-right continuum.
Take Sipma is a PhD candidate at the Department of Sociology at the Radboud University Nijmegen. In his dissertation project he focuses on the impact of micro- and macro-level economic circumstances on electoral behaviour in Europe. He studies to what extent the individual socio-economic position influences peoples likelihood to vote for populist radical right parties, and how this impact differs across economic contexts, with specific attention for the recent economic recession.
Thiago Silva is a PhD candidate in the Department of Political Science at Texas A&M University, with a master's degree in Political Science from the University of São Paulo (Brazil). He is a researcher affiliated in the Legislative Studies project at the Brazilian Center of Analysis and Planning (CEBRAP), and an associate researcher in the Project for Equity, Representation, and Governance (PERG Research Center) at Texas A&M University, and in Coaliciones Políticas en América Latina: Análisis en Perspectiva Multinivel (Multilevel Coalitions) at University of Buenos Aires. His research interests include coalition governments, government formation, presidential systems, and executive decision-making processes.[Page xxvii]
Thomas Gschwend is Professor and Chair of Quantitative Methods in the Social Sciences at the Department of Political Science, University of Mannheim where his research focuses on comparative politics, judicial politics, public opinion, political psychology as well as political methodology. He is recipient of the Gosnell Prize for Excellence in Political Methodology awarded by the APSA Political Methodology Section. His scholarly articles have been published among others in Political Analysis, Journal of Politics,British Journal of Political Science, Electoral Studies, and the European Journal of Political Research.
Thomas Zittel is Professor of Comparative Politics at Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany. He holds a PhD from the University of Mannheim, where he also completed his Habilitation. He received fellowships from the European University Institute at Florence (Fernand Braudel), the Minda de Gunzburg Centre for European Studies at Harvard University (J.F. Kennedy Memorial), and the American Political Science Association (Congressional Fellow). His research focuses on comparative politics, participatory democracy, and political representation with a special emphasis on election campaigns, legislative behavior, and electoral systems. He is the author and editor of four books and published among others in West European Politics, Electoral Studies, Party Politics, and German Politics. Prior to coming to Frankfurt, Zittel taught at Cornell University, Ludwig-Maximilians-University Munich, University of Duisburg-Essen, and University of Mannheim.
Todd Donovan is Professor in the Department of Political Science at Western Washington University, in Bellingham, Washington. He is co-author or co-editor of several books on elections and representation, and is past president of the Pacific Northwest Political Science Association. His research areas include public opinion, elections, electoral rules, representation, and direct democracy.
Ulrich Rosar is Professor of Sociology at the Heinrich-Heine-University Duesseldorf. His fields of research are political sociology, social inequality, and social prejudices.
Will Jennings is Professor of Political Science and Public Policy at the University of Southampton. His research interests are wide-ranging in the fields of public policy and political behaviour, including agenda-setting, public opinion, electoral behaviour, and policy disasters. His work has been published in a wide range of journals, such as the American Journal of Political Science, British Journal of Political Science, Public Opinion Quarterly, European Journal of Political Research, Comparative Political Studies, Political Science and Research Methods, and Governance. He is a Trustee of the UK Political Studies Association and was a member of the independent inquiry instigated by the British Polling Council and Market Research Society to investigate the [Page xxviii]performance of the pre-election polls at the 2015 general election. He is author of three books, Olympic Risks (Palgrave Macmillan, 2012), Policy Agendas in British Politics (with Peter John, Anthony Bertelli and Shaun Bevan, Palgrave Macmillan, 2013) and The Politics of Competence: Parties, Public Opinion and Voters (with Jane Green, Cambridge University Press, 2017).
William G. Jacoby is Professor of Political Science at Michigan State University and Editor of the American Journal of Political Science. He is the former Director of the Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research (ICPSR) Summer Program in Quantitative Methods of Social Research and former Editor of the Journal of Politics. Professor Jacoby received his PhD in political science from the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. His areas of professional interest include mass political behavior (currently focusing on the effects of values on public opinion and vote choice) and quantitative methodology (especially scaling methods, measurement theory, and statistical graphics).
Wouter van der Brug is Professor and Chair of Political Science at the University of Amsterdam. His research interests focus on comparative research in collective political behaviour, in particular electoral behaviour, right-wing populism, political trust and support and political parties. He publishes regularly in various international Political Science journals. His most recent (co-authored/co-edited) books are The Politicisation of Migration (2015, Routledge) and (Un)intended Consequences of European Parliament Elections (2016, Oxford UP).
Zachary Albert is a graduate student in the Department of Political Science at the University of Massachusetts, Amherst. His research focuses on the impact of institutions and laws on political parties, elections, and public policy, especially within the context of increased political polarization. He has written on the use of partisan rhetoric in presidential campaigns, the impact of campaign financing in primary elections, and the role multidimensional issue attitudes play in determining partisan identification and voting behavior. His dissertation examines the role of ideological interest groups and think tanks in providing policy ideas and expertise to aligned party actors. The project draws on theories of political parties as ‘extended party networks’ of allied groups.