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Violations of Probability theory

Medical decision making often involves measures of uncertainty, including the explicit use of probability. To the degree uncertainty is present, the quality of a medical decision clearly depends on avoiding violation of the laws governing probability. Adherence to the laws of probability is analogous to following the laws of geometry when computing distances or the characteristics of an object, such as its volume. The basic laws of probability are quite simple, but their application can be subtle, and they are easily violated. Intuition about uncertainty is often at odds with those laws, especially when probabilities are small, conditional, or must be combined.

Violations of the laws of probability arise in other ways. For example, not using probability to measure uncertainty can be problematic in some methodologies, ...

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