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Conjunction Probability Error

The conjunction rule applies to predictive judgment or forward conditional reasoning. It is a normative rule that states that the probability of any combination of events cannot exceed the probability of constituent events. For example, the probability of picking the queen of spades from a card deck cannot exceed the probability of picking a spade and a queen from the deck. Typically, people can successfully apply the conjunction rule to transparent problems such as the card selection problem. However, there is overwhelming evidence that when problems are less transparent, people often ignore the rule and judge the conjunction of events as more probable than a constituent event, thereby committing the conjunction probability error. Because of the pervasiveness of the conjunction error and its clear ...

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